tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Math Biosci Eng
. 2021 Nov 29;19(1):1058-1077.
doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022049.
Investigating the impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical measures in curbing COVID-19 spread: A South Africa perspective
Shina D Oloniiju[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Olumuyiwa Otegbeye[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Absalom E Ezugwu[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
The year 2020 brought about a pandemic that caught most of the world population by surprise and wreaked unimaginable havoc before any form of effective reaction could be put in place. COVID-19 is proving to be an epidemic that keeps on having an upsurge whenever it looks like it is being curbed. This pandemic has led to continuous strategizing on approaches to quelling the surge. The recent and welcome introduction of vaccines has led to renewed optimism for the population at large. The introduction of vaccines has led to the need to investigate the effect of vaccination among other control measures in the fight against COVID-19. In this study, we develop a mathematical model that captures the dynamics of the disease taking into consideration some measures that are easier to implement majorly within the African context. We consider quarantine and vaccination as control measures and investigate the efficacy of these measures in curbing the reproduction rate of the disease. We analyze the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium point. We also perform sensitivity analysis of the effective reproduction number to determine which parameters significantly lowers the effective reproduction number. The results obtained suggest that quarantine and a vaccine with at least 75% efficacy and reducing transmission probability through sanitation and wearing of protective gears can significantly reduce the number of secondary infections.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV2; coronaviruses; non-pharmaceutical; vaccination.
. 2021 Nov 29;19(1):1058-1077.
doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022049.
Investigating the impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical measures in curbing COVID-19 spread: A South Africa perspective
Shina D Oloniiju[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Olumuyiwa Otegbeye[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Absalom E Ezugwu[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34903026
- DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2022049
Abstract
The year 2020 brought about a pandemic that caught most of the world population by surprise and wreaked unimaginable havoc before any form of effective reaction could be put in place. COVID-19 is proving to be an epidemic that keeps on having an upsurge whenever it looks like it is being curbed. This pandemic has led to continuous strategizing on approaches to quelling the surge. The recent and welcome introduction of vaccines has led to renewed optimism for the population at large. The introduction of vaccines has led to the need to investigate the effect of vaccination among other control measures in the fight against COVID-19. In this study, we develop a mathematical model that captures the dynamics of the disease taking into consideration some measures that are easier to implement majorly within the African context. We consider quarantine and vaccination as control measures and investigate the efficacy of these measures in curbing the reproduction rate of the disease. We analyze the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium point. We also perform sensitivity analysis of the effective reproduction number to determine which parameters significantly lowers the effective reproduction number. The results obtained suggest that quarantine and a vaccine with at least 75% efficacy and reducing transmission probability through sanitation and wearing of protective gears can significantly reduce the number of secondary infections.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV2; coronaviruses; non-pharmaceutical; vaccination.