Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

[HenryN]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

gsgs-
I'm not sure where you're getting the 20MM number. This link you reference is from 2006:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=9923

All only number I'm seeing with relation to this year (May outbreak), is 1MM, with regards to Jiangxi Province.

On the morning of 11 May 2007, personnel from the Nanning Municipal
Agricultural Bureau spread out to major pig-farming counties to
[organize] comprehensive pig "high fever disease" prevention and
control measures among veterinary departments at all levels,
[including] strengthening immunization supervision. [The same day],
sources in relevant departments said that pig "high fever disease"
has occurred in the past several months in Anhui, Hunan, Guangdong,
Shandong, Liaoning, Jilin, and other provinces, and has caused the
deaths of more than 20 million pigs, with extremely heavy economic losses.

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

Location of provinces with PRRSV mentioned by ProMED in post #57 above.

 

[hawkeye]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

WHOA!! I totally didn't see that
Thanks for pointing it out.
Very worrisome especially with the "rumor" of infant deaths.

 

[hawkeye]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

New vaccine unveiled to fight pig disease in S China

BEIJING, May 10 (Xinhua) -- Chinese veterinary officials on Thursday announced the development of a brand new diagnostic reagent and vaccine, which they said made them confident of ending an outbreak of a deadly pig disease in the south of the country.

The Ministry of Agriculture said in a statement that a mass immunization of pigs would be completed as early as possible because imminent high summer temperatures and humidity could help spread the outbreak of blue ear disease.

The disease -- officially named porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome -- was not infectious for humans and is listed by the government as one of the 61 class II animal epidemic diseases that must be brought under immediate control.

The vaccine invented by the Chinese Center of Animal Disease Control and Prevention and the China Institute of Veterinary Drug Control would see its first use in the epidemic-stricken Guangdong province.

"We will speed up the production and distribution of vaccines and simultaneously tighten quality supervision," said the ministry statement.

The ministry required veterinary departments to stay on high alert for the disease and immediately report suspect cases.

"Once the virus mutates, it will become more pathogenic and more difficult to cure," it warned.

A major problem was the poor breeding conditions as most farmers tend to raise their pigs in open places and pens are poorly equipped with anti-epidemic measures.

The frequent transportation of live pigs might also facilitate the spread of the disease, it said.

A nationwide survey would be carried out to ensure preventive measures and emergency action plans were implemented in counties and townships.

Chinese epidemiologists said the disease arrived in China in the mid 1990s and the latest outbreak in Silao Town of Yunfu City was caused by a deadly mutation of the virus.

More than 300 pigs died after they stopped eating, became feverish and started hemorrhaging at the end of April.

According to Yunfu government, the infected pigs were raised by individual rural households rather than on industrial pig farms and were not exported to Hong Kong or overseas markets.

The government said it had delivered two reports to the World Organization for Animal Health and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

 

[cartski]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

Any estimate of how many pigs there are in these areas? If 20M is the number, what's the mortality ratio?

What's the price of pork on the street? At 20M, it should have gone way up with a sizeable proportion culled by the PRRS disease.

If a pig is a viral melting pot, and there are two or three other viruses that are rampantly infecting animals, can the characteristics of a resulting mutation, recombination or black magic be foreseen, at least in gross terms? (aside from "very bad")

J.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

the 20 million must be a translation error

 

[HenryN]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

the 20 million must be a translation error

Based on?

 

[gsgs]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

couldn't be confirmed.
I didn't see it anywhere else.

With such a big number there would be more bruhaha.

 

[HenryN]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

couldn't be confirmed.
I didn't see it anywhere else.

With such a big number there would be more bruhaha.

Please.

 

[Johnny Yuma]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

Most people are either too self-absorbed----or too busy trying to survive each day---to bruhaha.

For instance, here's a number---where is the bruhaha?

$$$$$$$$2.9 TRILLION USA 2008 Budget$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8P6DSTOI.htm

 

[gsgs]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

one million according to Reuters, and that's for a whole year,
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/HKG333549.htm

> has gone on for more than a year, spread to various provinces
> and wiped out as many as a million pigs in China.


promed had said:

> has occurred in the past several months in Anhui, Hunan, Guangdong,
> Shandong, Liaoning, Jilin, and other provinces, and has caused the
> deaths of more than 20 million pigs,


maybe one of the toggle-texters can search for it in Chinese ?
what was "pig high fever disease" in Chinese ?
(so we can type it into
http://news.google.com/news?ned=hk
http://news.google.com/news?ned=cn
http://news.google.com/news?ned=tw



http://www.aasp.org/news/story.php?id=2398




猪高热病 : pig high fever

http://news.google.com/news?hl=zh-CN&ned=cn&q=%D6%ED%B8%DF%C8%C8%B2%A1&btnG=%CB%D1%CB%F7%D7%CA%D1%B6

http://news.google.com/news?hl=zh-CN&ned=cn&q=%D6%ED%B8%DF%C8%C8%B2%A1&ie=GB2312&scoring=n

2000多万 : more than 20 million (babelfish)

http://news.google.com/news?hl=zh-TW&ned=tw&q=2000%A6h%C9E&ie=Big5&scoring=n


多 : more
百 : 100
万 : 10000

2000万 : 20 million
20 百万 : 20 million

 

[Johnny Yuma]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

let it go

 

[HenryN]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

one million according to Reuters, and that's for a whole year,
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/HKG333549.htm

> has gone on for more than a year, spread to various provinces
> and wiped out as many as a million pigs in China.


promed had said:

> has occurred in the past several months in Anhui, Hunan, Guangdong,
> Shandong, Liaoning, Jilin, and other provinces, and has caused the
> deaths of more than 20 million pigs,


maybe one of the toggle-texters can search for it in Chinese ?
what was "pig high fever disease" in Chinese ?
(so we can type it into
http://news.google.com/news?ned=hk
http://news.google.com/news?ned=cn
http://news.google.com/news?ned=tw



http://www.aasp.org/news/story.php?id=2398

Lets be serious. A wire service report of one million is certainly far from definitive or evidence that the 20 million MUST be wrong.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

sorry, "MUST" was mistranslated. In English "should" should be better.
Anyway, I think it's wrong. Evidence, no proof.
Let's look for other statements about the number of dead pig.
20 million would be very worrying, even if it's not flu.
Dan Silver and the Promed people should have become sceptic with that number.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

all I found is this:

http://www.guilinlife.com/news/news/shownews.asp?NewsID=135011
>Newspaper news (reporter once four Dan intern Zhang Gui's Li)
>the live pig "the high fever" since last May the partial areas has
>appeared south our country, now had 15 provinces (area) to
>have the epidemic situation, causes more than 20 million live
>pigs deaths


but they seem to refer to the Guangxi-news article which had said:

>sources in relevant departments said that pig "high fever disease"
>has occurred in the past several months in Anhui, Hunan, Guangdong,
>Shandong, Liaoning, Jilin, and other provinces, and has caused the
>deaths of more than 20 million pigs, with extremely heavy economic losses.


but they say since last May not "past several months"
and they give 15 provinces in the South, while Guangxi-news
has 6 provinces ("and others") 3 of them in the North.

20 million dead pigs since last May in whole China is still a lot.
They have 500-800 million pigs in total.
Assume 40%CFR, that's 50million pigs infected nationwide
or about 10%.

Will the virus spread to other countries worldwide ?
That could give a viral pig pandemic with 40%CFR.
Compare with the feared human H5N1 - pandemic ....

OTOH, it could remain restricted to China or even to some provinces.
But maybe only because pig-movement is restricted, controlled.
Pigs can be quarantined.

With that amount of infected pigs, I assume that all Chinese
pig-exports are affected.


...provided the 20million is correct. We just have Guangxinews and Guilinlife
Also, remember that report about the 300 dead pigs ?
Why did they even mention 300 ?


----------------
20% CFR, I read now at PFI

 

[gsgs]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

from Caonacl:



http://www.boston.com/news/world/as...a_issues_draft_rules_for_pig_slaughterhouses/
(REUTERS/Kin Cheung) May 9, 2007 BEIJING (Reuters)
About one million pigs have died from a variation of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome virus in an outbreak that began in May last year.
The virus is unlikely to spread to humans, leading veterinarians said on Wednesday.
...
China has not published figures for how many pigs had died from the disease, and the Agriculture Ministry has declined to comment on many occasions.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/HKG333549.htm
Chinese farmers count cost of pig disease
18 May 2007 06:31:05 GMT Source: Reuters By John Ruwitch
YUNFU, China, May 18 (Reuters) -
...
Experts and industry sources say an epidemic of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), or blue ear disease, has gone on for more than a year, spread to various provinces and wiped out as many as a million pigs in China.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

credits to aurora
Published on Taipei Times
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2007/05/11/2003360398
PRC officials urge vigilance after pig disease outbreak

AGENCIES, BEIJING
Friday, May 11, 2007, Page 5
China's agriculture ministry said yesterday it had called on local governments to report all new cases of a disease that some industry officials estimate has wiped out as many as a million pigs in China in the last year.[snip]

The ministry has not said how many pigs have died from the disease since the first outbreak was reported a year ago in Jiangxi Province. But industry officials say the disease is now prevalent across the country, with estimates of pig deaths ranging from half a million to 1 million.
[snip]

The ministry has successfully worked out a new type of vaccine against the disease and would speed up production to apply to pigs in some key suffering areas, it said. It did not elaborate.[snip]

Mortality rates of as high as 50 percent had led farmers to abandon breeding and the reduction of the pig population has caused a heavy blow to the feed industry.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[HenryN]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

sorry, "MUST" was mistranslated. In English "should" should be better.
Anyway, I think it's wrong. Evidence, no proof.
Let's look for other statements about the number of dead pig.
20 million would be very worrying, even if it's not flu.
Dan Silver and the Promed people should have become sceptic with that number.

The dead pigs in China are not new. There were similar stories last year. The various stories indicate the numbers are "hundreds", "thousands", "up to a million", and 20 million. These numbers indicate that the numbers in the media reports are "soft".

Of all of the reports, the one with the strongest scientific background is ProMed. Although their commentraies on H5N1 are frequently little more than the commentator's personal views, ProMed tends to be quite conservative. The likelihood that the 20 million cited is a bad translation is remote. It's incorrectness is neither a "must" or a "should".

China is not known for its transparency. In the latest outbreaks in Guangdong, government officials are denying deaths, as media reports show photos of dead pigs floating down the river.

The real issue is the etiology of the diseas. In the past, two viruses and a bacterium have been detected, but the liklihood that all three are secondary infections remains high, since the symptoms and severity of the pig illnesses do not match prior cases involving these three organisms.

Thus, there is little data to support the above organisms, nor is there any data supporting the claim that the report citing 20 million dead pigs is incorrect.

 

[Treyfish]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=564 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=txt18 align=middle colSpan=3 height=50>Blue Ear Pig Disease high season is around the corner </TD></TR><TR><TD class=black14 align=middle colSpan=3 height=30>

新华每日电讯2版​

Xinhua Daily Telegraph Release 2 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#336699><TD class=grey12 align=middle colSpan=3>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=grey12 align=middle colSpan=3>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht12 align=middle width=188 height=20></TD><TD class=wht12 align=middle width=224 height=20>（ 2007-05-17 14:14:20 ）</TD><TD class=wht12 align=middle width=188 height=20>

稿件来源：​

COMMUNICATIONS Source : </TD></TR><TR><TD class=grey12 align=middle colSpan=3></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=15 cellPadding=0 width=564 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=black14><!--ADV_CONTENT-->

minister of Agriculture, 16 SUN said that the current threshold of the outbreak of blue ear pig disease high season. prevention and control situation is very grim.
。​

Blue Ear Pig Disease is not an animal and zoonotic disease, but if not control, it will seriously harm the development of the pig farming industry, serious impact on income, affecting pork consumption market stability. :tiphat: http://66.249.91.104/translate_c?hl...uanet.com/mrdx/2007-05/17/content_6113090.htm

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Treyfish]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

<TABLE borderColor=#0066cc height=347 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR align=middle><TD class=biaoti1 vAlign=center colSpan=3 height=40>Linyi pork prices leapt highest </TD></TR><TR class=biaoti1 align=middle><TD vAlign=center colSpan=3 height=20></TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3 height=16>

2007-05-18 08:40:25​

2007-05-18 08:40:25​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3 height=16><HR align=center width="90%" SIZE=1></TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top colSpan=3 height=16>

​

</TD></TR><TR><TD width=37 height=114></TD><TD vAlign=top align=left width=684>

​

<STYLE id=_Custom_Style_>.h1 { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; TEXT-JUSTIFY: inter-ideograph; FONT-SIZE: 22pt; MARGIN: 17pt 0cm 16.5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 240%; TEXT-ALIGN: justify}.h2 { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; TEXT-JUSTIFY: inter-ideograph; FONT-SIZE: 16pt; MARGIN: 13pt 0cm; LINE-HEIGHT: 173%; TEXT-ALIGN: justify}.h3 { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; TEXT-JUSTIFY: inter-ideograph; FONT-SIZE: 16pt; MARGIN: 13pt 0cm; LINE-HEIGHT: 173%; TEXT-ALIGN: justify}.h1 { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; TEXT-JUSTIFY: inter-ideograph; FONT-SIZE: 22pt; MARGIN: 17pt 0cm 16.5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 240%; TEXT-ALIGN: justify}.h2 { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; TEXT-JUSTIFY: inter-ideograph; FONT-SIZE: 16pt; MARGIN: 13pt 0cm; LINE-HEIGHT: 173%; TEXT-ALIGN: justify}.h3 { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; TEXT-JUSTIFY: inter-ideograph; FONT-SIZE: 16pt; MARGIN: 13pt 0cm; LINE-HEIGHT: 173%; TEXT-ALIGN: justify}</STYLE>

。​

Linyi City from the Bureau of Statistics noted that as of May 16, Linyi City pork prices set a record high, meat prices which reached 17.6 yuan / kg, the price of pork reached 15.4 yuan / kg, respectively, over the same month last year 11.1 per / kg, 9 yuan / kg increased by 58% and 71%.

。​

Pig prices for 10.4 yuan / kg, with the same month last year six yuan / kg compared with a 73% rise.

According to​

industry sources, the price of pork is higher-priced market in the supply of live pigs is obviously caused by inadequate. Caused the main reason for this phenomenon : First, the same period last year, pork prices low to pig farming heavy losses, particularly small farming households were forced to shut down or diverted to the closure, which will further lead to pig herds have been rising slowly; Second, the price of grain led to a significant increase in feed prices increases, the cost of raising pigs increased, pork prices in the long-term rates in the doldrums under the influence, raising profits not achieve the desired level of synchronization, again affected the pig farming industry , exacerbated by the current inadequate supply of live pigs situation.

​

Judging from the current market situation, as the high price of pork operation, the sales market has dropped dramatically. Pork prices have been rising in a small space, but because of the growing pig restrictions Pig market supply in the short term can not be improved. According to the above analysis, Linyi pork on the market price is difficult to fall shortly. :tiphat:

​

http://66.249.91.104/translate_c?hl...tp://www.langya.com.cn/lygz/200705/t93827.htm
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[gsgs]

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

The minister did not say how many pigs had died from the disease
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/PEK321363.htm

sounds as if they had asked him and he refused to answer

he should have commented on the 20 million from Guangxi-news.
But it's China ...

Several sources said there were 1 million dead pigs last year,
so there can hardly be 20 million this year in just a few months
without this getting more attention.