Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

[Treyfish]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

<TABLE height=768 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=600 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left width=553 colSpan=2 height=12>http://www.chp.gov.hk/view_content.asp?lang=en&info_id=9649</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left width=435><!-- Main Content Here --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=435 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=featurebluetxt vAlign=top align=left width=435>23 May 2007</TD></TR><TR><TD class=featurebluetxt vAlign=top align=left width=435 height=5>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=featuretitletxt vAlign=top align=left width=435 height=21>A case of Streptococcus suis infection under investigation
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=featurenormaltxt_en vAlign=top align=left width=435>
The Centre for Health Protection (CHP) of the Department of Health is investigating today (May 23) a case of laboratory confirmed infection of Streptococcus suis, a kind of bacteria isolated from pigs.

The case involved a 59-year-old man, living in Sheung Shui, who developed fever, chills and muscle pain on May 19. He was admitted to North District Hospital on the same day and is now in stable condition.

A CHP spokesman said he had no recent travel history. His home contact did not have any symptoms.

This is the second reported case of Streptococcus suis infection in 2007. A total of eight cases were reported in 2006 and 13 cases were reported in 2005.

The spokesman said Streptococcus suis infection may present as meningitis (inflammation of the membrane enclosing the brain), septicaemia (blood stream infection), and less commonly endocarditis (inflammation of the inner lining of the heart chambers), arthritis and bronchopneumonia (a kind of lung infection involving the bronchioles). Streptococcus suis infection could be treated with appropriate antibiotics.

To prevent the disease, people are advised to always observe personal and environmental hygiene practices and avoid contact with pigs that are sick or dead from diseases and their excreta or body fluid. If contact with pigs or raw pork is necessary, one should:

• Use protective gloves;
• Wash hands after handling pigs or raw pork; and
• Clean and cover all wounds properly.

People with suspected symptoms should consult their doctors as soon as possible and report their relevant exposure histories.

Members of the public can obtain more information on Streptococcus suis from the CHP website (http://www.chp.gov.hk). They can also obtain latest information on infectious diseases in other places on the Department's Hong Kong Travellers' Health Service website (http://www.travelhealth.gov.hk).:tiphat:
http://www.chp.gov.hk/view_content.asp?lang=en&info_id=9649</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[gsgs]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

last year it was reported at promed, that they had ruled out
African Swine Fever (AFAIR)

 

[HenryN]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

last year it was reported at promed, that they had ruled out
African Swine Fever (AFAIR)

Promed's strong suit is not in the interpretation of data.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

OK, I found it. Source is the Ministry of Agriculture:


http://www.chinanews.com.cn//kj/ylws/news/2006/09-04/784512.shtml
4.Sept.2006
After the disease outbreak, the Ministry of Agriculture sent expert
teams and work teams to disease-affected regions to diagnose the
disease and guide local prevention and control work. Laboratory
tests have ruled out zoonotic disease. At the same time, using
OIE-recommended detection methods, African Swine Fever has been ruled
out.

 

[Treyfish]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

<TABLE class=lan18 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=lan18 vAlign=bottom align=middle height=30>56 villagers hospitalized after eating pork in S China

</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ffffff height=4></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#999999 height=2></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="50%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=5></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=hui12 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle>www.chinaview.cn

2007-05-28 15:57:10 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="50%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=10></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=hui12 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle></TD><TD class=lanx12 width=160>Adjust font size:

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="50%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=10></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=lt14 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="93%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=lt14>



GUANGZHOU, May 28 (Xinhua) -- Fifty-six people were hospitalized after eating pork at a marketplace in south China's Guangdong Province on Saturday, witnesses and the local government said on Monday.
The victims, all from Yangshutou village in Caotan Township of Suixi County, suffered stomachaches and vomiting on Saturday night, said a villager on condition of anonymity.
He said a "temple fair" - similar to a village fete - selling snacks and small commodities was held in the village on Saturday afternoon. Organizers of the event slaughtered a pig, cooked it and rationed out the meat to the villagers.
"Many people fell sick after they ate the pork for dinner that night," the villager said.
He said 12 of the cases were serious and had to receive emergency treatment at the county hospital, while all the others were being treated at the local clinic.
The Central Hospital in Zhanjiang City and the county hospital in Suixi have sent a team of 80 medical workers to help with the rescue work at the village clinic. Hospital sources said all the patients were in "stable condition" on Monday. The local health authority suspects the illnesses were caused by mass food poisoning and has launched an investigation:tiphat:


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-05/28/content_6164424.htm

 

[Treyfish]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="99%" align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=dt>

Chinese Premier pledges to stabilize soaring pork prices​

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=dtime>

Latest Updated by 2007-05-28 09:12:53​

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=dc>

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (front, in white shirt) visits the pigsty of a farmer in Sanqu Village of Xiwu Town, Xingping City in northwest China's Shaanxi Province, May 26, 2007. Wen visited Shaanxi Saturday for an investigation into pig-raising and pork market. (Xinhua Photo/Yao Dawei)​

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has asked local governments at all levels to ensure the supply of pork and maintain market order amid rising concerns over soaring pork price.
"We have noticed the recent rise in pork price, and the government is going all out to ensure the supply of pork and keep it affordable," Wen told a crowd in a supermarket during his visit in Xi'an on Saturday for an investigation into pig-raising and pork market.
A resident of Xi'an in the supermarket told Wen they can still afford the pork price for the moment, however they feel pressured from further hikes.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, in April live pigs nationwide were priced 71.3 percent higher than a month earlier, and pork, 29.3 percent higher, largely due to tightened supply.
The price of pork in Xi'an, capital of Shaanxi Province, has risen from 14 yuan (1.8 U.S. dollars) a kilogram to 17 yuan (2.2 U.S. dollars) within a few days.
In Beijing, the pork price went up more than 30 percent in recent days, while wholesale prices in Shanghai has hit 16 yuan (2.1 U.S. dollars) per kilogram, a record high for a decade, up 20percent month-on-month.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (C) talks with customers on the pork prices at a supermarket in Xi'an, capital of northwest China's Shaanxi Province, May 26, 2007. Wen visited Shaanxi Saturday for an investigation into pig-raising and pork market. (Xinhua Photo/Yao Dawei)​

The number of live pigs in stock in the village declined from more than 7,000 to more than 3,500 since the second half of last year due to price drops, the head of Sanqu Village in Shaanxi's Xingping City, which focuses on pig-raising, told Wen.
"Pig raisers kept making losses over the past couple years and they are reluctant to raise pigs. This led to a marginal decline in population of live pigs for the current year," according to Xu Lianzhong, a senior economist with the price supervision center under the National Development and Reform Commission.
The outbreak of blue ear disease, also known as POrcine REproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), which caused many pig deaths and culling was an immediate cause of a short supply, according to Xu.
Wen said the pig production and market supply of pork is directly related to people's livelihood, and urged local governments to take relevant measures.
Subsidizes should be offered to farmers who raise sows, the Premier said.
He also required the local governments to keep a closer eye on the quality, price and quarantine inspection of pork to maintain an orderly market.
Li Xizhen, head of the market monitoring department under the Ministry of Commerce said earlier, "The Ministry will follow closely changes on the pork market. National pork reserves will be used if necessary."
It would take about a year to resume the original stock of 7,000 pigs at Sanqu Village, local farmers said. :tiphat: http://www.newsgd.com/news/picstories/200705280008.htm
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[wdcare]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

Just noticing the customer's purse held along with the tongs ready to pick up unwrapped meat.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

just noticing 2 of the pigs with blue spots on their backs just as
the pigs in the river from the earlier picture.

 

[hawkeye]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

those spots could just be regular pigment (no pun intended), pigs can be "spotted", but they do look a little blue

just noticing 2 of the pigs with blue spots on their backs just as
the pigs in the river from the earlier picture.

 

[Treyfish]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

Date: Tue, 29 May 2007
Source: Financial Times [edited]
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/202a6dcc-0d81-11dc-937a-000b5df10621.html>


Pork crisis sparks China inflation fears
----------------------------------------
A disease killing millions of pigs in China has sharply lifted the
price of pork, the country's staple meat, fueling fears about
inflation and prompting calls from Beijing's top leadership for
increased production of the meat. Wen Jiabao, the premier, provided
confirmation of the seriousness of the crisis with a weekend [26-27
May 2007] visit to a market in Shaanxi, where he said farmers should
help "resolve the problem" of providing meat for China's 1.3 billion people.

Pork prices have risen as much as 30 percent in Chinese cities over
the last week [20-26 May 2007]. According to the agriculture
ministry, wholesale prices for pigs have gone up even more, rising
71.3 percent since April [2007]. China's 500 million-odd pigs are the
country's most important source of affordable meat, and any sustained
interruption in supply would be a big political problem for the government.

While the price of feed, such as corn, has risen, the main culprit is
an epidemic of a mysterious illness known as "blue ear" disease, as
well as the more common foot-and-mouth affliction.

"I have heard it has killed as many as 20 million hogs," an industry
executive said.

The government has not issued any estimate of how many pigs have been
struck by the disease and China's size and the number of small
producers make it difficult quickly to obtain reliable figures. But
the impact of the shortage of pork is apparent in many areas, from
sausage makers switching meats, to rising offal prices, and attempts
by Hong Kong to import meat from South America.

China cannot easily find competitively priced pork to replace the
shortfall at home, because of its own health-related restrictions on
imports from South America, where prices are relatively low. US and
European pork is more expensive. The government has a "strategic pork
reserve," established in the late 1990s, including both frozen stocks
and access to pig farms, which could provide a buffer.

"We are considering releasing some of these reserves into the market
in certain targeted areas in order to reduce soaring prices," said Li
Xizhen, of the Ministry of Commerce. "We will not be giving free meat
to people, but will sell pork and use market mechanisms to bring down
volatility." Mr. Wen, in his visit to the market, said the government
was "going all out to ensure the supply of pork and keep it affordable."

Soaring pork prices are also expected to add to inflation, already
under pressure from rising food prices in other areas.

"The surge in pork prices will likely push year-on-year CPI [consumer
price index] inflation to above 4 percent very soon," said Hong
Liang, of Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong, in a research note. "Meat
constitutes about 7 percent of the CPI basket, and its price
pressures are likely to spread to eggs,fish and other food products."

Although 4 percent is above the central bank's unofficial "tolerance
rate" of 3 percent, core inflation remains low.

[Byline: Richard McGregor in Beijing and Jamil Anderlini in Hong Kong]

--
Communicated by:
FMD News
FMD Surveillance and Modeling Laboratory
University of California at Davis
<http://>http://fmd.ucdavis.edu>
<fmdnews@ucdavis.edu>

[The disease which obtained in China the name "High fever disease"
(HFD) since its 1st known detection in mid-2006, was initially
attributed to a mix, consisting of infection of Porcine Reproductive
and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), classical swine fever (CSF) and
porcine circovirus (PCV-2), and probably additional agents; see
China's notification to the OIE of 14 Sep 2006, included in posting:
<http://www.promedmail.org/pls/promed/f?p=2400:1202:7158602793785135397::NO::F2400_P1202_CHECK_DISPLAY,F2400_P1202_PUB_MAIL_ID:X,34550>

As recently suggested (posting 20070525.1675), African swine fever
(ASF) deserves being added to the HFD differential diagnosis list;
Foot and mouth disease, of which the virus serotypes Asia 1 and O of
are known to be widely distributed in China, should be included as well.

The major economical losses justify enhanced efforts to obtain a
clear identification of HFD's causal agent(s), which -- hopefully --
will lead to subsequent effective control of the devastating
syndrome. - Mod.AS].:tiphat:
http://www.promedmail.org/pls/prome..._BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,37623

 

[hawkeye]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

the mysterious illness has been going on for months. How can they insure that no infected swine entered the pork reserve? How long can frozen pork last, 6mos?

The government has a "strategic pork
reserve," established in the late 1990s, including both frozen stocks
and access to pig farms, which could provide a buffer.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

they are just only talking about the pork-prices,
not the disease. To solve the problem they must attack the disease
not this month's pork-prices.
But everything about the disease remains mysterious.
How could they hide 50 million infected pigs from the press ?
And why ? We must launch an international research effort,
cooperate to solve the problem. Can we be certain it restricts to
pigs ? Imagine such a virus once establishes in humans...
The different viruses somehow seem to cooperate, but how and
why several viruses are needed is unclear.
How much swine-influenza is involved ? That's a great reservoir
for flu-evolution and opportunity for H5N1 to adapt to mammals.
They should have thousands of virus sequences meanwhile,
but are those being published ? And if not, why ? Fear that
foreign companies develope a vaccine in competition to
Chinese companies ?
Apparantly they have a vaccine, but it doesn't work - as reported
in another post. Seems that one or more of the involved viruses
have mutated, it's "blue ear" now, from last year's "high fever",
also dramatically more infective now.

How many BF-outbreaks may they be hiding, when they can hide
20million dead pigs and people just get knowledge about the
extend of the problem from meat prices ?

And why do Reuters etc. still talk about 1 million dead pigs ?
Has this 20million figure been mentioned or quoted in any
non-Chinese source ? Why not ? Not important ?
I'd expected it to be in the headlines worldwide...

will it stay in China or will it spread worlwide ? Thinking in flu-terms
it might expose to almost all pigs in the world, infect 30% and kill
10% ... hopefully it goes down in CFR at least.

 

[MHSC]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

Just noticing the customer's purse held along with the tongs ready to pick up unwrapped meat.

Most of the time they don't use the tongs, they just grab the unwrapped meat with their bare hands, sorting through it touching several other pieces before moving on and touching the counters, carts, shelves, other meat items, etc. Think about how many items you touch while in a grocery store.

just noticing 2 of the pigs with blue spots on their backs just as
the pigs in the river from the earlier picture.

That blue that you are seeing may or may not be related to the disease.

When I was a kid in Indiana, we would go to my cousins farm and help paint the piglets, blue paint was commonly used for numbering the pigs for record keeping such as immunizations. They may still be using it on pigs, especially in the poorer regions. There is also a breed called "Blue Butt".

I noticed today that sliced ham here in Shanghai has gone up from 16 rmb ($2.09) per pound, to 18 rmb ($2.35) this week. I don't know if 16 rmb was high to begin with, I don't normally pay attention to prices.

 

[Treyfish]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

UNDIAGNOSED DISEASE, PORCINE - CHINA (07): REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
A ProMED-mail post
<http://www.promedmail.org>
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
<http://www.isid.org>

[1]
Date: Wed 30 May 2007
Source: Shanghai Daily [edited]
<http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/?id=317777>


China is making a count of the number of pigs dead from blue ear
disease and will publish the figure soon, a senior official with the
country's Ministry of Agriculture said today [30 May 2007].

"It's true that China has blue ear disease, but it's not true, as
some foreign media have reported, that the disease has killed 20
million pigs," Li Jinxiang, vice director general with Veterinary
Bureau of the ministry, told China Business News yesterday [29 May
2007]. "These reports are groundless," Li said. [On 29 May 2007,] the
Financial Times linked China's recent pork price hike with the
outbreak of blue ear disease, also known as porcine reproductive and
respiratory syndrome [PRRS]. It also said that many pigs had died
from foot-and-mouth disease [FMD], which was another cause of the
price hike. "However, the report provided no evidence except some
guess-work figures from a so-called 'insider'," Li told the newspaper.

The disease may lead to dead fetuses or abortion, and piglets have
almost no resistance to the disease. The mortality for infected
piglets is 50 percent.

[In 2006,] an outbreak of blue ear disease was one of the causes of a
short supply of live pigs, a statement by the State Council said [on
20 May 2007.]

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, in April [2007], live pigs
nationwide were priced 71.3 percent higher than a year earlier
[2006], and pork, 35.5 percent higher, largely due to tightened supply.

[On Mon 28 May 2007,] Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao, asked local
governments at all levels to ensure the supply of pork and maintain
market order amid rising concerns over the soaring price of pork.

The disease is under control, Li said. Pork prices in northern
China's Liaoning and Jilin provinces have seen some drops.

[Byline: Alice Gu]

--
Communicated by:
FMD News
FMD Surveillance and Modeling Laboratory
University of California at Davis
<http://fmd.ucdavis.edu>
<fmdnews@ucdavis.edu>

******
[2]
Date: Wed 30 May 2007
Source: China Business News [in Chinese, trans. Rappt.DS, edited]
<http://www.china-cbn.com/s/n/000002/20070530/000000068013.shtml>


Yesterday [29 May 2007], an official from the Ministry of Agriculture
denied foreign media reports that pig blue ear disease and other
illnesses have caused the deaths of 20 million pigs. In a report
yesterday [29 May 2007,] on the price of pork in China, England's
Financial Times said that although the price of corn and other feed
has risen, the main culprits are the spread of blue ear disease and
the more common foot-and-mouth disease. The article also quoted "an
industry executive" who said, "I have heard it has killed as many as
20 million hogs."

Jinxiang Li, Vice Chief of the Ministry of Agriculture's Veterinary
Bureau, told China Business News that although there is in fact pig
blue ear disease, [with regard to] the report's statement that the
disease has killed as many as 20 million pigs, "This is impossible."

Jinxiang Li said [the Ministry of Agriculture] is already looking
into it and the mortality rate from pig blue ear disease is not this
high. At present, the Ministry of Agriculture is putting the data in
order and will release it at the appropriate time.

Blue ear disease is an infectious disease characterized by a
reproductive disorder, premature delivery, miscarriage, and
stillbirth in hogs, as well as abnormal breathing in piglets.
Morbidity can reach 100 percent among piglets with mortality of about
50 percent. Miscarriage and stillbirth in sows can be above 30
percent. The threat to the pig industry is high.

In the summer and fall of 2006, pig a "high fever disease" occurred
in some parts of China. Later, it was confirmed that the disease [was
the highly pathogenic pig blue ear disease.] It has had a certain
level of disturbance on pig stocks.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture's "National Agricultural
Products Wholesale Market Information Net" survey, national wholesale
pork prices averaged 12.99 RMB/kg [USD 1.69882], up 35.5 percent from
the same period. [RMB (renminbi), literally "people's currency", is
the official currency in the mainland of the People's Republic of
China (PRC), whose principal unit is the yuan. - Mod.AS]

Yesterday [29 May 2007], the General Office of the State Council
issued a notice to ensure pork supply. The notice stated that the
rise in pork prices is mainly due to the effect of last year's [2006]
epidemic. Stocks of sows and pigs fell at the end of the year,
leading to a reduction in supply. The notice requested all areas to
strengthen disease prevention and control and encourage development
of standardized farming to ease market effects due to fluctuations in
pork production.

Information from the Ministry of Agriculture states that the number
of sick pigs is now substantially reduced and the epidemic is cooling
down.:magnify: Recently, agricultural departments launched supervision and
inspection work to prevent and control the highly pathogenic pig blue
ear disease.

[On 29 May 2006], Xinhua reported that pork prices in Liaoning and
Jilin Provinces are stable and trending down.

--
Communicated by:
ProMED-mail Rapporteur Dan Silver

******
[3]
Date: Wed 30 May 2007
Source: Xiaoshan Daily News [in Chinese, trans. Rappt.DS, edited]
<http://www.xsnet.cn/xs/cj/2007/5/30/365357.shtml>


Since Spring Festival this year [2007], high fever disease-type blue
ear disease of unknown origin has occurred in some parts of China,
with [numerous cases of] miscarriage among sows and high mortality
among piglets. Nationally, stocks of meat pigs declined 20-25 percent
and, as a result, pork prices are steadily rising.

--
Communicated by:
ProMED-mail Rapporteur Dan Silver

[The flood of newswires, originating from various (official,
semi-official, unofficial, central, provincial, and foreign) sources,
with contradictory pieces of information on the so-called swine high
fever disease (SHFD), could be put on hold -- for the benefit of all,
but particularly of the Chinese economy and China's reputation --
if/when detailed, 1st hand, authoritative results of laboratory
investigations from all affected provinces become available.
Preferably, the testing should cover the entire spectrum of disease
agents that have been mentioned as potential contributors to SHFD.
The diseases mentioned in China's OIE (World Organisation for Animal
Health) notification of September 2006, (ProMED-mail posting
20060924.2732), were porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome
(PRRS), classical swine fever (CSF), porcine circovirus (PCV-2),
Aujeszky's disease, _Streptococcus suis_, pasteurellosis, and porcine
contagious pleuropneumonia (PCP). The additional potential disease
agents, indicated by external experts, were avian influenza (AI),
African swine fever (ASF), and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), of which
the serotypes Asia 1 and O are known to circulate in China and some
of its neighbours).

Notably, PRRS has reportedly been causing, recently, considerable
losses in Northern Viet Nam as well. - Mod.AS]:tiphat:

http://www.promedmail.org/pls/prome..._BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,37631

 

[gsgs]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

it was not "some foreign media" who first reported the 20 million figure,
it was Guangxi-News. (censured by Xinhua).

> is not this high

how high is it then ?

> will release it at the appropriate time.

how do they measure "appropriateness" ?

> 20 million pigs, "This is impossible."

what is the largest "possible" number ?

> Nationally, stocks of meat pigs declined 20-25 percent

that's about 100million pigs, right ?

> rise in pork prices is mainly due to the effect of last year's [2006] epidemic

...which was reported as 1 million dead pigs. Out of 500 million pigs in China.
Why then should prices rise one year later by 70% ? Markets anticipate
future events, not events which are one year old.

> certain level of disturbance on pig stocks.

"certain level of disturbance" ... converting these Chinese units into
numbers ...involves guesswork... 10million pigs dead

> Morbidity can reach 100 percent among piglets with mortality of about
> 50 percent. Miscarriage and stillbirth in sows can be above 30 percent

> disease is under control, Li said

now we may guess, what an uncontrolled disease might do in China...

> guess-work figures from a so-called 'insider'

I would love to hear the guess-work from the insider Li. It can be corrected later.
When there is none guesswork from insiders at all, we have to listen to the
guesswork from 'insiders', we have to watch the pig-prizes and draw
our conclusions so to finally ("at appropriate time") get an official figure.

 

[Treyfish]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

Official denies report of pig deaths caused by blue-ear disease

<!-- info start-->
May 31, 2007 19:19 Beijing Time

A senior Chinese veterinary official has denied a foreign media report that "blue-ear disease" has caused the death of 20 million pigs.
Li Jinxiang, deputy director of the veterinary bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture, said that there had been an outbreak of blue-ear disease but "it is impossible" that so many pigs have died.
In an FT.com report on Wednesday, an unidentified industry executive was quoted as saying "I have heard that it (blue-ear disease) has killed as many as 20m hogs."
Li said he was aware of the report, but the death rate from the disease was not that dramatic.
He added that the Ministry of Agriculture is sorting out statistics and will release them soon, according to Thursday's China Business News.
Blue-ear disease is an animal epidemic that can seriously endanger the pig-breeding industry. It broke out in some areas of China in the summer-autumn period of 2006, causing a temporary shortage of piglets, the report says.
Information from the Ministry of Agriculture said that the number of pigs infected has dropped sharply and the epidemic situation is stable. :magnify:
In April this year, the average wholesale price of pork was 12.99 yuan/kg, up 35.5 percent year-on-year. :tiphat: http://www.jongonews.com/articles/07/0531/16630/MTY2MzAqI8qsWMo.html

 

[Treyfish]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

Date: Mon 4 Jun 2007
Source: Reuters Foundation AlertNet [edited]
<http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/PEK1586.htm>


Beijing's 1st report on the scale of an outbreak that has disrupted the pig
industry and caused pork prices to soar, said a contagious pig disease
killed 18 000 in the 1st 5 months of 2007.

A report on the agriculture ministry website (<http://www.agri.gov.cn>, in
Chinese), said the blue ear disease outbreak had infected 45 000 pigs
through May [2006], of which 18 000 had died. It was the 1st official
assessment since an outbreak of the disease a year ago [2006] killed what
feed industry officials estimate at as many as one million pigs.

The ministry did not say how many pigs had died last year [2006], but noted
the highly contagious disease had "caused heavy losses to the pig breeding
industry".

The widespread disease has partly contributed to the soaring domestic pork
prices -- and has put pressure on national inflation levels -- prompting
Premier Wen Jiabao to visit a pig farm last month [May 2007], where he
pledged to ensure meat supplies for the poor.

The disease, caused by a variation of porcine reproductive and respiratory
syndrome (PRRS) virus, was still being found among pigs in some provinces,
according to the ministry. It did not elaborate.

The ministry urged all local governments to boost vaccination efforts and
to take more preventive measures to stop the spread of the disease.

In a separate report, the agriculture minister, Sun Zhengcai, toured the
northern province of Shandong and urged local governments to encourage
farmers to raise more pigs. "Hog production and supply not only relate to
the people's life and farmers' income, but a situation as a whole," Sun was
quoted as saying in a report posted on the ministry website.

Since the outbreak, many farmers have been unwilling to breed more pigs for
fear of losing money because of the high mortality rate from the disease
and because of high feed prices.

--
communicated by:
ProMED-mail rapporteur Mary Marshall

[China reported to the OIE (Office Internation des Epizooties; World
Organization for Animal Health) earlier this year (2007), a single outbreak
of PRRS, in the village of Laosi, Guandong Province, starting on 23 Apr
2007, confirmed and reported on 9 May 2007. The report mentioned an
apparent morbidity rate of 55 per cent and a fatality rate of 20 per cent.
See details at
<http://www.oie.int/wahid-prod/public.php?page=single_report&pop=1&reportid=5387>.

The current, apparently official, publication speaks about a "widespread"
disease "in some provinces". It mentions figures which represent a case
fatality rate of 40 per cent while no data related to the morbidity rate
are disclosed. The number of infected (45 000) and dead (18 000) pigs are
significantly lower than figures cited in previous, unofficial
communications on the so-called "swine high fever disease" (SHFD), of which
PRRS was regarded to be one of several contributing causal factors.
According to the unofficial data, SHFD has been spreading since 2006 within
at least 10 provinces, with death figures mounting to the millions, causing
heavy economic losses.

The flood of newswires, originating from various (official, semi-official,
unofficial, central, provincial, and foreign) sources, with contradictory
pieces of information on SHFD, its etiology and distribution, could be put
on hold if/when detailed, 1st hand, authoritative results of laboratory
investigations from all affected provinces become available, pertaining to
the entire range of potential causal agents and preferably officially
submitted to the OIE.

A request for information on the described, so far undiagnosed porcine
syndrome spreading in China, was already posted by ProMED-mail on 30 May
2007; the request is hereby repeated. It would also be interesting to note
which vaccine is the one recommended for use by the Chinese authorities;
several modified-live virus (MLV) and killed virus PRRS vaccines are in use
in the USA and Europe. - Mod.AS]:tiphat:

http://www.promedmail.org/pls/prome..._BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,37703

 

[gsgs]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

ahh, 45000 cases - what is it ? Confirmed cases by some laboratory ?
Was that the number which Li had in mind, when he said :
"20 million is impossible" ?

We need estimates, how many pigs died from blue ear disease
disease this year or any disease.

The official total number of pigs in China was stable or slightly
increased in 1st quarter of 2007.
What's the estimate for the 2nd quarter ?

If it's just the "fear of the disease" which causes farmers to
stop pig-breeding, then why didn't it affect the 1st quarter's statistics ?

 

[Niko]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

ahh, 45000 cases - what is it ? Confirmed cases by some laboratory ?
Was that the number which Li had in mind, when he said :
"20 million is impossible" ?

We need estimates, how many pigs died from blue ear disease
disease this year or any disease.

The official total number of pigs in China was stable or slightly
increased in 1st quarter of 2007.
What's the estimate for the 2nd quarter ?

If it's just the "fear of the disease" which causes farmers to
stop pig-breeding, then why didn't it affect the 1st quarter's statistics ?

Good questions. Answers are unlikely.

 

[cartski]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

Could someone more knowledgeable than me about diseases (that is, nearly everyone who's gone past intro Biology) please remind me why the 20M figure is important (aside from the obvious social impact)?

Is the prevalence of this disease somehow linked to the development of AI? Or some other disease with pandemic potential? Could the genetics from blue ear mutate or recombine with H?n? to create something even more disastrous?

I do care on a humanitarian level for the impact this disease must be having on the Chinese people. But I just need reminding on how it's connected to a human viral pandemic.

Thanks,

J.