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More global destabilization in pandemic times? Japan's recent former Prime Minister Abe assassinated - July 8, 2022

US, France and Japan have gone negative in GDP

https://data.oecd.org/chart/6Lsf

Inflation rises.
https://data.oecd.org/

An article from 10/2021 talks about income disparities:

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2...ing-inequality-after-eight-years-of-abenomics
...
Japan’s poverty rate is the second highest among G7 nations and the ninth highest among OECD countries, according to the organisation’s survey, based on data available up to 2020.

Nominal wages rose just 1.2 percent from 2012 through 2020, government data showed. Japanese households’ average wealth fell by 3.5 percent from 2014 to 2019 – although the top 10 percent of the wealthiest saw an increase, according to another government survey.

To be sure, inequality is far more pronounced in countries such as the United States and Britain. Japan stood around the middle of 39 countries surveyed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 2020 based on the Gini coefficient, which gauges inequality....
 
https://vinayprasadmdmph.substack.com/p/how-many-of-our-current-problems
How many of our current problems are due to COVID-19 policy vs. the virus itself vs. unrelated


Vinay Prasad
Jul 10

In his March 17, 2020 stat op-ed John Ioannidis warned that:
“… we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric….”

Sadly, we have seen several of these materialize: war, civil unrest, inflation and supply chain disruptions. Of course, some of this was due to the virus, but much of it was due to our particular policy response. And perhaps some was unrelated entirely. How can we separate these possibilities?...
 
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/06/25/free-money-revolution-finally-eating-children/
The free money revolution is finally eating its children
Western governments are paying the price for unleashing an inflationary monster
Matthew Lynn 25 June 2022 • 6:00am
...

Add it all up, and one point is clear. Inflation is completely lethal for any party that happens to be in power. Here is a simple prediction. It doesn’t matter whether they are from the left or the right. Over the next three years, not a single ruling party anywhere in the developed world will be re-elected.

One by one, presidents, prime ministers and chancellors will be thrown out of office. Inflation will redraw the landscape in many different ways. But a series of changes of government will be one of them - and the next three years will be very politically unstable.
 
Sounds like the US should consider dropping their campaign against the small-time shadow economy. (The $600+ reporting requirement to catch Ebay garage salers, etc.) And they should not go further into the huge illegal shadow economy of drugs, sex trafficking, organized theft by eliminating paper currency. Better to put a national sales tax on luxury items at this time, considering the way some citizens protest.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecpo.12199
Ishak, P. W., & Farzanegan, M. R. (2021). Oil price shocks, protest, and the shadow economy: Is there a mitigation effect? Economics & Politics,34, 298–321.

Abstract
In this study, we look at how oil price shocks affect the incidence of protests in a country and how the size of a country's shadow economy influences this relationship. Using panel data from 144 countries, from the period of 1991– 2015, we find evidence that negative oil price shocks significantly in-crease protests in countries with small shadow economies. The effect dissipates as the size of the shadow economy in-creases and eventually vanishes in countries with a shadow economy representing more than 35% of gross domestic product. Our analysis departs from existing literature by em-phasizing the moderating role of a shadow economy on the effects of negative oil shocks on the incidence of protests in oil- dependent economies. The results are robust to various specifications and their broader implications are discussed.
.....

Our results indicate that negative oil price shocks significantly increase protests in small shadow economy countries, but the effect dissipates as the initial size of the shadow economy increases, eventually vanishing at the highest levels. A larger shadow economy can thus contribute to political stability by providing a complementary source of income for countries that depend on oil revenues and experience negative price shocks. Our results are also in line with findings of Choi and Thum (2005) who show that the presence of a shadow economy mitigates government- induced distortions that may arise after negative price shocks, and as a result, leads to more economic activities in the formal sector. Our results on the constructive role of the shadow economy in mitigating the effects of declining oil rents on conflicts may be seen in contrast with the studies of Loayza (1996) and Johnson et al., (1997). These studies argue that the formal and informal sectors compete for resources and the existence of the shadow economy is viewed as destructive for economic growth.This finding has several implications. First, such a mitigating role should allow for reconsider-ations of permanent calls to eliminate the unofficial economy, by depicting it as a source of evil, a stance that simply conflates causes with symptoms. Governments must recognize that the existence of a shadow economy serves as an implicitly or explicitly integral part of social risk management strat-egies. Second, even with the justified objective of eliminating inefficiencies in allocating goods and factors in the economy, deregulation and structural adjustment strategies must be designed carefully. Specifically, strategies must be implemented in such a way that a reduction or abolishment of the shadow economy will be complemented by an increase in or establishment of other risk management pillars (social security payments, unemployment insurance, etc.)...
 
The US needs to quit agitating trouble abroad, and focus on the crisis at home - constructively.

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2022/07/poll-28-of-us-voters-open-to-armed-revolt-against-govt/
Poll: 28% of US voters open to armed revolt against gov’t

July 01, 2022 Liz George
One in four Americans believe it may “soon be necessary to take up arms” against the government, a new poll released Thursday by the University of Chicago’s Institute of Politics (IOP) showed.

According to the survey of 1,000 registered voters in the United States, 28 percent agree “it may be necessary at some point soon for citizens to take up arms against the government.” Thirty-seven percent of voters who hold that belief have guns in the home, the poll found.

The perspective is held by those found on both ends of the political spectrum, including one in three Republicans, one in three Independents and one in five Democrats.

“That startling finding, which comes in the midst of congressional hearings into the January 6th insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, was just one of several reflections of the dangerous level of estrangement many Americans feel from each other and our democratic institutions,” the IOP stated.

The survey also revealed that most Americans believe the government is “corrupt and rigged against everyday people like me,” including nearly 75 percent of voters who self-identified as a “strong Republican,” 71 percent who described themselves as “very conservative,” and 68 percent of rural voters.

Fifty-one percent of voters who identified as “very liberal” also agreed that the government is “corrupt and rigged” against them.

Almost half of American voters said they “more and more feel like a stranger in [their] own country,” including 69 percent of strong Republicans and 65 percent of “very conservative” participants. Just 38 percent of strong Democrats agreed.
...

The survey also determined that nearly half of American voters avoid discussing politics “because I don’t know where they stand,” and one-quarter said they lost friends due to political differences....
 
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