mortality statistics

gsgs · Jul 6, 2013

Re: mortality statistics

Euro-deaths 1960-2011
16 countries with available monthly data since 1960
(plus 2 small omitted countries)

missing years are estimated from neighbors-data (i.e. France~NL+B+CH)

normed to season 2010-2011 = 1

you can see the larger amount of seasonality in Southern Countries

you can also see how the upward-trend since 1960 was stopped ~1974
in middle-Europe, although it is less pronounced than in USA 1974-1976
(look at the yearly minima in chart #17)

---------------------------------------
mortalitylinks
UNO: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demograph...s/dyb/dyb2.htm
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demograph.../HistTab10.csv
since 1948, all causes , x countries
WHO: http://www.who.int/healthinfo/morttables/en/index.html
http://apps.who.int/healthinfo/stati...ality/whodpms/
(tables by cause,7 agegroups,selected countries, since 1979)
WHO Mortality Database Updated as of March 2012 ----edit-----Updated as of July 2014--------
WHO-Europe causes of death with subnational regions, since 1980 ---updated April 2014 ---:
http://data.euro.who.int/hfamdb/
HMD: http://www.mortality.org/
CDC: http://www.nber.org/data/multicause.html
http://www.uni-ulm.de/mawi/mawi-mort
Japan: http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/chouki/02.htm
eurostat: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/...cd_anr&lang=en
yearly,1994-2010,37 countries,87 causes,3 sexes,22 agegroups = 3611718 numbers
download as zips, only 10 causes at once, else there are problems
18MB zipped in total, takes a while to create the data ~1 hour to download the whole database (1994-2010)
eurostat: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/...mmonth&lang=en
deaths by month
62 countries,1960-2013,14 months=46872 numbers ---udate 2014/02/14---
Canada: http://hdl.handle.net/1974/8177
Massachusetts: https://archive.org/details/annualreportvita1933mass
France:http://www.ined.fr/1999
Belgium:
USA: http://www.nber.org/data/multicause.html

IPUMS: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integra...crodata_Series

freeBMD: http://www.freebmd.org.uk/cgi/EntryCounts.pl
England+Wales, 1838-1966, quarterly, for genealogy,not statistics, restricted search
they have name,age,district - not cause of death , no stat-counts
--------------------------------------------------------------------
France 1906, monthly , >80 regions
http://translate.google.de/translate...76%26bih%3D539
-------------------------------------------------------------------
USA, public health reports weekly since 1896
weekly deaths in ~100 cities worldwide , total+11 infectious diseases (until 1912)
weekly temperature and rainfall in ~100 US-cities
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/?ter...eports%22+1900
starts 1896 all the weeks at pubmed
------------------------------------------------------------------
Donaldson
and Keatinge [77], for example, obtained the daily population in their study
of winter excess mortality in southeast England ?by linear interextrapolation
from the 1981 and 1991 censuses?
----------------------------------
Aus Oberösterreich wurden tägliche Sterbefälle für die Jahre 1990 bis 2004 zur Ver-
fügung gestellt, wobei neben Alter, Geschlecht und Haupttodesursache auch der
Wohnbezirk bekannt ist.
--------------------------------------
Canada 1921-1970: http://qspace.library.queensu.ca/jspui/handle/1974/8177
cansim: since 1991 : http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a33...ables&lang=eng
since 1946 only per quartal and province
---------------------------------------------
wonder: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd-icd10.html
--------------------------------------------------------
Anuario estadístico de México Mexico, statistical yearbook
---------------------------------------------------
PAHO: http://ais.paho.org/dwld/mort/VENEZUELA2004.csv
http://new.paho.org/hq/index.php?opt...56&Itemid=2392
=----------------------------------------------------
Australia , AIHW , ABS , 150 EXCEL , GRIM Books >1906
-----------------------------------------------------------
England 1848-1900
http://www.geog.cam.ac.uk/research/p...undeathcauses/
by cause, sex and age for England & Wales 1848-1900 SN5705
-------------------------------------------------------------
France: 1946- http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home...3_1946_num_1_1
=================================================
http://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/about/factbook-11/chapter4.htm
http://www.bmj.com/content/323/7312/541
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm4843a2.htm
================================================== =============
University of Minnesota links:
https://www.lib.umn.edu/libdata/page...l?page_id=2031
================================================== ========
OECD: http://www.oecd.org/els/health-syste...lance-2013.pdf
http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?Dat...e=HEALTH_STAT#
34 OECD-countries, yearly since 1960, ~50 causes, years of life lost, health-status
================================================== ========
data.worldbank.org/
==================================

gsgs · Jul 6, 2013

Re: mortality statistics

smoking
======

Denmark
----------

Life expectancy and mortality in Denmark compared to Sweden. What is the effect
of smoking and alcohol?]. [Article in Danish]
Juel K.Source Syddansk Universitet, Statens Institut for Folkesundhed.
kj@si-folkesundhed.dk
Abstract
INTRODUCTION:
For many years life expectancy in Denmark has improved less than in other comparable
western countries, e.g. Sweden. An unhealthy life style, in particular the consumption
of alcohol and tobacco, has often been mentioned as a possible explanation.
MATERIALS AND METHODS:
Life expectancy and mortality in Denmark and Sweden has been compared by means
of nationwide cause of death registries. Alcohol- and tobacco-related deaths are defined
from death certificate diagnoses. The comparisons between the two countries are made
by age standardised mortality rates and life expectancies for the period 1997-2001.
RESULTS:
50 years ago Denmark had one of the highest life expectancies in the world, but is now at
the bottom of the list when compared to similar countries. Life expectancy in Sweden is
now almost three years longer than in Denmark. Before the age of 75 there were a total
of 3700 premature deaths among Danish men and 3400 among Danish women. Relative
excess mortality was highest among Danish men aged 35-64 with a relative excess mortality
at 40-50%. Among women excess mortality was 50-60% in the age group 35-74 years.
Overall, alcohol and smoking account for almost the entire difference between Danish and
Swedish men and for 75% of the difference between Danish and Swedish women.
CONCLUSION:
A very substantial part of the Danish excess mortality and low life expectancy compared
to Sweden can be attributed to high mortality related to alcohol and tobacco consumption.
A reduction of this difference in life expectancy does not seem realistic without a reduction
in the consumption of tobacco and alcohol.
PMID: 18761821 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
CONCLUSION: The results indicate a high smoking prevalence to be the main explanation
behind the relatively low life expectancy of Danish women born 1915-45.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
CONCLUSIONS: The currently low life expectancy of Danish women compared with that of
women in Norway and Sweden is partly a transitional phenomenon caused by excessive
death rates for women born between the two World Wars. Data on smoking prevalence
by birth cohort and age indicate that a high percentage of Danish women in these cohorts
were smokers throughout their adult life.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The excess mortality of women in Denmark is linked to lifestyle factors:
tobacco smoking, alcohol and drug consumption
------------------------------------------------------------------------
RESULTS: In the period, 1993-1997, 30% of all deaths in men and 20% in women were
related to tobacco, alcohol, or drugs. The percentages of all deaths for tobacco, alcohol,
and drugs were respectively 22.8%, 6.3%, and 1.2% for men and 16.5%, 2.5%, and 0.7%
for women. Every year 12,000 Danes die 11-13 years prematurely, because of tobacco,
more than 2500 die more than 20 years prematurely, because of alcohol, and about 600
die almost 30 years prematurely, because of drugs. The standardised lifetime risk of death
from one of these three causes was about 30% for men, highest in the middle five-year period.
For women--because of substantially increased mortality attributable to smoking--there
was a large increase from 8% to 20%. In the municipality of Copenhagen, the lifetime risk
for men was about 50%, for women it increased from 15% in the middle of the 1970s to
more than 30% in the middle of the 1990s. For both men and women, mortality in the age
group 35-74 declined sharply, when mortality related to the three causes was excluded.
However, the heavy increase in smoking-related deaths in women means that the total
mortality over the entire period has been almost constant.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=4742&langId=en

Denmark and Germany,

per capita cigarette consumption
1970: 1937 , 2333
1980: 1972 , 2423
1990: 1860 , 2234
2000: 1856 , 1843

annual smoking deaths 35-69 years
1955:1400 , 35900
1965:3200 , 62500
1975:4000 , 56800
1985:5100 , 50100
1995:4900 , 58100

Sale of tobacco in Denmark” from Statistics
Denmark, but these figures did not include the sale of all tobacco, which explains why
those figures were smaller.
The new figures are based on figures from The Danish Tax-authorities on the amount
of paid taxes from the sale of tobacco.
Further information: http://www.statistikbanken.dk and http://www.sst.dk/English.aspx.
--------------------------------------------------------
Source: Federal Statistical Office, Statistics on consumption of tobacco products;
Statistisches Bundesamt, Fachserie 14, Reihe 9.1.1, table 1.3.
Methodology: Consumption of tobacco in grams per capita recalculated on the basis
of 1 gram per cigarette and 2 grams per cigar/cigarillo. Consumption of pipe and fine
cut tobacco is also included.
Break in time series: Until 1990, Federal Republic of Germany; from 1991, Germany
after reunification. Further information: http://www.destatis.de.
------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Department of Agriculture/Economic Research Service. Tobacco Situation
and Outlook Report, various issues. U.S. Department of Agriculture: http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/tobacco/tables.htm.
Coverage: US per capita estimates are based on population 18 years of age and over.

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5644a2.htm#fig
--------------------------------------------------------------

Percentage of 15-year-olds who smoke at least once a week,
1993f,girls 1997f ,girls 2001f ,girls 1993f ,boys 1997f ,boys 2001f,boys
Denmark 24 28 21 14 20 17
Germany 29 33 34 21 28 32

Raucherquote 2009

Griechenland 42%
Bulgarien 39%
Ungarn 38%
Lettland 36%
Spanien 35%
Österreich 34%
Frankreich 33%
Polen 33%
Irland 31%
Belgien 30%
Dänemark 29%
EU27 29%
Großbritannien 28%
Italien 26%
Luxemburg 25%
Deutschland 25%
Niederlande 24%
Portugal 23%
Finnland 21%
Schweden 16%

http://archive.tobacco.org/resources/history/tobacco_historynotes.html
Public Health Cigarette Smoking Act of 1969
signed into law by Richard Nixon on April 1, 1970
Congress enacts the Little Cigar Act of 1973
--------------------------------------------------------------------
(sorry, the attached chart comparing German and Danish life expectancy since 1960
was wrong. Accidentally German females were compared with Danish males.
Deleted now, (2 views))
----------------------------------------------
Belgium
-------
An immediate decrease in AMI mortality rates was observed in January 2006 (smoking ban at work).
The effect was highest for women younger than 60 years of age (-33.8%; 95% CI -49.6 to -13.0),
compared with an effect of -13.1% (95% CI -24.3 to -0.3) for male counterparts. Estimates for the
elderly (≥60 years) were -9.0% (95% CI -14.1 to -3.7) for men and 7.9% (95% CI -13.5 to -2.0) for
women. An additional effect of the smoking ban in restaurants was observed for elderly men, with an
annual slope change of -3.8% (95% CI -6.5 to -1.0) after 1 January 2007.

gsgs · Jul 12, 2013

Re: mortality statistics

see, how ischemic heart disease (the most common cause of death)
became much less seasonal since ~2005 and never was much
seasonal (winter_deaths/summer_deaths) in the 20-50y group !

same also in deaths from
other bacterial
HIV
malnutrition
CNS-inflammation
other heart
cerebrovascular
arteries,arterioles,capillaries
other digestive
inflammatory polyarthropathies
arthrosis
bone structure
other urinary

but the reverse (increase of seasonality) in
intestinal infectious
obesity
organic mental
glomerular disease (most increasing disease since 2006)

--------------------------------------------
hattip mixin:

In 2004 the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) revised its guidelines
to recommend statin drugs as a primary prevention and the US market nearly tripled.
In that same year the cholesterol lowering drug known as Lipitor (manufactured by Pfizer)
became the best selling drug in American history. Pfizer reported 2004 Lipitor sales
of 12.5 billion dollars.

-------------------------------------
2013.07.13 , file diseas7.txt was replaced by file disea78.txt
and will be deleted soon
2013.07.13 , picture icd10-m.gif was added, same as icd10-8.gif
but only for the agegroup of 20-49 year olds

=============================================
we should make lists with flu-scores and winter-scores of the diseases,
showing the doctors how sensitive death from that disease is to winter or H3N2-waves
==============================================

gsgs · Jul 29, 2013

Re: mortality statistics

examining the age-structure of deaths in 1918 ...

here is a paper suggesting Mexico was different
Mortality Patterns Associated with the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Mexico:
Evidence
for a Spring Herald Wave and Lack of Preexisting Immunity in Older
Populations

http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/202/4/567.full

from Indian Censuses I get India populations by 5y-age groups in thousands:

Code:

1901,38004,40726,34447,24960,24592,26008,24921,17117,19070,10412,13041,5074,8070e,2280e,4611e
1911,41311,43245,33863,26181,27342,28219,25998,18431,19767,11241,13676,5322,8761,2475,5005
1921,39656,46747,36742,26145,26066,27600,26138,18969,19582,11644,13741,5574,8863,2519,5343

for an estimated deaths in thousands in 1918 of

12-17:1317
17-22:4334
22-27:3018
27-32:984
32-37:877
37-42:907
42-47:492
47-52:601
52-57:8
57-62:648
62-67:168
>67:90

keywords:
33,863,282
26,181,473
census of India 1901 1911 1921

gsgs · Sep 9, 2013

Re: mortality statistics

deaths in USA from the 2009 pandemic

Code:

ICD10-letter
ratio*1000
deaths Oct+Nov 2009
average deaths Oct+Nov 2006-2010
--------------------------------------------------------------
O 1359     174     128  +  46   maternal
J 1118   40521   36229  +4292   respiratory
F 1074   18196   16935  +1261   mental
A 1064    7920    7441  + 479   infection
        
I  979  128335  130992  -2657   cardiovascular
C 1010   96022   94984  +1038   cancer

V  859    6407    7454  -1047   motor accident
B  956    3362    3516  - 154
P  940    2125    2258  - 133
Q  928    1582    1704  - 122

G 1022   22823   22310  + 513
E 1015   16481   16234  + 247
K 1011   14995   14830  + 165
X 1007   15001   14889  + 112
N 1013   10660   10522  + 138

R 1041    6286    6037  + 249
W 1011    5948    5883  +  65
D 1000    4011    4011  +   0
H  811      14      17  -   3
L 1010     652     645  +   7
M 1012    2260    2233  +  27
Y  976    2045    2093  -  48

----------------------------------

4475 additional deaths in USA in Oct+Nov 2009

Code:

US deaths in Oct+Nov , 2009 compared with other years

ratio 2009/average
sex
age-group
ICD10
deaths in 2009
----------------------------------------
 1462  1  6 J1 418 
 1267  0  6 J1 498 
 1267  0  5 J4 805 
 1233  1  5 J4 756 
 1198  1  8 J9 366 
 1154  1  6 J4 1847 
 1141  0  7 J1 891 
 1134  1  7 J1 728     respiratory
 1124  0  6 J4 1935 
 1121  0  8 J8 572 
 1096  0  9 J4 883 
 1084  0  6 J8 300 
 1059  1  7 J4 3242 
 1058  1  9 J4 1415 
 1053  1  8 J4 4062 
 1048  0  8 J4 3547 

 1203  0  9 F0 1475 
 1111  1  8 F0 5192 
 1081  1  9 F0 4728 
 1082  0  8 F0 2652     dementia
 1068  0  7 F0 892 
 1064  1  7 F0 1107 

 1223  0  5 C4 367 
 1122  1  8 C7 494 
 1116  0  8 C4 528 
 1100  0  6 C7 643 
 1084  0  5 C8 572 
 1082  1  6 C6 285 
 1080  1  6 C1 974 
 1069  0  5 C2 1294     cancer
 1067  0  6 C2 1659 
 1066  1  6 C8 718 
 1065  1  6 C2 1033 
 1061  0  6 C8 961 
 1057  0  5 C9 372 
 1056  1  8 C9 886 
 1050  1  9 C3 493 
 1048  0  6 C9 740 
 1045  1  6 C7 422 
 1044  1  9 C2 407 
 1044  1  3 C5 280 
 1044  0  6 C1 1870 
 1042  0  9 C1 321 
 1039  0  4 C2 332 
 1038  1  5 C2 619 
 1037  1  7 C2 1388 
 1035  0  8 C2 1158 
 1033  1  9 C5 739 

 1162  1  6 I1 561 
 1157  0  6 I1 888    hypertensive
 1102  0  4 I1 414 
 1098  1  5 I1 419 
 1074  1  7 I1 889 
 1052  0  9 I1 512 
 1048  0  5 I1 800 
 1035  0  7 I1 809 
 1142  0  6 I4 974 
 1085  0  5 I4 712 
 1068  1  7 I4 984 
 1045  1  6 I4 508 
 1041  1  9 I4 1382 
 1075  1  7 I3 346 
 1045  0  7 I3 312 
 1073  0  6 I5 575 
 1073  0  5 I5 358 
 1055  0  9 I6 1117 
 1042  0  9 I5 944 
 1041  1  4 I6 310 
 1034  0  6 I6 1267 

 1258  1  8 A0 412   intestine
 1142  1  5 A4 305 
 1117  0  6 A4 521 
 1107  0  5 A4 362   bacterial
 1033  0  7 A4 699
 
 1214  0  4 E1 426 
 1139  1  8 E7 307 
 1101  0  6 E1 1406  diabetes
 1061  0  9 E1 339 
 1032  1  5 E1 577 

 1074  1  6 K7 537 
 1077  1  5 K7 662 
 1144  0  6 K7 1130   liver
 1064  0  5 K7 1575 
 1057  0  4 K7 778 

 1180  0  5 N1 362 
 1104  1  6 N1 497 
 1090  0  6 N1 556   kidney
 1063  0  9 N1 459 
 1057  0  7 N1 935 

 1213  1  5 X4 510 
 1185  0  5 X4 764   poisening
 1070  1  4 X4 599 
 1062  0  3 X4 747 
 1122  0  6 X7 444   suicide
 1073  0  5 X7 738 
 1059  0  7 X7 316 

 1178  1  8 R6 408 
 1100  1  9 R6 419 
 1069  1  9 R5 472 
 1067  1  8 R5 358    general

 1140  1  9 W1 530 
 1060  0  7 W1 401 
 1057  0  8 W1 676    fall
 1087  0  9 G3 1067 
 1060  0  8 G3 2363   Alzheimer
 1050  0  8 D4 388 
 1076  0  0 P2 316 
 1036  0  8 K5 431 
 1030  0  8 G2 1101 


 973  0  8 I2 10551 
 953  1  9 I2 7852 
 949  0  7 I2 7873 
 909  1  8 I2 10922 
 901  1  7 I2 5152    ischemic heart disease
 928  1  9 I6 3124 
 920  1  9 I5 2083 
 889  1  8 I7 839 
 883  1  7 I7 420 
 862  1  9 I7 555     arteries
 882  1  8 K5 736 
 858  0  4 B2 382 
 844  1  0 P0 494 
 840  0  4 I6 298 
 834  0  2 V8 429 
 831  0  2 V4 281 
 822  1  7 N3 211 
 820  1  8 N3 501    urinary
 807  0  8 N3 272 
 680  0  4 F1 187

gsgs · Sep 11, 2013

Re: mortality statistics

m100v.gif : deaths from 4 main causes and P+I-ratio 1910-2010 , monthly , USA

4#amf.gif : respiratory deaths vs. all deaths by 2 sexes and 11 agegroups , monthly 1959-2010 , USA
with circulating viruses per season

gsgs · Sep 17, 2013

Re: mortality statistics

most excess deaths from respiratory causes in USA
in the 2009 pandemic were the group 48-59 year old people

see also http://www.plosone.org/article/comments/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0042328

divide by population size to get the excess death-rates

or just divide the excess deaths per agegroup for the seasons:

with the peak at 26-28 years, that reminds to 1918

gsgs · Oct 27, 2013

Re: mortality statistics

IPUMS
-------------

much census population data is available here:
https://usa.ipums.org/usa/

for USA they have
### ~126(?) "variables" , which are the descriptions,classifications of the people, like age or location
### 26 "samples" , which are the different censuses, given by the 26 years, when they took place:
1850,1860,1870,1880,1900,1910,1920,1930,1940,1950,1960,1970,1980,1990,
2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011

It's a bit difficult to get familiar with this the system the first time.
You can select subsets from the samples and variables and after registering you download
the corresponding data in good, uniform, computer-readable format, gzip compressed,
one line for each census record.
Well, that would be billions of records for the whole database, and there are also privacy
issues, so you only random 1% samples or one record per 100000 people,
but it's still useful for statistics, to create charts about age-distribution or growth and such.
There are an amazing lots of variables, I assume all US-households fill in that
questionaire decannually

The data from 1890 were lost in a fire and 1880 is available completely, not just 1%.
Hawaii data are available for 1900,1910,1920 and since 1960.

It would be useful if they did the same thing for the death certificates from NCHS,
it took me many hours to download and convert their data into a format similar to that !

As usual, I think the best way would be to download the whole database and use your
own tools to filter and analyse it offline, and as usual it seems they don't want that.
I had this experience with genbank,NCHS and other databases already.
I think it's about funding, giving credit, they want to be cited in papers and
officials shall see it and decide, that, yes, it's worth funding.
When people download the whole thing, their online data-filtering service is no
longer needed, they get fewer links and citations, I speculate.
But for the analyst it's clearly (IMO) better that way and hopefully what we
will have in future with such databases.

Anyway, it's a wealth of data in nice format and I'm happy I found it

gsgs · Nov 5, 2013

Re: mortality statistics

when we split by age-groups, we see another mysterious deaths-decline
in USA in 1997-1998 in the 20-39y agegroup:

the solution : it's just because of HIV/AIDS

> Many health experts, in fact, credit the powerful HAART therapy
> with helping the domestic AIDS death rate to drop by 47 percent in 1997

you can also see the 9-11 peak in that agegroup

gsgs · Nov 18, 2013

Re: mortality statistics

thre was one big heat-wave in USA in the last 54 years,
and that lead to excess mortality in Jun,23 - Jul,19 in
North East and middle USA, especially Missouri.
Other smaller summer excess mortality waves were in
...1972,1974,(1977),1980,(1982),(1986),...

Deaths happened mainly in the elderly and most elevated
were deaths from almost the same causes that are elevated
in seasonal waves. I.e. pneumonia.
It seems that heat as well as influenza open the door for deadly
pneumonia in the elderly. But not only pneumonia, also heart infarction,
Alzheimer,Diabetes,Septicemia,Parkinson,senility,renal failure and almost all
respiratory and cardiovascular causes.

(to be continued)

Code:

death-ratios in USA by State in 1966
(days 201-226)/(days 175-200)
MO, 1.450646 
IA, 1.317913 
DE, 1.305195 
IL, 1.25127 
NY, 1.227808 
PA, 1.202536 
KS, 1.202062 
MD, 1.200696 
KY, 1.192724 
IN, 1.191983 
MN, 1.187471 
NJ, 1.184558 
NE, 1.179617 
SC, 1.17177 
MI, 1.145695 
WI, 1.144449 
OH, 1.143865 
MA, 1.126206 
CO, 1.124772 
DC, 1.119835 
AR, 1.117331 
CT, 1.115882 
SD, 1.108051 
TN, 1.107771 
VA, 1.10773 
LA, 1.104138 
NC, 1.103574 
GA, 1.102935 
RI, 1.095868 
AL, 1.091592 
MT, 1.089716 
NH, 1.085366 
NM, 1.083527 
MS, 1.083221 
OK, 1.07731 
UT, 1.073771 
AZ, 1.066826 
OR, 1.0652 
AK, 1.046729 
WV, 1.042683 
WY, 1.025126 
ME, 1.022556 
FL, 1.020113 
ND, 1.002571 
WA, 1.000507 
TX, .9970282 
CA, .9864609 
VT, .9815385 
HI, .9802371 
NV, .9519651 
ID, .9467312

Code:

ratio,deaths heat,deaths post-heat,ICD7-code,name of condition

-------->1000 deaths------
 1779 ,1176,661,491,Bronchopneumonia
 1521 ,2198,1445,422,Other myocardial degeneration
 1478 ,1958,1324,450,General arteriosclerosis
 1428 ,1287,901 ,443,Other and unspecified hypertensive heart disease
 1351 ,2525,1868,332,Cerebral embolism and thrombosis
 1346 ,3943,2928,331,Cerebral haemorrhage
 1345 ,1249,928 ,260,Diabetes mellitus
 1266 ,18426,14554,420,Arteriosclerotic heart disease, including coronary disease

------------100-1000 deaths----------------
16692 ,217 ,13 ,931,Excessive heat and insolation
 2142 ,120 ,56 ,444,Essential benign hypertension
 1839 ,379 ,206,493,Pneumonia, other and unspecified
 1687 ,248 ,147,490,Lobar pneumonia
 1610 ,939 ,583,334,Other and ill-defined vascular lesions affecting central nervous system
 1472 ,106 ,72 ,421,Chronic endocarditis not specified as rheumatic
 1441 ,124 , 86 ,572,Chronic enteritis and ulcerative colitis
 1426 ,532 ,373 ,442,Hypertensive heart disease with arteriolar nephrosclerosis
 1420 ,179 ,126 ,350,Paralysis agitans
 1417 ,190 ,134 ,903,Fall on same level
 1385 ,212 ,153 ,795,Ill-defined and unknown causes of morbidity and mortality
 1378 ,215 ,156 ,465,Pulmonary embolism and infarction
 1372 ,280 ,204 ,600,Infections of kidney
 1356 ,137 ,101 ,002,Pulmonary tuberculosis
 1327 ,588 ,443 ,527,Other diseases of lung and .pleural cavity
 1297 ,632 ,487 ,177,Malignant neoplasm of prostate
 1264 ,110 , 87 ,502,Chronic bronchitis
 1247 ,136 ,109 ,150,Malignant neoplasm of oesophagus
 1203 ,201 ,167 ,570,Intestinal obstruction without mention of hernia
 1195 ,287 ,240 ,433,Functional disease of heart
 1190 ,100 , 84 ,541,Ulcer of duodenum
 1186 ,159 ,134 ,175,Malignant neoplasm of ovary, Fallopian tube and broad ligament
 1170 ,406 ,347 ,434,Other and unspecified diseases of heart
 1146 ,337 ,294 ,154,Malignant neoplasm of rectum
 1126 ,142 ,126 ,540,Ulcer of stomach
 1121 ,138 ,123 ,592,Chronic nephritis
 1114 ,390 ,350 ,162,Malignant neoplasm of bronchus and trachea, and of lung specified as primary
 1104 ,244 ,221 ,446,Hypertension with arteriolar nephrosclerosis

-------------<100 deaths------------------
 1821 , 51 ,28 ,794,Senility without mention of psychosis
 1714 , 48 ,28 ,190,Malignant melanoma of skin
 1640 , 41 ,25 ,141,Malignant neoplasm of tongue
 1629 , 44 ,27 ,463,Phlebitis and thrombophlebitis of lower extremities
 1571 , 33 ,21 ,159,Malignant neoplasm of unspecified digestive organs
 1490 , 76 ,51 ,523,Pneumoconiosis due to silica and silicates (occupational)
 1448 , 42 , 29 ,191,Other malignant neoplasm of skin
 1439 , 59 , 41 ,053,Septicaemia and pyaemia
 1361 , 98 , 72 ,492,Primary atypical pneumonia
 1347 , 31 , 23 ,550,Acute appendicitis
 1333 , 24 , 18 ,287,Obesity, not specified as of endocrine origin
 1277 , 46 , 36 ,587,Diseases of pancreas
 1264 , 43 , 34 ,292,Other anaemias of specified type
 1256 , 49 , 39 ,522,Pulmonary congestion and hypostasis
 1250 , 20 , 16 ,411,Diseases of aortic valve specified as rheumatic
 1250 , 40 , 32 ,286,Other avitaminoses and nutritional deficiency states
 1229 , 75 , 61 ,330,Subarachnoid haemorrhage
 1225 , 98 , 80 ,416,Other heart disease specified as rheumatic
 1220 , 72 , 59 ,525,Other chronic interstitial pneumonia
 1210 , 23 , 19 ,290,Pernicious and other hyperchromic anaemias
 1181 , 39 , 33 ,609,Other diseases of urethra
 1181 , 13 , 11 ,340,Meningitis, except meningococcal and tuberculous
 1176 , 20 , 17 ,715,Chronic ulcer of skin
 1166 , 14 , 12 ,452,Other aneurysm, except of heart and aorta
 1166 , 63 , 54 ,410,Diseases of mitral valve
 1159 , 80 , 69 ,561,Hernia of abdominal cavity with obstruction
 1142 , 16 , 14 ,152,Malignant neoplasm of small intestine, including duodenum
 1133 , 17 , 15 ,197,Malignant neoplasm of connective tissue
 1111 , 10 ,  9 ,591,Nephritis with oedema, including nephrosis
 1104 , 74 , 67 ,593,Nephritis not specified as acute or chronic
 1100 , 33 , 30 ,526,Bronchiectasis
 1100 , 77 , 70 ,241,Asthma
        



all
-----

16692 ,217 ,13 ,931,Excessive heat and insolation
 5000 , 10 , 2 ,480,Influenza with pneumonia
 4333 , 13 , 3 ,481,Influenza with other respiratory manifestations, and influenza unqualified
 4000 , 16 , 4 ,923,Foreign body entering other orifice
 3333 , 10 , 3 ,606,Other diseases of bladder
 2750 , 11 , 4 ,003,Pleural tuberculosis
 2555 , 23 , 9 ,309,Other and unspecified psychoses
 2428 , 17 , 7 ,345,Multiple sclerosis
 2400 , 24 ,10 ,929,Accidental drowning and submersion
 2200 , 11 , 5 ,692,Other cellulitis and abscess without mention of lymphangitis
 2200 , 11 , 5 ,146,Malignant neoplasm of nasopharynx
 2181 , 24 ,11 ,936,Other and unspecified accidents
 2166 , 13 , 6 ,352,Other cerebral paralysis
 2142 ,120 ,56 ,444,Essential benign hypertension
 2142 , 15 , 7 ,455,Gangrene of unspecified cause
 2142 , 15 , 7 ,978,Suicide and self-inflicted injury by jumping from high place
 2055 , 37 ,18 ,722,Rheumatoid arthritis and allied conditions
 2055 , 37 ,18 ,782,Symptoms referable to cardiovascular and lymphatic system
 2000 , 42 ,21 ,454,Arterial embolism and thrombosis
 2000 , 12 , 6 ,223,Benign neoplasm of brain and other parts of nervous system
 2000 , 12 , 6 ,160,Malignant neoplasm of nose, nasal cavities, middle ear and accessory sinuses
 2000 , 10 , 5 ,962,Late effect of other accidental injury
 1839 ,379 ,206,493,Pneumonia, other and unspecified
 1821 , 51 ,28 ,794,Senility without mention of psychosis
 1785 , 50 ,28 ,916,Accident caused by fire and explosion of combustible material
 1779 ,1176,661,491,Bronchopneumonia
 1750 , 21 ,12 ,237,Neoplasm of unspecified nature of brain and other parts of nervous system
 1714 , 48 ,28 ,190,Malignant melanoma of skin
 1687 ,248 ,147,490,Lobar pneumonia
 1666 , 10 , 6 ,723,Osteo-arthritis (arthrosis) and allied conditions
 1666 , 10 , 6 ,981,Assault by firearm and explosive
 1640 , 41 ,25 ,141,Malignant neoplasm of tongue
 1629 , 44 ,27 ,463,Phlebitis and thrombophlebitis of lower extremities
 1610 ,939 ,583,334,Other and ill-defined vascular lesions affecting central nervous system
 1571 , 33 ,21 ,159,Malignant neoplasm of unspecified digestive organs
 1555 , 14 , 9 ,792,Uraemia
 1521 ,2198,1445,422,Other myocardial degeneration
 1500 , 18 ,12 ,467,Other diseases of circulatory system
 1490 , 76 ,51 ,523,Pneumoconiosis due to silica and silicates (occupational)
 1478 ,1958,1324,450,General arteriosclerosis
 1472 ,106 ,72 ,421,Chronic endocarditis not specified as rheumatic
 1448 , 42 , 29 ,191,Other malignant neoplasm of skin
 1441 ,124 , 86 ,572,Chronic enteritis and ulcerative colitis
 1439 , 59 , 41 ,053,Septicaemia and pyaemia
 1428 ,1287,901 ,443,Other and unspecified hypertensive heart disease
 1426 ,532 ,373 ,442,Hypertensive heart disease with arteriolar nephrosclerosis
 1420 ,179 ,126 ,350,Paralysis agitans
 1417 ,190 ,134 ,903,Fall on same level
 1400 , 14 , 10 ,500,Acute bronchitis
 1385 ,212 ,153 ,795,Ill-defined and unknown causes of morbidity and mortality
 1378 ,215 ,156 ,465,Pulmonary embolism and infarction
 1375 , 11 ,  8 ,296,Purpura and other haemorrhagic conditions
 1375 , 11 ,  8 ,545,Other diseases of stomach and duodenum
 1372 ,280 ,204 ,600,Infections of kidney
 1368 , 26 , 19 ,293,Anaemia of unspecified type
 1363 , 15 , 11 ,912,Accident caused by machinery
 1361 , 98 , 72 ,492,Primary atypical pneumonia
 1356 ,137 ,101 ,002,Pulmonary tuberculosis
 1351 ,2525,1868,332,Cerebral embolism and thrombosis
 1347 , 31 , 23 ,550,Acute appendicitis
 1346 ,3943,2928,331,Cerebral haemorrhage
 1345 ,1249,928 ,260,Diabetes mellitus
 1333 , 24 , 18 ,287,Obesity, not specified as of endocrine origin
 1333 , 12 ,  9 ,179,Malignant neoplasm of other and unspecified male genital organs
 1327 ,588 ,443 ,527,Other diseases of lung and pleural cavity
 1297 ,632 ,487 ,177,Malignant neoplasm of prostate
 1277 , 46 , 36 ,587,Diseases of pancreas
 1266 ,18426,14554,420,Arteriosclerotic heart disease, including coronary disease
 1264 , 43 , 34 ,292,Other anaemias of specified type
 1264 ,110 , 87 ,502,Chronic bronchitis
 1256 , 49 , 39 ,522,Pulmonary congestion and hypostasis
 1250 , 20 , 16 ,411,Diseases of aortic valve specified as rheumatic
 1250 , 40 , 32 ,286,Other avitaminoses and nutritional deficiency states
 1250 , 10 ,  8 ,304,Senile psychosis
 1247 ,136 ,109 ,150,Malignant neoplasm of oesophagus
 1230 , 16 , 13 ,322,Alcoholism
 1229 , 75 , 61 ,330,Subarachnoid haemorrhage
 1225 , 98 , 80 ,416,Other heart disease specified as rheumatic
 1220 , 72 , 59 ,525,Other chronic interstitial pneumonia
 1210 , 23 , 19 ,290,Pernicious and other hyperchromic anaemias
 1203 ,201 ,167 ,570,Intestinal obstruction without mention of hernia
 1195 ,287 ,240 ,433,Functional disease of heart
 1190 ,100 , 84 ,541,Ulcer of duodenum
 1186 ,159 ,134 ,175,Malignant neoplasm of ovary, Fallopian tube and broad ligament
 1181 , 39 , 33 ,609,Other diseases of urethra
 1181 , 13 , 11 ,340,Meningitis, except meningococcal and tuberculous
 1176 , 20 , 17 ,715,Chronic ulcer of skin
 1170 ,406 ,347 ,434,Other and unspecified diseases of heart
 1166 , 14 , 12 ,452,Other aneurysm, except of heart and aorta
 1166 , 63 , 54 ,410,Diseases of mitral valve
 1159 , 80 , 69 ,561,Hernia of abdominal cavity with obstruction
 1146 ,337 ,294 ,154,Malignant neoplasm of rectum
 1142 , 16 , 14 ,152,Malignant neoplasm of small intestine, including duodenum
 1133 , 17 , 15 ,197,Malignant neoplasm of connective tissue
 1126 ,142 ,126 ,540,Ulcer of stomach
 1121 ,138 ,123 ,592,Chronic nephritis
 1114 ,390 ,350 ,162,Malignant neoplasm of bronchus and trachea, and of lung specified as primary
 1111 , 10 ,  9 ,591,Nephritis with oedema, including nephrosis
 1104 , 74 , 67 ,593,Nephritis not specified as acute or chronic
 1104 ,244 ,221 ,446,Hypertension with arteriolar nephrosclerosis
 1100 , 33 , 30 ,526,Bronchiectasis
 1100 , 77 , 70 ,241,Asthma

wikipedia:
1966 - not mentioned
1972 - NY, Northeastern 900 deaths ,16 days.
1980 - 10000 deaths central and eastern , MO,TX, $20 billion
1983 - IO,MO,IL,MI,WI,IN,OH,MN,NE,KY
1988 - 5000-10000 (17000 ?) deaths in USA
1995 - Chicago ,Wisconsin.
1999 - MD,DE.NJ,RI,WV 502 deaths
2000 south
2001 NJ
2006 , 220 deaths SD, CA,
2008, east ,CA
2010, east,
2011, Midwestern
2012, Rocky Mountains
2013, Southwestern

gsgs · Nov 29, 2013

Re: mortality statistics

big increase in the elderly ratio in 1997,1998 (why ?)

then we had a steady decline from the top in 1999 until the minimum in 2007
then a slight increase in 2008,2009
then a abrupt increase in 2010 and it stays at that level since then

was it ****** ?

(USA, all causes, preliminary, 122 cities, deaths >64 years divided by all deaths
----------------------
not flu-specific
it is also seen in summer, compare the yearly minima
I thought maybe the Mexican immigrant legalisation act ?
but shouldn't that decrease the elderly ratio

deaths from ****** in the elderly during the months of a flu wave were small

so it would have to be some lasting effect, that also kills in summer

--------------------------------
not so many recently, and only in summer.
We had some heatwaves in the 60s,70s but nowadays people rarely die
from it in USA. And you would clearly see it in the charts
It must be something different (IMO)
I also noticed, that the elderly ratio did not decline in the 1974-1976 US-death-decline
mystery, so that 1975 decline mystery was presumably not specific to the elderly,
at least not the >64-group

=======================================
I found zanran
search engine for data and statistics ? not tested yet
http://www.zanran.com/q/
=======================================

gsgs · Dec 23, 2013

Re: mortality statistics

there are more deaths on Christmas and on New Year's day
than on other days

below a double-pic:
hmm, the youngerly peak at Dec.24 is shifted towards
Dec. 25,26 for the elderly

Jan.1 is the bigger effect, I should check other holidays ...
what were the US-holidays 1972-1988
(NCHS stopped giving the day of death since 1989)

papers at:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20805014
attributed to dead-on-arrival (DOA) and emergency department (ED) settings#

http://circ.ahajournals.org/content/110/25/3781.full.pdf
2004 with charts

I also have a peak for Jul.4 in the 10-39 age group
checking Easter ... smaller peak

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_holidays_in_the_United_States

gsgs · Dec 27, 2013

Re: mortality statistics

1974 death decline mystery, posts #13ff

------------------------
http://web.squ.edu.om/med-Lib/MED_CD/E_CDs/anesthesia/site/content/v03/030105r00.HTM

Deaths related to hypertensive cardiovascular disease and to myocardial infarction have
decreased dramatically since 1974, accounting for most of the decrease in cardiovascular
death in this time period. This decrease (at least in localized communities) correlates with
successful control of hypertension. This strong evidence from Veterans Affairs studies and
the epidemiologic data have led to the belief that all patients with a diastolic blood pressure
above 90 mm Hg should be treated, regardless of age.

Framingham data

study conducted by Prys-Roberts et al 227 in 1971 and by Goldman and Caldera 228 in 1979.
Several other studies (Bedford and Feinstein, 229 Asiddao et al, 230 Stone et al, 165 Flacke
et al, 167 Ghignone et al, 168 Tuman et al, 172 Ellis et al, 231 Charlson et al, 8 Mangano
et al, 166, 232 Stone et al, 233 Wolfsthal, 234 and Pasternack et al 235 ) also have been cited.

--------------------------------------------------------

so maybe the 1974-1976 US-death decline was due to the start of aggessive
treatment of hypertension in USA, while in other countries the timing
of treatment was a bit different

biggest effect was in cerebrovascular disease (stroke)
then ischaemic heart disease (by far the most prominent cause of death)

that treatment could also have had benefits for deaths from some other diseases,
like diabetes or renal failure (Alzheimer ? Parkinson ?)

looking for:
a chart of average hypertension of heart patients in USA over time
a chart of consumption/production of anti-hypertensive drugs over time

and USA compared to other countries wrt. this

-------------------------------------------------------------

vasodilating drugs
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1347177/
Framingham study (Kannel, Wolf,
Verter, and McNamara, 1970)
showed an increased risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease
in initially asymptomatic persons whose initial pressures were 160/90 mm Hg or greater.

Autonomic Ganglion-blocking Drugs
Adrenergic Neurone-blocking Drugs
Adrenergic Receptor-blocking Drugs
Drugs with Direct Action on Vascular Resistance
The thiazide diuretics are widely used alone or in
combination with other drugs in the management
of mild and modest hypertension.

As of 2009, the best available evidence favors the thiazide diuretics as the first-line treatment
of choice for high blood pressure when drugs are necessary

Clonidine has been approved for treatment of hypertension in the United States since 1974
centrally acting α2 adrenergic agonist.

Ibuprofen has been available as a
prescription drug for the treatment of osteoarthritis and rheumatoid
arthritis at a dose of 1,200 to 3,200 milligrams (mg) per (/) day since
1974 in the United States and since 1969 in the United Kingdom.

May is high Blood pressure education Month
and has been so since 1974, when the
National high Blood pressure education program
of the National heart, Lung, and Blood institute
launched this initiative.
http://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/about/nhbpep/nhbp_pd.htm

----------------------------------------------------------

niacin has been known to prevent atherosclerosis and to reduce the risk of
second heart attacks since 1975.
Niacin alone[20] or in combination with other lipid lowering agents such
as statin[21] or ezetimibe[22] significantly reduces risk of cardiovascular
disease and arthrosclerosis progression.[23]

Coronary Drug Project of 1965-1974,4 ...

In fact, the primary study that pointed to the benefits of high HDL was the Coronary Drug Project
of 1965-1974,4 which examined the effects of niacin on cholesterol levels. It probably should be
noted that over a quarter century later, niacin is still the most effective FDA approved means of
raising HDL-cholesterol.

http://www.jonbarron.org/article/niacin-and-cholesterol

In fact, it appears inflammation is the thread that ties everything together. Inflammation
damages the walls of the arteries -- but not the veins -- forcing the body to "repair" the
damage using cholesterol-based, cement-like plaque to patch over the problem areas.
Over time, with continued inflammation and continued repairs, the patches start thickening,
hardening, and narrowing the arteries. Statin drugs work, then, not because they lower
cholesterol, but because they reduce arterial inflammation. As it turns out, statin drugs
suppress T-cell activation and inhibit the release of inflammatory cytokines that are
critical mediators of the inflammation response.10,11,12 Statin drugs also help lower
C-reactive protein levels -- a known inflammation marker and independent risk factor
in the development of ischemic stroke -- again, entirely separate from their effect on
serum cholesterol.13,14,15

The US National Institutes of Health has stopped a clinical trial studying a combination
of niacin (nicotinic acid) and a statin 18 months earlier than planned because of poor results.

did not reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease and stroke.

Since its beginning in 1974, the WIC Program has earned the reputation of being one of the
most successful Federally-funded nutrition programs in the United States

---------------------------------------------------
Atherosclerosis is a chronic inflammatory condition involving immunocompetent
cells of different types present in the lesions
Bacteria and virus have been discussed as potential causes of immune activation,
but it has been difficult to find direct evidence supporting this hypothesis,
and antibiotic trials in humans have been negative or inconclusive

---------------------------------------------------------------------

there was a major decrease in the mother’s milk concentrations in the mid and late 1970s
(PCB in Germany) whereas in the 1980s the concentrations remained on the same level.

http://www.chem.unep.ch/pops/pops_inc/proceedings/bangkok/Image14.gif

The TSCA was passed by the United States Congress and signed into law by President
Gerald Ford on October 11, 1976, after many years of negotiation between different factions
of the government and chemical producers.[6] As one of the most important pieces of legislation
ever passed in the United States, TSCA authorized the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
to regulate new and existing chemicals.[6] TSCA was response to Congress’ growing concerns
about the unreasonable risks that chemicals pose to human health and the environment.[6] TSCA
limits the manufacture, processing, commercial distribution, use, and disposal of chemical
substances including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), asbestos, radon and lead-based paint.[6]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toxic_Substances_Control_Act_of_1976
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/docs/1970/78127_7.html
pubmed hits for "polychlorinated bisphenols"
1968,...,1976:1,1,8,48,125,121,168,178,152

there was a major decrease in the mother’s milk concentrations in the mid and late 1970s
(PCB in Germany) whereas in the 1980s the concentrations remained on the same level.

national conference Chicago 1975
---------------------------------------------
We found no evidence that living closer to PCBs would increase risk of heart disease
or a stroke," state Health Department spokesman Jeffrey Hammond said of the 2011 study,

gsgs · Jan 25, 2014

Re: mortality statistics

"wonder" also made a database from the NCHS death certificates:
http://wonder.cdc.gov/wonder/help/mcd.html

they have 1999-2010 , no place of death 1999-2006

state,county,age1,gender,race,hispanic,urbanization,year,month,weekday,autopsy?,
facility-type of death,ICD10-cause,multiple

75,000 is the maximum of rows allowed

i tried age1,HHS10,gender2,icd113,
This request produces 305,351 rows,

then i tried age1,HHS,gender,icd-chapter
processing request ....5min....

after .-10min the browser closed the page
Die Webseite ist abgelaufen

going back to wonder, I see:

WONDER Message
Access WONDER data by completing and submitting a request page.
To access data for the requested resource please go to:
http://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd-icd10.html.
Or start at http://wonder.cdc.gov and navigate from there

then it asks me again to agree:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Use Restrictions:

The Public Health Service Act (42 U.S.C. 242m(d)) provides that the data collected by the
National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) may be used only for the purpose for which
they were obtained; any effort to determine the identity of any reported cases, or to use
the information for any purpose other than for health statistical reporting and analysis,
is against the law. Therefore users will:

Use these data for health statistical reporting and analysis only.
For sub-national geography, do not present or publish death counts of 9 or fewer or death
rates based on counts of nine or fewer (in figures, graphs, maps, tables, etc.).
Make no attempt to learn the identity of any person or establishment included in these data.
Make no disclosure or other use of the identity of any person or establishment discovered
inadvertently and advise the NCHS Confidentiality Officer of any such discovery.

Eve Powell-Griner, Confidentiality Officer
National Center for Health Statistics
3311 Toledo Road, Rm 7116
Hyattsville, MD 20782
Telephone 301-458-4257 Fax 301-458-4021

Sanctions for Violating Rules:

Researchers who violate the terms of the data use restrictions will lose access to WONDER
and their sponsors and institutions will be notified. Researchers who are suspected of
violating the rules may be prevented from using WONDER until an investigation can be
completed. Deliberately making a false statement in any matter within the jurisdiction
of any department or agency of the Federal government violates 18 USC 1001 and is
punishable by a fine of up to $10,000 or up to 5 years in prison, or both.

By clicking the "I Agree" button I signify that I will abide by the terms of data use stated
above and understand the sanctions and legal penalties for violation of these terms of use.
Click Dataset Documentation for complete information about this dataset.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

but then it just displays a new empty form page

ok, trying the same again ...

select "save to file" at the bottom !
unselect "display"

more later

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

OK, I got data for the 4 census regions, even after 2005 for which NCHS doesn't give any
geographical data. The format is OK, not difficult to convert.
Deaths in the youngerly in 2009 are just too few to draw conclusions about the H1
mortality age-structure for <40

gsgs · Jan 29, 2014

Re: mortality statistics

it seems that the wave of decline in deaths from cardiovascular
(circulatory) causes, that we have seen in USA since 2001
has stopped in 2009. It stayed almost constant from 2008 to 2011.

Could this have been caused by the new H1-virus ?
It doesn't seem so, since the H1-flu wave itself was not associated
with big increase in circulatory mortality.

It's not so easy for me to figure out, whether the new H1 causes
any excess cardiovascular deaths at all, you have to take the
general trend into account.

estimated excess respiratory deaths (25-64,65-84,>84):
Jun.2009:312,?,?
Jul.2009:165,?,?
Aug.2009:276,?,?
Sep.2009:391,21,107
Oct.2009:1250,491,97
Nov.2009:1087,303,-128
Dec.2009:210,-276,-463

negative numbers presumably come from spared deaths from other
flu that usually occur at that time but was suppressed by new H1.

Then in Jan.,Feb.2010 about 10000-20000 deaths were spared
because of that effect. Although these were elderly deaths
as compared to younger deaths from new H1.

excess circulatory deaths in the 25-64
Sep.2009:290
Oct.2009:416
Nov.2009:352
Dec.2009:-196

(comparing 2009 with 2008 and 2010)

Compare with Europe...

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , National Center for Health Statistics.
Multiple Cause of Death"
"1999-2010 on CDC WONDER Online Database, released 2012.
Data are from the Multiple Cause of Death Files, 1999-2010, as compiled"
"from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the
Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. Accessed at"
"http://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd-icd10.html on Jan 29, 2014 12:24:36 AM
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
National Center for Health Statistics. Compressed Mortality File, 1999-2010
(machine readable data file and documentation, CD-ROM Series 20, No. 2P) as
compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital
Statistics Cooperative Program. Hyattsville, Maryland. 2012.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------edit-----------------
as you can see from the attached chart cau_f2c.gif , the decline
in age<60 deaths from circulatory causes continued through
2009,2010 in Europe

--------------------edit---------------------
******-deaths for USA are given as 2.8 per 100K or ~8500 here:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3841239/
for Mexico they get 5.0 respir. and 2.2 cardio
(I couldn't easily find the value for USA)

gsgs · Jan 30, 2014

Re: mortality statistics

Code:

excess Oct+Nov.2009 youngerly(<60) US-deaths

p-value * 1000
ICD10-code
deaths in Oct+Nov 2009
deaths in (Oct+Nov,2008+2010)/2
ICD10-description


000 A41 1108  971         A41 Other septicaemia
000 B34 41  20            B34 Viral infection of unspecified site
000 D72 7  2              D72 Other disorders of white blood cells
000 D83 5  1              D83 Common variable immunodeficiency
000 E11 439  349          E11 Non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus
000 F06 9  2              F06 Other mental disorders due to brain damage and dysfunction and to physical disease
000 F17 35  20            F17 Mental and behavioural disorders due to use of tobacco
000 G83 7  2              G83 Other paralytic syndromes
000 G92 7  2              G92 Toxic encephalopathy
000 I42 1051  942         I42 Cardiomyopathy
000 I50 503  429          I50 Heart failure
000 I62 378  306          I62 Other nontraumatic intracranial haemorrhage
000 J09 794  2            J09 (added) influenza due to specified avian influenza virus
000 J10 111  4            J10 Influenza due to identified influenza virus
000 J11 289  7            J11 Influenza, virus not identified
000 J12 55  7             J12 Viral pneumonia, not elsewhere classified
000 J13 28  15            J13 Pneumonia due to Streptococcus pneumoniae
000 J15 117  63           J15 Bacterial pneumonia, not elsewhere classified
000 J18 1182  679         J18 Pneumonia, organism unspecified
000 J44 1604  1299        J44 Other chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
000 J69 237  192          J69 Pneumonitis due to solids and liquids
000 J80 191  83           J80 Adult respiratory distress syndrome
000 J90 25  7             J90 Pleural effusion, not elsewhere classified
000 K20 7  2              K20 Oesophagitis
000 N73 5  1              N73 Other female pelvic inflammatory diseases
000 O14 5  1              O14 Gestational [pregnancy-induced] hypertension with significant proteinuria
000 O96 57  30            O96 Death from any obstetric cause occurring more than 42 days but less than one year after delivery
000 Q02 16  6             Q02 Microcephaly
000 R94 5  1              R94 Abnormal results of function studies
000 V95 61  40            V95 Accident to powered aircraft causing injury to occupant
000 Y28 5  1              Y28 Contact with sharp object, undetermined intent
001 J43 186  149          J43 Emphysema
001 Q93 20  10            Q93 Monosomies and deletions from the autosomes, not elsewhere classified
001 V54 38  23            V54 Occupant of pick-up truck or van injured in collision with heavy transport vehicle or bus
001 W68 12  5             W68 Drowning and submersion following fall into swimming-pool
001 Y12 221  181          Y12 Poisoning by and exposure to narcotics and psychodysleptics [hallucinogens], not elsewhere classified, undetermined intent
002 K86 55  37            K86 Other diseases of pancreas
003 W65 55  38            W65 Drowning and submersion while in bath-tub
003 X41 274  232          X41 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to antiepileptic, sedative-hypnotic, anti-Parkinsonism and psychotropic drugs, not elsewhere classified
004 C81 99  76            C81 Hodgkin's disease
004 K59 16  8             K59 Other functional intestinal disorders
004 W76 41  27            W76 Other accidental hanging and strangulation
005 C64 508  453          C64 Malignant neoplasm of kidney, except renal pelvis
005 D68 85  64            D68 Other coagulation defects
005 O26 32  20            O26 Maternal care for other conditions predominantly related to pregnancy
006 A86 11  5             A86 Unspecified viral encephalitis
006 B20 521  467          B20 Human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] disease resulting in infectious and parasitic diseases
006 G41 49  34            G41 Status epilepticus
006 I26 427  378          I26 Pulmonary embolism
006 L97 4  1              L97 Ulcer of lower limb, not elsewhere classified
006 M79 4  1              M79 Other soft tissue disorders, not elsewhere classified
006 O10 4  1              O10 Pre-existing hypertension complicating pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium
006 R07 4  1              R07 Pain in throat and chest
006 V85 6  2              V85 Occupant of special construction vehicle injured in transport accident
006 W67 33  21            W67 Drowning and submersion while in swimming-pool
006 X39 6  2              X39 Exposure to other and unspecified forces of nature
006 X88 4  1              X88 Assault by gases and vapours
007 N18 497  445          N18 Chronic renal failure
008 E27 18  10            E27 Other disorders of adrenal gland
008 K74 1079  1003        K74 Fibrosis and cirrhosis of liver
008 M06 35  23            M06 Other rheumatoid arthritis
008 N17 173  144          N17 Acute renal failure
009 C43 483  434          C43 Malignant melanoma of skin
011 C07 23  14            C07 Malignant neoplasm of parotid gland
011 C22 1033  962         C22 Malignant neoplasm of liver and intrahepatic bile ducts
012 B00 9  4              B00 Herpesviral [herpes simplex] infections
012 P60 12  6             P60 Disseminated intravascular coagulation of foetus and newborn
012 Q07 12  6             Q07 Other congenital malformations of nervous system
014 I27 227  196          I27 Other pulmonary heart diseases
015 V03 344  306          V03 Pedestrian injured in collision with car, pick-up truck or van
016 A40 30  20            A40 Streptococcal septicaemia
018 E66 545  498          E66 Obesity
018 I12 217  188          I12 Hypertensive renal disease
018 J20 13  7             J20 Acute bronchitis
018 N20 13  7             N20 Calculus of kidney and ureter
019 E72 17  10            E72 Other disorders of amino-acid metabolism
019 V59 43  31            V59 Occupant of pick-up truck or van injured in other and unspecified transport accidents
021 I25 5075  4936        I25 Chronic ischaemic heart disease
021 K08 7  3              K08 Other disorders of teeth and supporting structures
021 W86 7  3              W86 Exposure to other specified electric current
022 C49 279  247          C49 Malignant neoplasm of other connective and soft tissue
022 P22 105  86           P22 Respiratory distress of newborn
022 Q01 10  5             Q01 Encephalocele
022 W23 22  14            W23 Caught, crushed, jammed or pinched in or between objects
024 D57 97  79            D57 Sickle-cell disorders
024 Q87 53  40            Q87 Other specified congenital malformation syndromes affecting multiple systems
025 J93 18  11            J93 Pneumothorax
025 P39 14  8             P39 Other infections specific to the perinatal period
029 I33 74  59            I33 Acute and subacute endocarditis
030 C69 19  12            C69 Malignant neoplasm of eye and adnexa
030 Y35 66  52            Y35 Legal intervention
031 Q90 118  99           Q90 Down's syndrome
033 L98 11  6             L98 Other disorders of skin and subcutaneous tissue, not elsewhere classified
034 X49 31  22            X49 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to other and unspecified chemicals and noxious substances
038 C33 5  2              C33 Malignant neoplasm of trachea
038 G30 72  58            G30 Alzheimer's disease
038 K85 200  176          K85 Acute pancreatitis
038 N02 5  2              N02 Recurrent and persistent haematuria
038 V58 128  109          V58 Occupant of pick-up truck or van injured in noncollision transport accident
038 X06 5  2              X06 Exposure to ignition or melting of other clothing and apparel
040 C85 426  391          C85 Other and unspecified types of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma
040 I95 8  4              I95 Hypotension
040 P61 8  4              P61 Other perinatal haematological disorders
040 W01 8  4              W01 Fall on same level from slipping, tripping and stumbling
040 X47 84  69            X47 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to other gases and vapours
044 D35 12  7             D35 Benign neoplasm of other and unspecified endocrine glands
044 J47 12  7             J47 Bronchiectasis
044 W22 12  7             W22 Striking against or struck by other objects
047 Y14 240  215          Y14 Poisoning by and exposure to other and unspecified drugs, medicaments and biological substances, undetermined intent
048 C45 51  40            C45 Mesothelioma
048 E16 17  11            E16 Other disorders of pancreatic internal secretion
048 M33 17  11            M33 Dermatopolymyositis
050 C32 162  142          C32 Malignant neoplasm of larynx
050 G93 479  444          G93 Other disorders of brain
050 W75 132  114          W75 Accidental suffocation and strangulation in bed
054 G40 137  119          G40 Epilepsy
054 K81 30  22            K81 Cholecystitis
055 B37 13  8             B37 Candidiasis
055 B59 13  8             B59 Pneumocystosis
058 K83 31  23            K83 Other diseases of biliary tract
060 J45 254  230          J45 Asthma
062 P20 25  18            P20 Intra-uterine hypoxia
062 P25 25  18            P25 Interstitial emphysema and related conditions originating in the perinatal period
063 K26 40  31            K26 Duodenal ulcer
063 X66 19  13            X66 Intentional self-poisoning by and exposure to organic solvents and halogenated hydrocarbons and their vapours
066 A92 3  1              A92 Other mosquito-borne viral fevers
066 H66 3  1              H66 Suppurative and unspecified otitis media
066 I44 3  1              I44 Atrioventricular and left bundle-branch block
066 J02 3  1              J02 Acute pharyngitis
066 M84 3  1              M84 Disorders of continuity of bone
066 N32 3  1              N32 Other disorders of bladder
066 N83 3  1              N83 Noninflammatory disorders of ovary, Fallopian tube and broad ligament
066 O15 3  1              O15 Eclampsia
066 Q68 3  1              Q68 Other congenital musculoskeletal deformities
076 C68 10  6             C68 Malignant neoplasm of other and unspecified urinary organs
076 V14 10  6             V14 Pedal cyclist injured in collision with heavy transport vehicle or bus
077 W85 15  10            W85 Exposure to electric transmission lines
078 C71 865  824          C71 Malignant neoplasm of brain
078 I74 28  21            I74 Arterial embolism and thrombosis
078 P29 171  153          P29 Cardiovascular disorders originating in the perinatal period
080 C15 576  543          C15 Malignant neoplasm of oesophagus
081 G00 37  29            G00 Bacterial meningitis, not elsewhere classified
082 O99 29  22            O99 Other maternal diseases classifiable elsewhere but complicating pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium
087 V68 16  11            V68 Occupant of heavy transport vehicle injured in noncollision transport accident
091 W83 23  17            W83 Other specified threats to breathing
092 C95 135  120          C95 Leukaemia of unspecified cell type
092 F14 50  41            F14 Mental and behavioural disorders due to use of cocaine
092 X92 11  7             X92 Assault by drowning and submersion
096 C82 17  12            C82 Follicular [nodular] non-Hodgkin's lymphoma
096 P05 17  12            P05 Slow foetal growth and foetal malnutrition
097 I70 64  54            I70 Atherosclerosis
103 I11 1433  1386        I11 Hypertensive heart disease
103 I71 286  265          I71 Aortic aneurysm and dissection
105 A81 18  13            A81 Atypical virus infections of central nervous system
105 C66 7  4              C66 Malignant neoplasm of ureter
105 I89 7  4              I89 Other non-infective disorders of lymphatic vessels and lymph nodes
105 J06 7  4              J06 Acute upper respiratory infections of multiple and unspecified sites
105 M48 7  4              M48 Other spondylopathies
105 R04 7  4              R04 Haemorrhage from respiratory passages
105 Y60 7  4              Y60 Unintentional cut, puncture, perforation or haemorrhage during surgical and medical care
106 C41 132  118          C41 Malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage of other and unspecified sites
107 C08 12  8             C08 Malignant neoplasm of other and unspecified major salivary glands
107 Y57 12  8             Y57 Other and unspecified drugs and medicaments
114 I72 27  21            I72 Other aneurysm
117 K57 37  30            K57 Diverticular disease of intestine
119 C53 389  366          C53 Malignant neoplasm of cervix uteri
121 B44 13  9             B44 Aspergillosis
121 K25 38  31            K25 Gastric ulcer
122 P23 20  15            P23 Congenital pneumonia
125 M72 39  32            M72 Fibroblastic disorders
125 X67 153  139          X67 Intentional self-poisoning by and exposure to other gases and vapours
...
996 C06 22  38            C06 Malignant neoplasm of other and unspecified parts of mouth
997 Y04 5  16             Y04 Assault by bodily force
998 C67 177  222          C67 Malignant neoplasm of bladder
998 V05 38  61            V05 Pedestrian injured in collision with railway train or railway vehicle
999 F03 51  81            F03 Unspecified dementia
999 F19 125  181          F19 Mental and behavioural disorders due to multiple drug use and use of other psychoactive substances
999 P77 66  97            P77 Necrotising enterocolitis of foetus and newborn
999 V09 291  373          V09 Pedestrian injured in other and unspecified transport accidents
999 V89 1351  1510        V89 Motor- or nonmotor-vehicle accident, type of vehicle unspecified


000 A09 92  56            A09 Diarrhoea and gastro-enteritis of presumed infectious origin
1000 K52 6  43             K52 Other non-infective gastro-enteritis and colitis

removed is
000 A09 92 56 A09 Diarrhoea and gastro-enteritis of presumed infectious origin
because the increase is due to a change of category
from noninfective (K52) to infective (A09)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
and the same for dec.2003 (Fujian-flu) :

Code:

dec 2003 vs.(dec2002+dec2004)/2  USA deaths , 0-64 years

000 A41 551  480          A41 Other septicaemia
000 B23 282  217          B23 Human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] disease resulting in other conditions
000 B34 27  14            B34 Viral infection of unspecified site
000 B99 9  3              B99 Other and unspecified infectious diseases
000 D65 23  10            D65 Disseminated intravascular coagulation [defibrination syndrome]
000 D76 11  3             D76 Certain diseases involving lymphoreticular tissue and reticulohistiocytic system
000 E27 14  4             E27 Other disorders of adrenal gland
000 E75 25  13            E75 Disorders of sphingolipid metabolism and other lipid storage disorders
000 F15 7  2              F15 Mental and behavioural disorders due to use of other stimulants, including caffeine
000 F19 136  97           F19 Mental and behavioural disorders due to multiple drug use and use of other psychoactive substances
000 G00 48  22            G00 Bacterial meningitis, not elsewhere classified
000 I11 717  593          I11 Hypertensive heart disease
000 I25 3056  2824        I25 Chronic ischaemic heart disease
000 I33 50  32            I33 Acute and subacute endocarditis
000 J10 66  2             J10 Influenza due to identified influenza virus
000 J11 144  6            J11 Influenza, virus not identified
000 J15 100  46           J15 Bacterial pneumonia, not elsewhere classified
000 J18 614  387          J18 Pneumonia, organism unspecified
000 J20 12  3             J20 Acute bronchitis
000 J43 128  95           J43 Emphysema
000 J44 715  565          J44 Other chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
000 J98 99  70            J98 Other respiratory disorders
000 K46 7  2              K46 Unspecified abdominal hernia
000 L08 7  2              L08 Other local infections of skin and subcutaneous tissue
000 M08 5  1              M08 Juvenile arthritis
000 N04 5  1              N04 Nephrotic syndrome
000 O75 7  1              O75 Other complications of labour and delivery, not elsewhere classified
000 O88 5  1              O88 Obstetric embolism
000 O99 13  5             O99 Other maternal diseases classifiable elsewhere but complicating pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium
000 P07 427  360          P07 Disorders related to short gestation and low birth weight, not elsewhere classified
000 P37 9  3              P37 Other congenital infectious and parasitic diseases
000 V23 58  36            V23 Motorcycle rider injured in collision with car, pick-up truck or van
000 V40 8  2              V40 Car occupant injured in collision with pedestrian or animal
000 W08 6  1              W08 Fall involving other furniture
000 X46 7  2              X46 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to organic solvents and halogenated hydrocarbons and their vapours
000 Y06 5  1              Y06 Neglect and abandonment
000 Y14 119  84           Y14 Poisoning by and exposure to other and unspecified drugs, medicaments and biological substances, undetermined intent
001 F10 491  427          F10 Mental and behavioural disorders due to use of alcohol
001 G03 24  13            G03 Meningitis due to other and unspecified causes
002 A39 21  11            A39 Meningococcal infection
002 A49 21  11            A49 Bacterial infection of unspecified site
002 D69 25  14            D69 Purpura and other haemorrhagic conditions
002 E46 25  14            E46 Unspecified protein-energy malnutrition
002 G31 41  26            G31 Other degenerative diseases of nervous system, not elsewhere classified
002 I21 2132  2008        I21 Acute myocardial infarction
002 P52 47  31            P52 Intracranial nontraumatic haemorrhage of foetus and newborn
002 Q79 37  23            Q79 Congenital malformations of musculoskeletal system, not elsewhere classified
003 G35 166  134          G35 Multiple sclerosis
003 J12 19  10            J12 Viral pneumonia, not elsewhere classified
004 F32 8  3              F32 Depressive episode
004 G71 97  74            G71 Primary disorders of muscles
004 I48 27  16            I48 Atrial fibrillation and flutter
004 P04 8  3              P04 Foetus and newborn affected by noxious influences transmitted via placenta or breast milk
004 X84 16  8             X84 Intentional self-harm by unspecified means
005 Q21 59  42            Q21 Congenital malformations of cardiac septa
005 X47 65  47            X47 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to other gases and vapours
006 B46 4  1              B46 Zygomycosis
006 C66 4  1              C66 Malignant neoplasm of ureter
006 I49 205  172          I49 Other cardiac arrhythmias
006 K82 6  2              K82 Other diseases of gallbladder
006 V69 6  2              V69 Occupant of heavy transport vehicle injured in other and unspecified transport accidents
006 X94 75  56            X94 Assault by rifle, shotgun and larger firearm discharge
006 Y03 6  2              Y03 Assault by crashing of motor vehicle
008 V09 163  135          V09 Pedestrian injured in other and unspecified transport accidents
009 C73 31  20            C73 Malignant neoplasm of thyroid gland
010 E87 55  40            E87 Other disorders of fluid, electrolyte and acid-base balance
010 I31 15  8             I31 Other diseases of pericardium
010 K22 15  8             K22 Other diseases of oesophagus
011 K74 546  495          K74 Fibrosis and cirrhosis of liver
012 J40 12  6             J40 Bronchitis, not specified as acute or chronic
012 R99 1005  937         R99 Other ill-defined and unspecified causes of mortality
012 W30 9  4              W30 Contact with agricultural machinery
012 X97 12  6             X97 Assault by smoke, fire and flames
012 Y21 9  4              Y21 Drowning and submersion, undetermined intent
013 B21 80  62            B21 Human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] disease resulting in malignant neoplasms
013 V58 107  86           V58 Occupant of pick-up truck or van injured in noncollision transport accident
015 I61 358  319          I61 Intracerebral haemorrhage
016 C21 25  16            C21 Malignant neoplasm of anus and anal canal
016 C85 284  250          C85 Other and unspecified types of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma
016 K75 41  29            K75 Other inflammatory liver diseases
016 Y83 41  29            Y83 Surgical operation and other surgical procedures as the cause of abnormal reaction of the patient, or of later complication, without mention of misadventure at the time of the procedure
017 Y12 172  146          Y12 Poisoning by and exposure to narcotics and psychodysleptics [hallucinogens], not elsewhere classified, undetermined intent
018 C06 21  13            C06 Malignant neoplasm of other and unspecified parts of mouth
018 I50 261  229          I50 Heart failure
018 M32 89  71            M32 Systemic lupus erythematosus
019 W11 17  10            W11 Fall on and from ladder
020 N18 272  240          N18 Chronic renal failure
021 J32 7  3              J32 Chronic sinusitis
021 K44 7  3              K44 Diaphragmatic hernia
021 O90 7  3              O90 Complications of the puerperium, not elsewhere classified
021 X92 7  3              X92 Assault by drowning and submersion
022 C71 474  432          C71 Malignant neoplasm of brain
023 K70 769  716          K70 Alcoholic liver disease
024 G93 209  182          G93 Other disorders of brain
025 M62 18  11            M62 Other disorders of muscle
025 V68 18  11            V68 Occupant of heavy transport vehicle injured in noncollision transport accident
027 Y86 41  30            Y86 Sequelae of other accidents
030 C79 95  78            C79 Secondary malignant neoplasm of other sites
030 J85 19  12            J85 Abscess of lung and mediastinum
030 X40 19  12            X40 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to nonopioid analgesics, antipyretics and antirheumatics
031 E84 50  38            E84 Cystic fibrosis
031 R09 30  21            R09 Other symptoms and signs involving the circulatory and respiratory systems
033 D70 11  6             D70 Agranulocytosis
033 F14 44  33            F14 Mental and behavioural disorders due to use of cocaine
033 K83 15  9             K83 Other diseases of biliary tract
033 P22 78  63            P22 Respiratory distress of newborn
034 G80 123  104          G80 Infantile cerebral palsy
038 C23 32  23            C23 Malignant neoplasm of gallbladder
038 C40 5  2              C40 Malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage of limbs
038 E34 5  2              E34 Other endocrine disorders
038 I89 5  2              I89 Other non-infective disorders of lymphatic vessels and lymph nodes
038 J04 5  2              J04 Acute laryngitis and tracheitis
038 J06 5  2              J06 Acute upper respiratory infections of multiple and unspecified sites
038 V24 5  2              V24 Motorcycle rider injured in collision with heavy transport vehicle or bus
040 B44 8  4              B44 Aspergillosis
040 C57 8  4              C57 Malignant neoplasm of other and unspecified female genital organs
040 I82 8  4              I82 Other venous embolism and thrombosis
042 P29 86  71            P29 Cardiovascular disorders originating in the perinatal period
042 X95 854  805          X95 Assault by other and unspecified firearm discharge
043 B16 41  31            B16 Acute hepatitis B
044 C84 34  25            C84 Peripheral and cutaneous T-cell lymphomas
044 K52 34  25            K52 Other non-infective gastro-enteritis and colitis
046 W75 50  39            W75 Accidental suffocation and strangulation in bed
049 K86 43  33            K86 Other diseases of pancreas
050 C11 29  21            C11 Malignant neoplasm of nasopharynx
050 W13 29  21            W13 Fall from, out of or through building or structure
052 D57 53  42            D57 Sickle-cell disorders
055 K35 13  8             K35 Acute appendicitis
056 I62 155  136          I62 Other nontraumatic intracranial haemorrhage
058 M33 9  5              M33 Dermatopolymyositis
060 B94 116  100          B94 Sequelae of other and unspecified infectious and parasitic diseases
060 C14 39  30            C14 Malignant neoplasm of other and ill-defined sites in the lip, oral cavity and pharynx
064 V95 49  39            V95 Accident to powered aircraft causing injury to occupant
066 F54 3  1              F54 Psychological and behavioural factors associated with disorders or diseases classified elsewhere
066 G98 3  1              G98 Other disorders of nervous system, not elsewhere classified
066 K37 3  1              K37 Unspecified appendicitis
066 M00 3  1              M00 Pyogenic arthritis
066 M54 3  1              M54 Dorsalgia
066 M89 3  1              M89 Other disorders of bone
066 W01 3  1              W01 Fall on same level from slipping, tripping and stumbling
066 W06 3  1              W06 Fall involving bed
066 X08 3  1              X08 Exposure to other specified smoke, fire and flames
066 X43 3  1              X43 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to other drugs acting on the autonomic nervous system
068 C43 252  229          C43 Malignant melanoma of skin
068 J80 51  41            J80 Adult respiratory distress syndrome
072 N17 63  52            N17 Acute renal failure
074 B19 6  3              B19 Unspecified viral hepatitis
074 B45 6  3              B45 Cryptococcosis
074 C05 6  3              C05 Malignant neoplasm of palate
074 L02 6  3              L02 Cutaneous abscess, furuncle and carbuncle
074 X85 6  3              X85 Assault by drugs, medicaments and biological substances
076 G06 10  6             G06 Intracranial and intraspinal abscess and granuloma
076 Q90 65  54            Q90 Down's syndrome
076 X41 103  89           X41 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to antiepileptic, sedative-hypnotic, anti-Parkinsonism and psychotropic drugs, not elsewhere classified
077 I26 208  188          I26 Pulmonary embolism
077 I42 595  561          I42 Cardiomyopathy
080 E66 282  259          E66 Obesity
087 I71 185  167          I71 Aortic aneurysm and dissection
087 L93 16  11            L93 Lupus erythematosus
087 R56 98  85            R56 Convulsions, not elsewhere classified
089 C55 72  61            C55 Malignant neoplasm of uterus, part unspecified
092 G47 31  24            G47 Sleep disorders
092 Y26 11  7             Y26 Exposure to smoke, fire and flames, undetermined intent
094 W80 51  42            W80 Inhalation and ingestion of other objects causing obstruction of respiratory tract
097 I40 24  18            I40 Acute myocarditis
100 B17 280  259          B17 Other acute viral hepatitis
105 A48 7  4              A48 Other bacterial diseases, not elsewhere classified
105 E03 7  4              E03 Other hypothyroidism
105 P24 7  4              P24 Neonatal aspiration syndromes
105 Q92 7  4              Q92 Other trisomies and partial trisomies of the autosomes, not elsewhere classified
105 V90 7  4              V90 Accident to watercraft causing drowning and submersion
107 X82 12  8             X82 Intentional self-harm by crashing of motor vehicle
108 C20 134  120          C20 Malignant neoplasm of rectum
109 C80 461  435          C80 Malignant neoplasm without specification of site
109 E78 100  88           E78 Disorders of lipoprotein metabolism and other lipidaemias
114 I80 87  76            I80 Phlebitis and thrombophlebitis
120 D84 28  22            D84 Other immunodeficiencies
122 D64 20  15            D64 Other anaemias
122 V13 20  15            V13 Pedal cyclist injured in collision with car, pick-up truck or van
126 K92 79  69            K92 Other diseases of digestive system
128 C83 40  33            C83 Diffuse non-Hodgkin's lymphoma
...
992 W40 1  7              W40 Explosion of other materials
992 X73 145  177          X73 Intentional self-harm by rifle, shotgun and larger firearm discharge
993 C88 0  5              C88 Malignant immunoproliferative diseases
997 V57 55  80            V57 Occupant of pick-up truck or van injured in collision with fixed or stationary object
998 C92 175  218          C92 Myeloid leukaemia
999 O96 5  18             O96 Death from any obstetric cause occurring more than 42 days but less than one year after delivery
999 P10 1  12             P10 Intracranial laceration and haemorrhage due to birth injury
999 Q25 6  23             Q25 Congenital malformations of great arteries
999 V48 170  217          V48 Car occupant injured in noncollision transport accident

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
and those conditions that appear in both lists:

Code:

US deaths <60years compared to the average of the previous and following year

p-value
ICD10-code
deaths per period
deaths per compared period


Oct+Nov 2009        Dec.2003
-------------------------------------------------------------
000 A41 1108  971   000 A41 551  480     A41 Other septicaemia
000 B34 41  20      000 B34 27  14       B34 Viral infection of unspecified site
000 J10 111  4      000 J10 66  2        J10 Influenza due to identified influenza virus
000 J11 289  7      000 J11 144  6       J11 Influenza, virus not identified
000 J15 117  63     000 J15 100  46      J15 Bacterial pneumonia, not elsewhere classified
000 J18 1182  679   000 J18 614  387     J18 Pneumonia, organism unspecified
000 J44 1604  1299  000 J44 715  565     J44 Other chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
000 J12 55  7       003 J12 19  10       J12 Viral pneumonia, not elsewhere classified
001 J43 186  149    000 J43 128  95      J43 Emphysema
008 E27 18  10      000 E27 14  4        E27 Other disorders of adrenal gland
000 I50 503  429    018 I50 261  229     I50 Heart failure
001 Y12 221  181    017 Y12 172  146     Y12 Poisoning by and exposure to narcotics and psychodysleptics [hallucinogens], not elsewhere classified, undetermined intent
018 J20 13  7       000 J20 12  3        J20 Acute bronchitis
021 I25 5075  4936  000 I25 3056  2824   I25 Chronic ischaemic heart disease
029 I33 74  59      000 I33 50  32       I33 Acute and subacute endocarditis

047 Y14 240  215    000 Y14 119  84      Y14 Poisoning by and exposure to other and unspecified drugs, medicaments and biological substances, undetermined intent
000 I62 378  306    056 I62 155  136     I62 Other nontraumatic intracranial haemorrhage
000 V95 61  40      064 V95 49  39       V95 Accident to powered aircraft causing injury to occupant
000 J80 191  83     068 J80 51  41       J80 Adult respiratory distress syndrome
000 I42 1051  942   077 I42 595  561     I42 Cardiomyopathy
002 K86 55  37      049 K86 43  33       K86 Other diseases of pancreas
081 G00 37  29      000 G00 48  22       G00 Bacterial meningitis, not elsewhere classified
082 O99 29  22      000 O99 13  5        O99 Other maternal diseases classifiable elsewhere but complicating pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium
103 I11 1433  1386  000 I11 717  593     I11 Hypertensive heart disease
003 X41 274  232    076 X41 103  89      X41 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to antiepileptic, sedative-hypnotic, anti-Parkinsonism and psychotropic drugs, not elsewhere classified
006 I26 427  378    077 I26 208  188     I26 Pulmonary embolism
007 N18 497  445    020 N18 272  240     N18 Chronic renal failure
008 K74 1079  1003  011 K74 546  495     K74 Fibrosis and cirrhosis of liver
008 N17 173  144    072 N17 63  52       N17 Acute renal failure
009 C43 483  434    068 C43 252  229     C43 Malignant melanoma of skin
018 E66 545  498    080 E66 282  259     E66 Obesity
022 P22 105  86     033 P22 78  63       P22 Respiratory distress of newborn
024 D57 97  79      052 D57 53  42       D57 Sickle-cell disorders
031 Q90 118  99     076 Q90 65  54       Q90 Down's syndrome
038 V58 128  109    013 V58 107  86      V58 Occupant of pick-up truck or van injured in noncollision transport accident
040 C85 426  391    016 C85 284  250     C85 Other and unspecified types of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma
040 W01 8  4        066 W01 3  1         W01 Fall on same level from slipping, tripping and stumbling
040 X47 84  69      005 X47 65  47       X47 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to other gases and vapours
048 M33 17  11      058 M33 9  5         M33 Dermatopolymyositis
050 G93 479  444    024 G93 209  182     G93 Other disorders of brain
050 W75 132  114    046 W75 50  39       W75 Accidental suffocation and strangulation in bed
058 K83 31  23      033 K83 15  9        K83 Other diseases of biliary tract
078 C71 865  824    022 C71 474  432     C71 Malignant neoplasm of brain
078 P29 171  153    042 P29 86  71       P29 Cardiovascular disorders originating in the perinatal period
087 V68 16  11      025 V68 18  11       V68 Occupant of heavy transport vehicle injured in noncollision transport accident
092 F14 50  41      033 F14 44  33       F14 Mental and behavioural disorders due to use of cocaine
092 X92 11  7       021 X92 7  3         X92 Assault by drowning and submersion
103 I71 286  265    087 I71 185  167     I71 Aortic aneurysm and dissection
105 C66 7  4        006 C66 4  1         C66 Malignant neoplasm of ureter
105 I89 7  4        038 I89 5  2         I89 Other non-infective disorders of lymphatic vessels and lymph nodes
105 J06 7  4        038 J06 5  2         J06 Acute upper respiratory infections of multiple and unspecified sites
121 B44 13  9       040 B44 8  4         B44 Aspergillosis




000 O96 57  30      999 O96 5  18        O96 Death from any obstetric cause occurring more than 42 days but less than one year after delivery

996 C06 22  38      018 C06 21  13       C06 Malignant neoplasm of other and unspecified parts of mouth
999 F19 125  181    000 F19 136  97      F19 Mental and behavioural disorders due to multiple drug use and use of other psychoactive substances
999 V09 291  373    008 V09 163  135     V09 Pedestrian injured in other and unspecified transport accidents

gsgs · Feb 27, 2014

Re: mortality statistics

remarkable is the period of high winter mortality in England from 1900-1970,
which was not seen in USA and presumably not in continental Europe - I can't
find the data.
That was a surprise, I didn't know that. What caused it and what caused
the decline in the 60s ? Clean air act ? And is it all triggered by flu ?

Countries, WHO,UNO spent much effort to collect death data - but usually only
yearly and the years wrap in the mid of winter.
So seasonality of deaths is little understood, little examined, mysterious...

Another open question is, whether there was flu in England 1860-1988 .
It was not reported, but it is supposed that it induced protection for 1918.

we had a decline in English winter-excess-deaths in the 1960s and another decline since 2000

----------------------------------------------------------------

English data:

http://histpop.org/ohpr/servlet/Browse?path=Browse/
Registrar General (by date)&active=yes&treestate=contract&titlepos=0

[evil google link removed]

https://ia700505.us.archive.org/14/items/annualreportofre131850grea/annualreportofre131850grea.pdf
Annual report of the Registrar-General of births, deaths and marriages in England (1837)

https://ia700507.us.archive.org/5/items/annualreportofre351872grea/annualreportofre351872grea.pdf

http://histpop.org/ohpr/servlet/Pag.../archive.org/details/annualreportvita1918mass

gsgs · Mar 7, 2014

Re: mortality statistics

http://www.demogr.mpg.de/de/projekt...man_mortality_a_demographic_approach_2493.htm
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/

Seasonality in human mortality: a demographic approach
Rau, R.
Monographie , Dissertation , 2007

my summary of their summary:

[North-South increase of seasonality of deaths ==> ]
Thus, social and cultural influences play an integral part in mediating seasonal fluctuations
in mortality

[I don't see this conclusion, it could be biological, viruses, humidity, immunity, nutrition,...]

cold-related mortality increases with age

Seasonal mortality over time increased slightly since the 1970. This reflects probably
the widespread introduction of air conditioning which makes summer mortality decrease
at a faster pace than mortality is decreasing during any other season of the year.

[no evidence for that, IMO. variations in US-summer mortality are too low to have a measurable effect]

It should have been assumed from comparative European studies that warmer
regions in the US show larger fluctuations in seasonality than colder regions.
We found, however, no differences.

[I think, I did found that. i.e. Florida. North-South increase was big in the 60s but declined over time ,
see above in this thread
and now is almost gone , USA as well Europe , i.e. Greece , Florida]

We did not find support that marital status has an important influence on seasonal mortality.

The less years spent in formal education, the higher are the annual fluctuations in mortality.

Denmark = ?El Dorado? wrt. quality and wealth of data

women?s excess mortality surpasses the one of men in Denmark.

Despite our findings for the United States, we could not detect any effect of
socio-economic status on seasonal mortality in Denmark

If people are living alone they have higher relative mortality risks in winter

We calculated that at age 50 about 0.8 years of life years could be won for women and about
1 year of life for men. [if we could eliminate winter excess mortality]

[see also the liverpool thread, the 1885 Farr-article, the connection cold periods-->deaths
in England, at least until 1920 (data 1870-1879 easily available)]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
[112] Lone Frank. When an entire country is a cohort. Science, 287:2398?
2399, 2000.
[7] Otto Andersen. Register data for research. Presentation given at the
course ?The data of Denmark?, Odense, DK, 30 April 2001, 2001.
[96] Eurostat. Statistics on Persons in Denmark. a register-based statistical
system. Technical report, Office for Official Publications of the European
Communities, Luxembourg, LUX, 2001.
[349] Axel Skytthe. The Fundament for Danish Register Research. Civil Reg-
istration System. Presentation given at the course ?The data of Den-
mark?, Odense, DK, 30 April 2001, 2000.
[287] J?rn Korsbo Petersen. The Danish Demographic Database - longitu-
dinal data for advanced demographic methods. Research Report 15,
Danish Center for Demographic Research. SDU - Odense University,
Odense, DK, 2000.

NSI = national statistics institute ?
they may access the data, I couldn't figure out yet whether a gsgs may access the data

Denmark has in the past only allowed access to micro data on-site at Statistics
Denmark.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24116214
excess winter mortality in subtropical Guangzhou
was due to (52%) cardiovascular diseases and (24%) respiratory diseases.
-1C ==> +1.38% +0.88% in deaths the same+next month.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

gsgs · Mar 21, 2014

Re: mortality statistics

more papers on seasonality of deaths:
+links etc.

Precipitation during spring and autumn increased mortality spring RR 0.982, 1.018 per cm.
Higher springtime temperature decreased annual mortality, while higher summer
temperature increased the death toll; however, both were only borderline significant (p=0.07).
The significant effect of springtime precipitation for mortality was present only in the first two
periods (1749-1785 and 1786-1824). On the contrary, the overall effect of autumn precipitation
was mainly due to its relevance during the last period, 1825-1859 (RR 1.024, CI 0.997-1.052).
At that time, higher winter precipitation was found to decrease mortality.
CONCLUSIONS:

In urban Uppsala, during the 18th and 19th century, precipitation appeared to be a stronger
predictor for mortality than temperature. Higher spring precipitation decreased and higher
autumn precipitation increased the number of deaths.
However, this association differed before and during the early stages of industrialisation.
Further research shall take age-specific differences into account, as well as changes in
socio-economic conditions during that time.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Patients admitted in the winter in Dublin,2002-2011 had an 17% increased risk of an
in-hospital death by 30 days; this is related to cold along with increased illness severity
and co-morbidity burden.
The disease profile is different with winter admissions.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cantabria (northern Spain) in the years 2004-2005; n=3948 deaths
people aged 75 years or more were especially susceptible to cold temperatures
(OR = 17.9; 95% CI: 2.38-134.8). Cardiovascular (OR = 2.63; 95% CI: 1.88-3.67)
and respiratory mortality (OR = 2.72; 95% CI: 1.46-5.08) showed a weaker effect.------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The data available suggest that exposure to cold, either through exposure to low environmental
temperatures or during induced hypothermia, increases the risk of developing upper and lower
respiratory tract infections and dying from them; in addition, the longer the duration of exposure
the higher the risk of infection. Although not all studies agree, most of the available evidence
from laboratory and clinical studies suggests that inhaled cold air, cooling of the body surface
and cold stress induced by lowering the core body temperature cause pathophysiological
responses such as vasoconstriction in the respiratory tract mucosa and suppression of
immune responses, which are responsible for increased susceptibility to infections
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Eurowinter"
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Italian cities,2001,pop=7M
for ozone, positive associations were commonly found for death and hospital admissions
for both cardiovascular and respiratory diseases
4.9% and -0.4% for SO2, 1.7% and 0.6% for NO2; 2.3% and 0.2% for CO. Corresponding
figures for PM10 at lag 0-1 were 1.1% and 0.2%. larger effects in cities located in Central
and Southern Italy (
------------------------------------------------------------------------
high indices of cold-related mortality were associated with high mean winter temperatures,
low living-room temperatures, limited bedroom heating, low proportions of people wearing hats,
gloves, and anoraks, and inactivity and shivering when outdoors at 7 degrees C (p < 0.01 for
all-cause mortality and respiratory mortality; p > 0.05 for mortality from ischaemic heart
disease and cerebrovascular disease).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

The daily death statistics were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics
data collection from the NSW Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages

Daily Death Statistics, Massachusetts:
2004.

A 10 mg/m3increase in PM10was associated with a 0.36% increase in daily death

Numbers of daily deaths were obtained from the Central. Bureau of Statistics for
1986–94. Netherlands.

In a time-series study in the Netherlands, we found a strong
association between the day-to-day variation in pollen
concentrations and that of deaths due to cardiovascular disease,
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and pneumonia.

http://pubmedcentralcanada.ca/pmcc/articles/PMC478992/pdf/brjprevsmed00025-0058.pdf

Beijing Statistical yearbook (2011).
Availble:http://www.bjstats.gov.cn/nj/main/2011-tjnj/index.htm[accessed 14 June 2013].

---------------------------------------------------------

new PLOS policy to ask/require authors to publish their data
http://www.plosone.org/static/policies#sharing

gsgs · May 8, 2014

Re: mortality statistics

UNO

http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=POP&f=tableCode:65#POP

95 countries, monthly deaths, 1980-2013 (with gaps)
(eurostat is better here, monthly deaths since 1960 for some country,
but Europe lacks the tropical countries)
and, of course, USA is best with the NCHS death-certificates, once you
downloaded and converted all the data ... USA is almost as big as Europe
but still no tropical weather for the better study of seasonality of deaths

I added all the years to show the seasonality

25 months years Jan-Jan to show the seasonality

[looking for latitudes of the capitals data, where to find it ?]

and the same for deaths from influenza only
and the same for respiratory deaths only
and the same for circulatory deaths only

then ignore periods with flu-deaths to get the effect of temperature
on pneumonia and circulatory deaths

I think it's not the absolute temperature that matters (the killing effect of the decrease therof)
but changes in temperature
(after we humans somehow "adapted" to the current temperature)

or/and some viruses,bacteria who prefer the colder weather ?

mortality statistics

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