tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
PLoS One. 2014 Jun 2;9(6):e98471. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0098471. eCollection 2014.
Modeling and Roles of Meteorological Factors in Outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1.
Biswas PK1, Islam MZ1, Debnath NC2, Yamage M3.
Author information
Abstract
The highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) is a deadly zoonotic pathogen. Its persistence in poultry in several countries is a potential threat: a mutant or genetically reassorted progenitor might cause a human pandemic. Its world-wide eradication from poultry is important to protect public health. The global trend of outbreaks of influenza attributable to HPAI H5N1 shows a clear seasonality. Meteorological factors might be associated with such trend but have not been studied. For the first time, we analyze the role of meteorological factors in the occurrences of HPAI outbreaks in Bangladesh. We employed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) to assess the roles of different meteorological factors in outbreaks of HPAI. Outbreaks were modeled best when multiplicative seasonality was incorporated. Incorporation of any meteorological variable(s) as inputs did not improve the performance of any multivariable models, but relative humidity (RH) was a significant covariate in several ARIMA and SARIMA models with different autoregressive and moving average orders. The variable cloud cover was also a significant covariate in two SARIMA models, but air temperature along with RH might be a predictor when moving average (MA) order at lag 1 month is considered.
PMID:
24886857
[PubMed - in process]
Free full text
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24886857
Modeling and Roles of Meteorological Factors in Outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1.
Biswas PK1, Islam MZ1, Debnath NC2, Yamage M3.
Author information
Abstract
The highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) is a deadly zoonotic pathogen. Its persistence in poultry in several countries is a potential threat: a mutant or genetically reassorted progenitor might cause a human pandemic. Its world-wide eradication from poultry is important to protect public health. The global trend of outbreaks of influenza attributable to HPAI H5N1 shows a clear seasonality. Meteorological factors might be associated with such trend but have not been studied. For the first time, we analyze the role of meteorological factors in the occurrences of HPAI outbreaks in Bangladesh. We employed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) to assess the roles of different meteorological factors in outbreaks of HPAI. Outbreaks were modeled best when multiplicative seasonality was incorporated. Incorporation of any meteorological variable(s) as inputs did not improve the performance of any multivariable models, but relative humidity (RH) was a significant covariate in several ARIMA and SARIMA models with different autoregressive and moving average orders. The variable cloud cover was also a significant covariate in two SARIMA models, but air temperature along with RH might be a predictor when moving average (MA) order at lag 1 month is considered.
PMID:
24886857
[PubMed - in process]
Free full text
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24886857