NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected between 11:45 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 12:45 a.m., Sept. 24, Eastern Dayligh

[Tonka]

http://www.abc.es/20110912/ciencia/abci-nasa-advierte-caida-gran-201109121117.html
Spanish to English translation

NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

Most of the equipment will be a thousand pieces in the atmosphere, but there is a risk that some components impact somewhere yet to be determined
ABC / MADRID
Day 12/09/2011 - 1:54 p.m.


NASA report on the risk of impact of UARS
The satellite UARS (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite) NASA's probe about 6.5 tons, will precipitate out of control with the Earth in late September or early October, nearly six years after it is terminated his scientific life. The U.S. space agency has warned that, although most of the ship will break into pieces during its entry into Earth's atmosphere, not the entire team burst into the atmosphere and there is a risk, although this is minimal, that some pieces strike the Earth's surface. At the moment, it is unknown exactly where they will fall.

The satellite UARS was launched in 1991 from the shuttle Discovery to investigate the boundaries between space and our atmosphere and collect data on the damage caused to the ozone layer. The mission, with ten instruments on board, lasted for fifteen years, but 2005 ended and the satellite began slowly falling toward Earth.

NASA says the risk to the safety of people and property is "extremely small" and said that since the beginning of the Space Age in the late 50's, there are no reports of personal injury caused by space objects in your reentry to Earth. The disintegration will suffer when passing our atmosphere, the UARS should not cause a big accident in case of reaching a populated area. Chances are that it is sprayed. However, NASA does not rule out that some components can withstand the heat and impact against the surface. But where?

"If found, do not touch"
The agency recognizes that, for now, is not able to determine in what geographical area will produce the fall of the satellite, because its direction is constantly changing due to the resistance caused by solar radiation. NASA is following his path and provide information updated on its website, especially in the days before the fall.

A few days ago, the orbit of the satellite was located at an angle of 57 degrees. Any component that survives the fall atmosphere in an area between 57 degrees north latitude and 57 degrees latitude south of Ecuador , but it is impossible to pinpoint an exact location. The remains can be scattered over 500 miles.

If some components reaching impact, the agency launched a message of concern. " If you find something you think may be a piece of UARS, do not touch. Contact local authority for help. " Already know.

 

[Tonka]

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

http://www.cinemablend.com/pop/NASA...arth-Doesn-t-Know-Where-It-Landing-35003.html

NASA Says Satellite Falling To Earth, Doesn't Know Where It's Landing
Author: Allison M. Dicksonpublished: 2011-09-12 07:00:34

If you look up in the sky sometime in late September or early October and wonder whether the flaming ball you see is a bird or a plane, it's neither. It's just the UARS, or the Upper-Atmosphere Research Satellite, falling back to earth after a 14-year voyage. The only problem is trying to pointpoint where exactly the schoolbus-sized piece of space junk will land. NASA and military officials say the impact point is currently projected to be somewhere between northern Canada and southern South America, and the path of debris will be about 500-miles long....more from the source.

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

UARS Artist Concept

This conceptual image shows the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, launched on Sept. 15, 1991, by the space shuttle Discovery. Originally designed for a three-year mission, UARS measured chemical compounds found in the ozone layer, wind and temperature in the stratosphere, as well as the energy input from the sun. Together, these measurements helped define the role of Earth's upper atmosphere in climate and climate variability. The 35-foot-long, 15-foot-diameter UARS was decommissioned on Dec. 14, 2005.

Credit: NASA

> UARS Legacy Website
----------------------------------------------------------------------

UARS Updates


Update #1

Mon, 12 Sep 2011 07:29:31 AM CDT

As of Sept. 12, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 145 mi by 165 mi (235 km by 265 km). Re-entry is expected during the last week of September.


UARS Re-Entry Overview

NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, or UARS, is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere in late September or early October 2011, almost six years after the end of a productive scientific life. Although the spacecraft will break into pieces during re-entry, not all of it will burn up in the atmosphere.

The risk to public safety or property is extremely small, and safety is NASA's top priority. Since the beginning of the Space Age in the late-1950s, there have been no confirmed reports of an injury resulting from re-entering space objects. Nor is there a record of significant property damage resulting from a satellite re-entry

It is too early to say exactly when UARS will re-enter and what geographic area may be affected, but NASA is watching the satellite closely and will keep you informed. Visit this page for updates on the satellite's orbital track and predicted re-entry date.

? Re-Entry and Risk Assessment (498 KB PDF)
? Frequently Asked Questions: Orbital Debris

NASA will post updates weekly until four days before the anticipated re-entry, then daily until about 24 hours before re-entry, and then at about 12 hours, six hours and two hours before re-entry. The updates will come from the Joint Space Operations Center of U.S. Strategic Command at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., which works around the clock detecting, identifying and tracking all man-made objects in Earth orbit, including space junk.

The actual date of re-entry is difficult to predict because it depends on solar flux and the spacecraft's orientation as its orbit decays. As re-entry draws closer, predictions on the date will become more reliable.

As of Sept. 8, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 152 miles by 171 miles (245 km by 275 km) with an inclination of 57 degrees. Because the satellite's orbit is inclined 57 degrees to the equator, any surviving components of UARS will land within a zone between 57 degrees north latitude and 57 degrees south latitude. It is impossible to pinpoint just where in that zone the debris will land, but NASA estimates the debris footprint will be about 500 miles long.

If you find something you think may be a piece of UARS, do not touch it. Contact a local law enforcement official for assistance.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html

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[Tonka]

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

http://www.dawn.com/2011/09/18/nasa-satellite-pieces-to-hit-earth-in-a-week.html


Last updated: 28 mins ago


Satellite pieces to hit Earth in a week
AP (3 hours ago) Today
The seven-ton Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) is deployed by the Space Shuttle Discovery (STS-48) in this NASA handout photo dated September 1991. ? Reuters Photo


WASHINGTON: US space officials say they expect a dead satellite to fall to Earth in about a week.

NASA has been watching the 6-ton (5.4-metric ton) satellite closely. On Friday officials moved up their prediction for its arrival to Sept. 23, give or take a day...more from the source

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

UARS Updates

• Update #3
  
  Fri, 16 Sep 2011 02:12:40 PM CDT
  
  As of Sept. 16, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 140 mi by 155 mi (225 km by 250 km). Re-entry is expected Sept. 23, plus or minus a day. The re-entry of UARS is advancing because of a sharp increase in solar activity since the beginning of this week.
  

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html

 

[makoto]

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

ok ok, i will catch it in Japan
heavens-above.com http://www.heavens-above.com/gtrack.asp?date=40804.854313831&lat=34.667&lng=135.500&alt=5&loc=Osaka&TZ=JapST&satid=21701
Japan Standard Time http://www3.nict.go.jp/cgi-bin/JST_E.pl

 

[Emily]

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

Hopefully that line will have moved over by the 23rd, Makoto.

NASA seems to have just started thinking about 'disposal':

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2011/09/nasa-managers-fragmentation-risks-uars-heads-back-earth/

?As we progress forward with future programs, we should keep in mind that in systems engineering the definition of a System Life Cycle includes not just deployment and operation but also retirement and disposal,? a presentation from the meeting (available on L2) noted.

The article mentions nuclear debris that has been scattered about by the US and Russian space programs - some on land in Canada.

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

UARS - Visible Passes. http://www.heavens-above.com/PassSummary.aspx?satid=21701

Click on the date to access the Visible Pass Details That will give you a sky chart .

Then click on the Ground track for a view of the ground track during the pass, centred on your location.

 

[Emily]

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=20&month=09&year=2011

The disintegration is expected to produce a fireball that could be visible even in broad daylight.

On Sept. 15th, astrophotographer Theirry Legault video-recorded the doomed satellite during one of its last passes over France:​

​

"The satellite appears to be tumbling, perhaps because a collision with satellite debris a few years ago," notes Legault. "The variations in brightness are rapid and easily visible to the human eye." (Other observers have reported UARS flashes almost as bright as Venus.)​

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

UARS - Visible Passes. http://www.heavens-above.com/PassSummary.aspx?satid=21701

Click on the date to access the Visible Pass Details That will give you a sky chart .

Then click on the Ground track for a view of the ground track during the pass, centred on your location.

The new track would now skirt Ivory Coast, Ghana, Togo, Benin

<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>

</TD><TD vAlign=top>The highlighted circle is the region where the satellite is at least 10? above your horizon. The size of the circle depends on the height of the satellite. Solid part of orbit shows where the satellite is sunlit, and the dashed </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Map of West Africa
http://www.solarnavigator.net/geography/west_africa.htm​

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time

Update #7

Wed, 21 Sep 2011 05:35:54 PM CDT

As of 1:30 p.m. EDT Sept. 21, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 120 mi by 130 mi (190 km by 205 km). Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be passing over North America during that time period. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 24 to 48 hours.

...
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time

Update #8

Thu, 22 Sep 2011 06:44:51 AM CDT


As of 7 a.m. EDT Sept. 22, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 115 mi by 120 mi (185 km by 195 km). Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be passing over North America during that time period. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 24 to 36 hours.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth

On Sept. 15th, astrophotographer Theirry Legault video-recorded the doomed satellite during one of its last passes over France:​

​

"The satellite appears to be tumbling, perhaps because a collision with satellite debris a few years ago," notes Legault. "The variations in brightness are rapid and easily visible to the human eye." (Other observers have reported UARS flashes almost as bright as Venus.)​

There are also a series of stills showing the satellite tumbling

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time

Military Tracks Errant Satellite for NASA

By Terri Moon Cronk
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, Sept. 22, 2011 ? As a 6.5-ton NASA satellite makes its way back to Earth later this week, an Air Force space operations team in California is tracking its every move to predict when -- and possibly where -- it will re-enter the atmosphere.

The Joint Space Operations Center, part of the Joint Functional Component Command for Space at Vandenberg Air Force Base, is responsible for tracking the 22,000 objects -- mostly space junk -- that orbit Earth. The center, which reports to U.S. Strategic Command, also maintains ?space situational awareness? in support of national security, said Jeremy Eggers, public affairs director for the operations center.

As part of that mission, the center is gathering tracking data to help NASA officials analyze the satellite and its movements. NASA launched the upper-atmosphere research satellite in the early 1990s, but decommissioned it in 2005.

The projected re-entry is tomorrow afternoon, but many factors can affect the actual time, Eggers said. For example, a solar storm altered the first projected re-entry date, Sept. 26.

?The operations center has a lot of sensors looking at the ?satellite,? he said. ?As it re-enters the Earth?s atmosphere, the data will become more and more refined.?

If the satellite doesn?t incinerate when it enters Earth?s atmosphere, NASA officials expect to see 25 or 26 pieces of debris from the craft. The biggest piece is estimated to weigh 300 pounds.

No model exists to analyze or predict where the debris will fall, because there?s no way to predict how the object will break up upon re-entry, Eggers said.

So to get the best possible assessment, the Joint Space Operations Center started issuing reports to NASA four days before the expected re-entry, reporting more regularly as the satellite gets closer to Earth.

?The center will advise NASA when the satellite is two hours out from re-entering the Earth?s atmosphere, give or take 15 minutes,? said Air Force Maj. Michael Duncan, deputy chief of space situational awareness at the center.

?That 15 minutes,? he added, ?could mean the difference of 7,000 miles [in distance] and where it penetrates the Earth?s atmosphere.?

As of yesterday, Duncan said, the satellite was orbiting the Earth every 90 minutes at more than 17,000 miles per hour. It was hovering ?at 120 miles away, and dropping,? he said.

Satellites re-enter the Earth?s atmosphere routinely, Duncan said, but this craft garnered worldwide attention because it?s described as the size of a bus.

?Something of this size happens about once every year,? he said. ?But about once a week we have an object that?s usually a rocket body or something larger that?s re-entering the Earth.?

It?s highly unlikely that the satellite will cause personal injury, Eggers said.

?It?s important to note that 70 percent of the Earth is covered with water, and of the land on Earth, only about 70 percent of that is inhabited,? he said. He noted that in 50 years of the U.S. space program, there is no documentation of debris falling from space striking anyone or causing any significant damage.

After the re-entry is complete, the operations center will continue its mission of tracking and observing the 22,000 objects in space, Eggers said. ?The space situational awareness plays an important role in protecting U.S. space-based assets,? he said.

http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=65429

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time

..........Using the most recent determination of UARS' orbit - taken in the early hours of this morning - Dr Eves and a colleague have come up with their own projections of the satellite's final descent. But he explained that a spacecraft's orbit lifetime could only be estimated to about 10% accuracy.

This translates to a six-hour window either side of the expected decay which, based on a range of probabilities, would see the spacecraft splash down in the Southern Ocean.

But given the 10% accuracy figure, and the fact that UARS takes about one-and-a-half hours to complete an orbit of Earth, the satellite could come down during one of four possible orbits of Earth on Friday evening/Saturday morning.

And a number of different estimates could be produced depending what software is used to model the satellite's decay, Dr Eves explained.

Satellite decays can be affected by a number of different factors, such as the shape of the satellite and its unpredictable tumbling, as well as heating of the Earth's atmosphere by ultraviolet radiation from the Sun. .......
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15021323

 

[Tonka]

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time

???

http://america.infobae.com/notas/34184-El-Satelite-UARS-caera-en-las-costas-de-Chile
Spanish to English translation

09.22.11 | SOCIETY
The UARS satellite will fall on the coast of Chile


Reports indicate that the device, the size of a bus, will impact the local 19 hours in the South Pacific, against the Andean country. The place and exact time of the collision may be determined minutes before. Video


The private firm that follows the route of the UARS satellite, Aerospace Corporation, explained more specifically the impact would be along the coast of Chile, around 7 pm on Friday. However, the head of the company explained that determining the exact time and place is something that is not yet able to predict and know that as you get closer to the ground.

NASA had reported that the risk of damage is "extremely small", but the phenomenon creates a certain nervousness is felt in the region. The space agency took care to explain that found at an altitude of 115 miles, the atmosphere would probably reach about 17 thousand miles per hour, which to some extent simulate the fall of a rock would find enough obstacles to be stopped.

This satellite is the largest NASA has fallen to earth in an uncontrolled manner from Skylab in 1979.

The half-ton of scrap has scaring people , but thanks to a company specializing in software development for U.S. national security, Analytical Graphics (AGI), you can follow live the path of the satellite.

The video released by AGI shows the path that should have when it loses the satellite orbit.

In addition, only a couple of hours before you can know more accurately the impact site where the remains , so the U.S. space agency will provide updated information through your website and your Twitter account.

Remember that the satellite of the Upper Atmosphere Research, UARS, for its acronym in English, weighs about 6 tons and was launched into orbit in 1991 by the shuttle Discovery to explore the upper atmosphere and measurements of the ozone layer.

 

[makoto]

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time



Aerospace http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html
mext http://www.facebook.com/mextjapan
heavens-above http://www.heavens-above.com/?lat=36.067&lng=136.217&loc=Otemachi&alt=16&tz=JapST
Japan Standard Time http://www3.nict.go.jp/cgi-bin/JST_E.pl

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected late Friday, Sept. 23, or early Saturday, Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected late Friday, Sept. 23, or early Saturday, Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time

Update #10

Fri, 23 Sep 2011 09:45:08 AM CDT


As of 10:30 a.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 100 miles by 105 miles (160 km by 170 km). Re-entry is expected late Friday, Sept. 23, or early Saturday, Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time. Solar activity is no longer the major factor in the satellite?s rate of descent. The satellite?s orientation or configuration apparently has changed, and that is now slowing its descent. There is a low probability any debris that survives re-entry will land in the United States, but the possibility cannot be discounted because of this changing rate of descent. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 12 to 18 hours.
...
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html

 

[Emily]

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected late Friday, Sept. 23, or early Saturday, Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time

Re: NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected late Friday, Sept. 23, or early Saturday, Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time

Here's a website for another group monitoring the UARS path. They look credible. (I was interested to see that former astronaut Sally K. Ride is on their Board of Trustees.)

Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies

There is a legend under the path map that explains everything.

 

[Pathfinder]

NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected between 11 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 3 a.m., Sept. 24 Daylight Time (3 a.m. to 7 a.m. GMT)

NASA warns of falling a large satellite to Earth - Re-entry is expected between 11 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 3 a.m., Sept. 24 Daylight Time (3 a.m. to 7 a.m. GMT)

Update #11

Fri, 23 Sep 2011 06:30:46 PM CDT


As of 7 p.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 90 miles by 95 miles (145 km by 150 km). Re-entry is expected between 11 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 3 a.m., Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time (3 a.m. to 7 a.m. GMT). During that time period, the satellite will be passing over Canada, Africa and Australia, as well as vast areas of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans. The risk to public safety is very remote.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html