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Massive outbreak of bird flu in NE (India) predicted

H

HenryN

Retired
Massive outbreak of bird flu in NE predicted

Shillong: With the avian flu spreading fast in West Bengal, panic gripped Meghalaya today following a prediction by researchers about a possible "massive outbreak" of the disease in the Northeast.

A "prediction map" prepared by research associate Dr Dibyendu Adhikari and Arun Chettri of the Department of Botany, North Eastern Hill University (NEHU), which was made public today, claimed that some areas in Northeastern region were vulnerable to the H5N1 virus.

The map also highlighted areas in West Bengal, which has already been affected by the out break of the virus, and most districts of Bangladesh which had a "suitable environment for proliferation of the bird flu".

Though the map covers potential risk zones of bird flu in almost all northeastern states, including Assam, Tripura, Manipur and Mizoram, the hilly areas in Meghalaya, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh have been identified as lower-risk zone.

Adhikari and Chettri said the prediction map of the potential risk areas of bird flu in the Northeastern India was made through the technique of Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM).

ENM involves using artificial intelligence algorithm called Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction (GARP) along with the Geograhic Information System (GIS) technology, they said.

They called for precautionary measures like proper monitoring of the areas visited by migratory birds in Assam to check spread of avian influenza in the region.

http://news.in.msn.com/national/article.aspx?cp-documentid=1214928
 
Re: Massive outbreak of bird flu in NE (India) predicted

Does anyone have a copy of the map? I can't find it through normal searches.

J.
 
Re: Massive outbreak of bird flu in NE (India) predicted

SHILLONG: With the avian flu spreading fast in West Bengal, panic gripped Meghalaya on Wednesday following a prediction by researchers about a possible "massive outbreak" of the disease in the Northeast.

A "prediction map" prepared by research associate Dr Dibyendu Adhikari and Arun Chettri of the Department of Botany, North Eastern Hill University (NEHU), which was made public on Wednesday, claimed that some areas in Northeastern region were vulnerable to the H5N1 virus.

The map also highlighted areas in West Bengal, which has already been affected by the out break of the virus, and most districts of Bangladesh which had a "suitable environment for proliferation of the bird flu".

Though the map covers potential risk zones of bird flu in almost all northeastern states, including Assam, Tripura, Manipur and Mizoram, the hilly areas in Meghalaya, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh have been identified as lower-risk zone.

Adhikari and Chettri said the prediction map of the potential risk areas of bird flu in the Northeastern India was made through the technique of Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM).

ENM involves using artificial intelligence algorithm called Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction (GARP) along with the Geograhic Information System (GIS) technology, they said.

They called for precautionary measures like proper monitoring of the areas visited by migratory birds in Assam to check spread of avian influenza in the region.

In earlier studies, the technique successfully predicted the prevalence of infectious diseases like ebola, chagas, human monkeypox, malaria and dengue in different parts of the world, Adhikari and Chettri said.

The researchers said they had used 28 environmental parameters for modeling the distribution of the avian influenza virus in northeastern India.

The predictions claimed that areas like Nalbari, Rangiya, Guwahati, Tezpur, Kamrup, Barpeta, Goalpara, Dhubri, Kokrajhar, Bongaigaon, Manas, Kaziranga, Udalguri, Karbi Anglong, Golaghat, Dhekiajuli, Rangapara, Nagaon and Diphu in Assam were likely to be affected by the flu virus.

"Further analysis shows that the predicted areas in Assam are mostly visited by migratory birds. Proper monitoring of the areas is needed to check spread of bird flu," they said.

Veterinary officials, who were bombarded by queries from the people after the report was made public, brushed aside the predictions and said there was no such threat as of now.

"It is mere assumption. We don't agree. The report is bound to create panic. We have taken necessary measures to ensure there is no outbreak of bird flu in the state," Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Director D Khonglah said.

"The veterinary department's map of the places visited by migratory birds contradict the one developed by the researchers," he said.

Meanwhile, the state has sent around 60 blood samples of chicken collected from different parts of the state for testing for bird flu virus to Bhopal.

"The report is likely to come in about four days," Khonglah said.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...d_flu_in_NE_predicted/articleshow/2744263.cms
 
Re: Massive outbreak of bird flu in NE (India) predicted

Examples of Ecological Niche Models from GARP

GARP is an acronym for Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production. GARP is an algorithm primarily designed for predicting the potential distribution of biological entities from raster based environmental and biological data. This post describes examples of the interpretation of different sets of rules developed by GARP.

http://landshape.org/enm/examples-of-ecological-niche-models-generated-by-garp/
 
Re: Massive outbreak of bird flu in NE (India) predicted

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="450"><tbody><tr><td class="headline">
Uttarakhand monitoring migratory birds</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="news"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="450"> <tbody><tr> <td class="news">
Pioneer News Service | Dehradun</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="news" colspan="2" valign="top">
In the backdrop of spread of bird flu to areas of eastern Uttar Pradesh, the Uttarakhand Wildlife authorities are constantly monitoring the movement of migratory birds arriving in the water bodies of the State to meet any eventuality. However, no case of bird flu has been reported from the State so far.
</td> </tr> </tbody></table></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="news" colspan="2" valign="top">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="news" colspan="2" valign="top">The State attracts migratory birds in big numbers which can be potential carriers of flu and that has been the reason for the wildlife authorities keeping constant monitoring of their movements. "We have set up committees that are keeping constant vigil on the movement of migratory birds at different water bodies of the State", Chief Wildlife Warden of Uttarakhand SK Chandola told The Pioneer on Friday.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="news" colspan="2" valign="top">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="news" colspan="2" valign="top">Any unnatural movement of birds is immediately tracked and the reasons ascertained. Similarly, the village committees are conducting constant vigil at the Asan Conservation Reserve, one of the most important bird areas of the country.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="news" colspan="2" valign="top">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="news" colspan="2" valign="top">"The local village committees and the forest officials are constantly monitoring the movements of birds but no case of any unnatural death of birds has been reported so far", BP Gupta, Conservator of forests Yamuna Circle under whose jurisdiction Asan Conservation Reserve falls confirmed this to The Pioneer. The Asan Conservation Reserve has this year recorded over 6,000 migratory birds in the annual bird count that is expected to conclude by February 15.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="news" colspan="2" valign="top">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="news" colspan="2" valign="top">Uttarakhand has large number of water bodies in the State which apart from Asan Reserve has Bhimgowda Barrage, Kalagarh Dam, Nanaksagar as major water bodies that attract migratory birds in big numbers.

http://www.dailypioneer.com/indexn12.asp?main_variable=DEHRADUN&file_name=DUN1.txt&counter_img=1


</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
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