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MERS doesn't have pandemic potential ? yet

Shiloh

Shiloh

Editor, Senior Moderator
Source: http://metronews.ca/news/canada/728484/mers-doesnt-have-pandemic-potential-yet/


July 4, 2013 Updated: July 4, 2013 | 6:44 pm
MERS doesn't have pandemic potential ? yet
By Helen Branswell The Canadian Press

TORONTO ? The new MERS coronavirus currently doesn?t spread well enough among people to trigger a pandemic, says a new study that calculates the rate at which the virus is transmitting person to person.

But the senior author says the pattern of how the virus is spreading now cannot be used to predict whether MERS will become a bigger threat in the future.

?There is absolutely no guarantee that this virus will stay as it is. It could very well follow the same path as SARS did 10 years ago,? Dr. Arnaud Fontanet, who heads the emerging diseases epidemiology unit at the Institut Pasteur in Paris, said in an interview...
 
Re: MERS doesn't have pandemic potential ? yet

Source: http://thechart.blogs.cnn.com/2013/07/04/mers-wont-cause-pandemic-for-now-experts-say/

July 4th, 2013
06:34 PM ET
MERS unlikely to cause pandemic - for now, experts say

For the past few months, near-daily reports of new cases and deaths from a new type of coronavirus called MERS raised fears that another pandemic, similar to SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), was looming.

That's not the case, according to new research from France published Thursday in the British medical journal The Lancet.

A mathematical analysis of the known cases suggests that "MERS-CoV does not yet have pandemic potential," even when looking at the worst-case scenario, according to researchers. They looked at the "reproduction value" or R-value, which is a calculation of the number of infections caused by one infected person...
 
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