Most positive patients from posh areas

[Ronan Kelly]

Most positive patients from posh areas
TNN 31 August 2009, 01:43am IST

AHMEDABAD: A strange trend has emerged in the profile of swine flu patients and those that have come in contact with them.


The fact is that most of the H1N1 positive patients belong to posh west and new west zones of the city, while the 400 people who had come in contact with the 70 positive cases belong to densely populated, middle and lower middle class localities of the city - especially in the east and central parts of the city. It is this asymmetry that is a growing concern for the health authorities. Reason being that the H1N1 virus has greater chances of spreading in densely populated areas if not monitored properly.

The fear became more pronounced after a 23-year-old pregnant woman who died of swine flu left a huge trail of more than 30 people, mainly in Naroda, and Saijpur.

In an analysis carried out last week, nearly 17 positive cases belonged to the densely populated east zone while 26 cases belonged to the posh west and new west zone respectively. Though unequal in numbers, those who have come in contact with the positive swine flu cases are more in eastern and central part of the city. Till last week, there were 33 contact cases in Odhav and 14 in Naroda. However, posh areas like Thaltej had 11 contact cases; Bodakdev had 10, while Satellite, Prahladnagar together had 16 contact cases. But there are 26 contact cases in areas like Juhapura and Vejalpur.
"The problem is not the west infecting the east and the central part, but the few cases that have come up in the east zone had left a large trail of contacts. It is a fact that the H1N1 virus has a huge potential of spreading in highly localized densely populated areas. Our health authorities are monitoring the situation every day," said a senior health official.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4952330.cms

 

[colormyquilt]

Re: Most positive patients from posh areas

Most positive patients from posh areas
TNN 31 August 2009, 01:43am IST

AHMEDABAD: A strange trend has emerged in the profile of swine flu patients ...most of the H1N1 positive patients belong to posh west and new west zones of the city...The fear became more pronounced after a 23-year-old pregnant woman who died of swine flu left a huge trail of more than 30 people, mainly in Naroda, and Saijpur.

"The problem is not the west infecting the east and the central part, but the few cases that have come up in the east zone had left a large trail of contacts.

Other variables to be looked at would be: average age of "posh" victim, life style/ cultural differences in social system between wealthy and poor.

 

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Most positive patients from posh areas

Perhaps they are only testing those in the 'posh' area. Poor people who may have the disease are simply dying of unexplained diseases. It takes money, time and someone who knows how to keep the results from falling apart to accurately test for this flu. This isn't a disease of rich or poor it hits everyone equally. The only exceptions are those living in tight quarters with poor access and ignorance of proper hygene. Therefore this view may be a very subjective one or simply the first place the disease struck. Time will equal the severity between the two populations.

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Most positive patients from posh areas

Several of the early fatalities were of individuals who had arrived from abroad.
International travel is more likely in the affluent and serves as a major method of introduction to that portion of the community. India has a multi-tiered health system of public and private hospitals. The guidelines are to send swabs from serious cases for testing, but I'm sure that private hospitals might fudge that for paying customers.
There are a couple of things in this report that are worrisome. It has only been 4 weeks since the first Indian fatality and the current toll is around 110. With the lag of up to six weeks between infection and fatalities, as this spreads to the slum areas, we could see an explosion of fatalities in the next couple of weeks.
The "trail of more than 30 people". While the report doesn't say so if these people are sick, that could indicate a change in the disease's attack rate.
And finally, in many cases, once the contact list individuals have been traced, they are given Tamiflu as a precautionary measure. That will certainly drive disease evolution.
India bears watching.