Giuseppe
Emeritus
Older Age and a Reduced Likelihood of 2009 H1N1 Virus Infection (NEJM, extract, edited)
Older Age and a Reduced Likelihood of 2009 H1N1 Virus Infection
To the Editor:
Early epidemiologic reports regarding the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus suggest that cases of infection and deaths are concentrated in adults between the ages of 20 and 40 years.1 This finding could reflect age-related differences in susceptibility or differential testing and diagnosis in this age group. Increased susceptibility to infection in young persons is characteristic of influenza pandemics and has important implications for disease-control policy.2 We examined whether the reported excess of cases in younger persons derives from testing practices or reflects a differential risk of infection in Ontario, Canada.
Our study sample included all persons who were tested for 2009 H1N1 virus infection under an enhanced, provincewide, laboratory-based surveillance regimen from April 20, 2009, to June 10, 2009. Patients with confirmed infection were compared with those who tested negative for the 2009 H1N1 virus. Using multivariate logistic regression and zero-inflated Poisson regression, we evaluated the association between age group (which was defined according to the relationship between birth year and the predominant circulating influenza strains) and the risk of infection with the 2009 H1N1 virus.
Of 11,560 patients who were tested, 1819 (15.7%) had positive results for the 2009 H1N1 virus. Persons who were born before 1957 had a reduced risk of infection, and estimates did not substantially change after adjustment for travel to Mexico, public health unit of residence, or calendar week (adjusted odds ratio for older age group, 0.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.12 to 0.18; unadjusted odds ratio; 0.17; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.21). Persons who were born between 1957 and 1975 were at intermediate risk for infection (adjusted odds ratio, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.48). Similar effects were seen in zero-inflated Poisson models that used testing volumes and population as model offsets. There was no significant relationship between age group and the risk of infection with seasonal influenza A viruses (either H3N2 or H1N1) (Figure 1).
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<cite cite="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/361/20/2000">NEJM -- Older Age and a Reduced Likelihood of 2009 H1N1 Virus Infection</cite>To the Editor:
Early epidemiologic reports regarding the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus suggest that cases of infection and deaths are concentrated in adults between the ages of 20 and 40 years.1 This finding could reflect age-related differences in susceptibility or differential testing and diagnosis in this age group. Increased susceptibility to infection in young persons is characteristic of influenza pandemics and has important implications for disease-control policy.2 We examined whether the reported excess of cases in younger persons derives from testing practices or reflects a differential risk of infection in Ontario, Canada.
Our study sample included all persons who were tested for 2009 H1N1 virus infection under an enhanced, provincewide, laboratory-based surveillance regimen from April 20, 2009, to June 10, 2009. Patients with confirmed infection were compared with those who tested negative for the 2009 H1N1 virus. Using multivariate logistic regression and zero-inflated Poisson regression, we evaluated the association between age group (which was defined according to the relationship between birth year and the predominant circulating influenza strains) and the risk of infection with the 2009 H1N1 virus.
Of 11,560 patients who were tested, 1819 (15.7%) had positive results for the 2009 H1N1 virus. Persons who were born before 1957 had a reduced risk of infection, and estimates did not substantially change after adjustment for travel to Mexico, public health unit of residence, or calendar week (adjusted odds ratio for older age group, 0.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.12 to 0.18; unadjusted odds ratio; 0.17; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.21). Persons who were born between 1957 and 1975 were at intermediate risk for infection (adjusted odds ratio, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.48). Similar effects were seen in zero-inflated Poisson models that used testing volumes and population as model offsets. There was no significant relationship between age group and the risk of infection with seasonal influenza A viruses (either H3N2 or H1N1) (Figure 1).
(...)
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