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Mutating to a less virulent strain

DB

Valued Member
We hear about the virus could mutate into a less virulent strain to become transmissable.

We have also heard about how many more mutations it will take to make it efficient human to human transmissable.

My question is, how many mutations would it take to make it less virulent?
 
Re: Mutating to a less virulent strain

On major mutation, 2 minor mutations and a touch of Sonic Boom.... all of which can happen today.
 
Re: Mutating to a less virulent strain

Decreasing virulence may be determined by things other than random mutations. It may fall under "Restriction of cytopathogenic effects to allow for an approptiate balance between viral replication and control by the host." (from here) That is - the normal learning curve.

It's my understanding that the "virulence" mutations are immune evasion (pos. 92 in NS1 & being a novel less-human antigen) and increased cleavability (multiple amino acids in H5N1, but it was NA mutation in 1918 H1N1)

It could "fade out" from a stronger influenza....as happened in the past.

I'll never be completely worry-free about influenza again, knowing that there will always be another potentially-pandemic influenza "in the oven."

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Re: Mutating to a less virulent strain

AlaskaDenise said:
I'll never be completely worry-free about influenza again, knowing that there will always be another potentially-pandemic influenza "in the oven."

.

AlaskaDenise, I will always be more informed on emerging viruses in the future also. I am concerned that we may focus on one and miss something that is emerging so quickly that we miss the "silver bullet" coming at us.

I have found (over the last 6 months) that many viruses that are emerging can, and do in some cases produce the "cytokine storm", have chemokine reactions, or can cause severe problems such as encephalitis and meningitis. Some are spreading rapidly and increasing their virulence such as Chik and West Nile.

Over the last week, I have read several papers and visited many websites on emerging viruses. Emerging influenza scares me the most, but vector borne viruses are right behind them. What is really scary is the thought that so many viruses that have been under control for years are re-emerging with such voracity.

With vector borne viruses, the vector list and host species are expanding rapidly. Viruses are mutating so that they can be carried by multiple vectors (ie- mosquitoes, ticks, deer flies, and horse flies). With an increase of vector species, there is also an increase in intermediary and dead end hosts.

I guess the only way to really feel safe (safer) is to keep informed and keep prepared.
 
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Re: Mutating to a less virulent strain

...What is really scary is the thought that so many viruses that have been under control for years are re-emerging with such voracity.

Time for some serious reality checks. The easy-livin' party is about to get a few rules ... if you want to live to party another day.

If we're not willing to make some sacrifices, then... the old adage, "nothing's certain but death and taxes" - the death part may start occuring with a frequency more resembing that of taxes. :(

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Re: Mutating to a less virulent strain

additional virulence factors relative to ease of secondary bacterial lung infections.

After doing some reading about the mechanisms to secondary bacterial infections, I discovered that there is some unusal action attributed to the Neuraminidase, but they specifically mention the a2,6 binding action - see post #4 in thread about cases in east Russia.

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