match of flu-vaccine with circulating strains

[gsgs]

For Europe, it's here:
http://www.eiss.org/cgi-files/figure...=Europe&type=v


also WHO-flunet:
http://gamapserver.who.int/GlobalAtl...oSelection.asp
but I couldn't find the strains there


links corrected:
http://www.eiss.org/cgi-files/figures2002.cgi?year=2007&week=3&region=Europe&type=v
http://gamapserver.who.int/GlobalAtlas/InteractiveMap/MainFrame2.asp




from:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weekl...03/weekly20.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weekl...04/weekly20.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weekl...05/weekly20.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weekl...06/weekly20.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weekl...07/weekly20.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2007-2008/weekly19.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/weekly39.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2009-2010/weekly20.htm


I calculate the probabilities of matching the USA-vaccine as:
2002/2003 : 580/588 = 98.6%
2003/2004: 114/991 = 11.5%
2004/2005: 339/920 = 36.8%
2005/2006: 474/828 = 57.2%
2006/2007: (16/42 = 38.1%)


from:
http://www.eiss.org/cgi-files/figur...n=Europe&type=v
http://www.eiss.org/cgi-files/figur...n=Europe&type=v
http://www.eiss.org/cgi-files/figur...n=Europe&type=v
http://www.eiss.org/cgi-files/figur...n=Europe&type=v
http://www.eiss.org/cgi-files/figur...n=Europe&type=v


I calculate the probabilities of matching the European-vaccine as:
2002/2003 :419/872 = 48.1%
2003/2004: 3/913 = 0.3%
2004/2005: 122/398 = 30.7%
2005/2006: 813/2195 = 37.0%
2006/2007: (21/26 = 80.8%)


when you are vaccinated each year, the chances are better, since the protection holds more than 1 year.
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USA 2002/3 : n=588,H1=229(100%),H3=105(93%),B=254(99%)
USA 2003/4 : n=991,H1=3(100%),H3=918(11%),B=70(7%)
USA 2004/5 : n=920,H1=9(100%),H3=646(24%),B=265(66%)
USA 2005/6 : n=828,H1=88(97%),H3=503(76%),B=237(22%)
USA 2006/7 : n=740,H1=358(92%),H3=173(25%),B=209(41%)
USA 2007/8 : n=881,H1=381(69%),H3=280(21%),B=220(3%)
USA 2008/9 : n=2209,Mx=822(100%),H1=1182(98%),H3=276(83%),B=714(88%?)
USA 2009/0 : n=1895,Mx=1847(100%),H1=2(100%),H3=14(0%),B=32(84%)

 

[Ganseerpel]

Re: match of flu-vaccine with circulating strains

Link 1 and 2 don't work.

 

[gsgs]

Re: match of flu-vaccine with circulating strains

links 1 and 2:

http://www.eiss.org/cgi-files/figures2002.cgi?year=2007&week=3&region=Europe&type=v
http://gamapserver.who.int/GlobalAtlas/InteractiveMap/MainFrame2.asp



update on 2006/2007 as of week 3,2007:
match for USA (71/107)=66.4%
match for Europe (222/278)=79.9%

 

[vinny]

Re: match of flu-vaccine with circulating strains

are these for next years vaccines.?.

 

[gsgs]

Re: match of flu-vaccine with circulating strains

this season.

Next season vaccine will be determined in a few months by WHO.

 

[gsgs]

Re: match of flu-vaccine with circulating strains

for H3N2 in USA it is:

2000/1: 100% match (30 viruses, Panama-vaccine-strain)
2001/2: 100%,378,Panama
2002/3: 93%,105,Panama
2003/4: 12%,918,Panama
2004/5: 24%,646,Wyoming=Fujian
2005/6: 76%,503,California
2006/7: 25%,173,Wisconsin
2007/8: 11%,53,Wisconsin (so far)