Luck has kept Ebola out of the U.S. But that?s very likely to change.

[MHSC]

Only a fluke of timing prevented Kent Brantly from being in Texas when he got sick with Ebola.

Brantly, the first U.S. doctor to get Ebola, was infected in late July while working at a missionary hospital in Liberia. But he didn?t immediately realize he was ill. That?s one of Ebola?s tricks: The virus can take three weeks to appear, although severe signs usually strike within 10 days. Still, that?s time enough for someone to jump on a plane and fly around the world.

So Brantly was already infected with Ebola but not yet sick ? and thus not yet contagious ? when, on July 20, his wife and children flew from Liberia to Texas for a wedding. The doctor was scheduled to meet them in Texas a week later. He never made that flight. He fell sick three days later. An Ebola diagnosis followed. He soon made a high-security medical evacuation to Emory University Hospital in Atlanta where he eventually recovered.

But Brantly came exceedingly close to returning to the United States with Ebola. As a doctor, he would?ve taken precautions to prevent anyone else from getting sick. However, the resulting panic ? ?Ebola in Texas!? ? might have been impossible to contain.

A bit of luck was involved there.

...

Maintaining this lucky streak will only get more difficult ? and soon impossible ? as the outbreak grows exponentially.

?It is not unexpected that we are lucky so far,? said professor Alessandro Vespignani at Northeastern University, who runs a model projecting Ebola?s spread. There?s about a 10 percent chance of a single Ebola case getting imported to the United States in the next week. ?The problem is what will happen in October, when we will likely have a much larger probability.?

And if the epidemic reaches anything close to 1.4 million cases, the worst-case projection for four months out, then Ebola in the United States becomes a near-certainty. That doesn?t mean an outbreak, but at least one case.

...


The problem is that the odds are getting lower. The lucky streak can not continue if the epidemic is not brought under control.

When Brantly was infected, there were only about 1,000 Ebola cases.

And he nearly got to Texas.

Now, just two months later, there have been nearly 5,900.

That number could quadruple to 20,000 by early November, health officials said.

?The probability,? Vespignani said, ? is increasing week by week.?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-the-united-states-but-thats-going-to-change/

 

[Rose]

Re: Luck has kept Ebola out of the U.S. But that?s very likely to change.

Very well said! The fact that we have doctors contracting ebola in maternity wards, that weren't considered high risk should raise the alarm. All persons entering any facility at this point should be considered as a potential patient possibly exposed in the coming weeks in these areas. Tracking in the US given technology may be a bit easier however the results exponentially the same given the rapid increase. Let us also consider we may not be so lucky that someone exposed will self contain. This will not shut down in my opinion and until it reaches the shores of other continents who then become truly affected. Until then we won't see the response that was needed. By then is it too late?