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Looking for Norwegian virus variant

Anty

Active member
Looking for Norwegian virus variant

Health authorities investigate whether the swine influenza virus in Norway is of a slightly different variant than in our neighboring countries. That may explain why so many die here.
The number of dead is skyh?yt of our neighbors. . In Sweden, two died, and in Denmark it is so far no one has died of swine flu. And Norwegian health authorities do not understand why. Now start the Health Directorate of an investigation of all the 13 deaths to determine whether anything has been done wrong. A possible explanation for the large difference in mortality is that the virus in Norway is of a slightly different variation. The Norwegian authorities looking for such a mutation, but has so far not found it.
Another variation?
?-Is there any reason to believe that there may be another variant of virus in Norway than in countries with far lower number of deaths?
-All countries in the world are looking to see if the virus is changing. Vi We know that influenza viruses can be unstable, and that new influenza viruses often are. Therefore, we are examining it all the time. . We have a completely fresh surveys showing that the virus is the same as we have in neighboring countries, and that is internationally, "said health director Bj?rn-Inge Larsen.
?If there is a different variation so it will be able to explain the difference in the mortality?
-Yes, it could. So there will be a natural thing to look for when you have higher mortality rates in one country than in others. . It is also the reason why we investigate, and the investigation is ongoing. Another explanation for higher incidence of serious illness and death in Norway is of course that we currently have more disease than in other countries without that we can put your finger on why this is so. Most likely it is that neighboring countries to follow us, "says LArsen
Unstable virus
Professor Steinar Westin, Department of Community Medicine at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) says that the high Norwegian death toll caused by swine flu is a big topic of conversation in the curriculum for the future. He agrees that a separate Norwegian variant of the virus would be a possible explanation.

?-It will then say that the virus has mutated, but it is not proven that it has. . Health authorities are really on their toes in order to reveal any such mutation as soon as possible. The virus is the type of RNA, and there are viruses that are genetically more unstable than other viruses. When there are so many sick people have the opportunity to change the properties be "angrier" or possibly "kinder," says Westin.
Avdelingsoverlege Vidar Ormaasen of infectious medical department at Oslo University Hospital, Ullevaal, is more in doubt.

-It can theoretically vote, but I think it is fairly unlikely, writes Ormaasen in an e-mail.
Also Dean Nina Langeland at the medical faculty in Bergen, who just days ago came from the position as head of the Institute for Infection Medicine at Haukeland University Hospital, is skeptical.

? -A more likely explanation is that we have insufficient numbers for the real number of sick people in different countries. Thus, the rates of mortality also very uncertain. We know not how big the difference is in mortality between the Nordic countries, "she says
Investigation
In addition to searching for another variant of the virus, should all deaths are investigated thoroughly.

. -The numbers in Norway are so divergent in the moment that we want to make sure that it is not something we miss in terms of mortality figures. Therefore, we started to do a full review of these 13 deaths to see if it can be anything, either on the prevention side, or the treatment side, which could have been done differently.
-Is there a difference in the medical treatment of patients between countries?

-No, in very small degree. I mainly treated patients just like, so there must be at a level of detail that we have not seen if there is any such difference.
google translated from
http://www.aftenposten.no/helse/article3345128.ece
 
Re: Looking for Norwegian virus variant

We see this reaction elswhere too (India f.i.): trying to explain the - apperently unexpected - virulence of the new H1N1 virus. No such mutations are found anywhere until now.


Looking for Norwegian swine flu mutation

13 swine flu victims lead Norway on the European summit in mortality. A Norwegian mutation may be the explanation.

Norwegian health authorities now investigating whether the swine influenza virus in Norway is of a different variant than in our neighboring countries.

That may explain why many die in Norway than in other countries.

Explosive development
Tuesday was the health authorities confirmed that a woman in the 30s from London had influenza A (H1N1). She died the same day at the Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet.

Wednesday killed a man in his 20s from Oppland in the same hospital. Also he was infected with the disease.

Thus, 13 people died as a result of swine flu in Norway, including a Danish citizen.

- The number of swine flu cases has exploded, "says director Geir Stene-Larsen at the NIPH.

Worst in Europe
Norway is therefore of Europe summit in terms of mortality. In Sweden, only two died so far. In Denmark there is currently no one who has lost his life.

Norwegian health authorities do not know why this is so, writes Aftenposten. According to NTB Health Directorate now started an investigation of all the 13 deaths to determine whether anything has been done wrong.

Mutation
A possible explanation for the large difference in mortality is that the virus in Norway is of a slightly different variation. The Norwegian authorities looking for such a mutation, but has so far not found it.

- All countries in the world are looking to see if the virus is changing. We know that influenza viruses can be unstable, and that new influenza viruses often are. Therefore, we are examining it all the time. We have a completely fresh surveys showing that the virus is the same as we have in neighboring countries, and that is internationally, "said health director Bj?rn-Inge Larsen, according to NTB.

Possible Norwegian variant
Professor Steinar Westin, Department of Community Medicine at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) says that the high Norwegian death toll caused by swine flu is a big topic of conversation in the curriculum for the future.

He agrees that a separate Norwegian variant of the virus would be a possible explanation.

No social geographical explanations
It is currently difficult to explain the high death toll in Norway compared with other Western countries by using sociological or social geographic conditions, according to Lise Kj?lsr?d, professor of sociology at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo.

- Currently, one has little understanding of this disease. It makes it difficult to draw any sociological conclusions, "said Kj?lsr?d.

Scandinavia, and Norway in particular, is characterized by a high confidence level of public institutions, according to her.

- Here we scored highly in the international context. We have confidence in all kinds of institutions and to each other. We think perhaps even less than others that it can happen to us. It can cause us to not protect us as much. But all this is just guesswork.

She points out that the available figures on the number of dead in the different countries do not say anything about the incidence of the disease.

- Suppose we knew that the higher rate led to more deaths. Then one might think that the trust had something to say, but it is worth little, as long as we do not know anything about how many people are sick.

http://www.dagbladet.no/2009/10/29/nyheter/svineinfluensa/helse/vaksine/8784028/
 
Re: Looking for Norwegian virus variant

Whether a drift variant may be actually emerged in Norway remains to be established.

In Italy a geographically widespread high intensity influenza-like illness acitivity is underway.

To date, almost nine people died, most of them in the last two week.

Overall ILI incidence is around 3,85 for 1,000 inhabitants, with a peak in the 5-14 years-old class age (16,80 for 1,000).

No vaccine delivery is scheduled for schoolchildren (5-18 years old class age).

A single explanation for this situation is not readily available but the overconfidence on health care infrastructure resilience could be part of the problem.
 
Re: Looking for Norwegian virus variant

Does anyone have a URL for the Norwegian ILI reports? Looking at the Euroflu charts something immediately jumps out at me.

attachment.php


attachment.php


By far the highest rates are in the 15-64 age group if this chart is correct and that is very unusual.

And here's what Google thinks has happened since that top chart was updated.

attachment.php

Google's current estimate is 451 per 100 thousand.
 

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Re: Looking for Norwegian virus variant

upload the sequences, so we can compare !

what do Norwegians eat this time of year ?
 
Re: Looking for Norwegian virus variant

Latest ILI chart from link above

attachment.php


Looks to roughly match Google up to that point but Google has continued to increase rapidly this week.
 

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Re: Looking for Norwegian virus variant

Doesn't Norway have the same population as Scotland ? I think we have a higher incidence of flu and deaths here ? Unless they are not counting Scotland as europe... How does Norway & Scotland compare, can anybody tell me ?
 
Re: Looking for Norwegian virus variant

Norway population just under 5 million. Scotland just over 5 million. But ILI in Norway has only just passed Scotland in the last two weeks and now is well over the Scottish rate on latest official figures. All other things being equal the Norwegian death toll would be expected to pass Scotland's soon unless Scottish rates accelerate again.

That said Scottish deaths are continuing to increase and worryingly 176 people were admitted to hospital last week in Scotland but apparently only 144 have been admitted in Norway since September 1st. It is difficult to make sense of this.
 
Re: Looking for Norwegian virus variant

Viruses do not respect borders. If there is a variant of the virus in Norway, one would expect surrounding countries to also show an anomolous rise in illness/death.
 
Re: Looking for Norwegian virus variant

So it's possible its just a temporary blip thing ? Are we being too quick to pounce on numbers here ? Maybe we need to step back and wait a bit longer? I wish I knew all about this kind of stuff, it's very interesting !
 
Re: Looking for Norwegian virus variant

Viruses do not respect borders. If there is a variant of the virus in Norway, one would expect surrounding countries to also show an anomolous rise in illness/death.

As of the latest report the marked increase was mainly confined to central, southern Norway so if a new strain is spreading it is still probably too local to show up much in neighbouring countries - that could change rapidly of course.

That said, as Ming points out, it doesn't look any more virulent than what is being seen in Scotland. There have now been 25 deaths in Scotland which is double the Norwegian death toll.
 
Re: Looking for Norwegian virus variant

Public health now dismiss that we have a different virus here, but I am not convinced, the investigation has just started.

The influenza virus A (H1N1) in Norway as in other countries
[29.10.2009] From the first cases of new influenza A (H1N1) was detected in Norway, NIPH received influenza viruses from all over the country for further investigation.

The virus' genetic material, RNA, will retail examined with so-called gensekvensering to look for mutations and gene sequences that may explain the virus's ability to give serious illness. So far, the reference laboratory at NIPH not detected any changes in the virus' genes which may explain why so many have become seriously ill and died in Norway compared with our neighboring countries. The virus circulating in Norway are not significantly different from those circulating in other countries.

[Published: 29/10/2009]

Link to press release:
http://pandemi.no/pandemi/samme_influensavirus_a_h1n1__i_norge_som_i_andre_land_620664

Samme influensavirus A(H1N1) i Norge som i andre land
[29.10.2009 ] Fra de f?rste tilfellene av ny influensa A(H1N1) ble p?vist i Norge, har Folkehelseinstituttet mottatt influensavirus fra hele landet til videre unders?kelser.


Virusets arvestoff, RNA, blir detaljunders?kt med s?kalt gensekvensering for ? lete etter mutasjoner og gensekvenser som kan forklare virusets evne til ? gi alvorlig sykdom. S? langt har referanselaboratoriet ved Folkehelseinstituttet ikke p?vist noen endringer i virusets gener som kan forklare at s? mange har blitt alvorlig syke og d?dd i Norge sammenliknet med v?re naboland. Viruset som sirkulerer i Norge er ikke vesentlig forskjellig fra det som sirkulerer i andre land
 
Re: Looking for Norwegian virus variant

und wieder dieser Durchh?nger, wie in Frankreich,New York (Mai)

Wetter,Schulferien oder was ?
 
Re: Looking for Norwegian virus variant

question: is it the CFR that is abnormally high or the taking off of the case counts? traditionally norway has a huge student population to the UK - so this might explain why the number of infections is higher than in other european countries and more compareable to say canada.
 
Re: Looking for Norwegian virus variant

The reason for the many Norwegian deaths, is hard to tell so early, but some possible theories could be:

- Worse medical expertise in hospitals in Norway vs for example Sweden and Denmark.
- More infections in Norway vs other Nordic countries.
- Coincidences? 12 of the 14 deaths have been in risk groups.
- New variant of the virus?


Mortality in Europe: (Source: http://www.dagbladet.no/2009/10/29/nyheter/svineinfluensa/helse/vaksine/8789264/)

Nr: Country: Dead: Mill.innhab.:
1 Iceland 1 0,304
2 Malta 5 0,408
3 Norway 14 4,725
4 Ireland 10 4,435
5 Luxembourg 1 0,473
6 UK 130 61,601
7 Spain 54 46,061
8 Belgium 5 9,735
9 Hungary 4 10,075
10 Netherlands 6 16,518
11 Portugal 3 10,709
12 France* 17 62,448
13 Greece 3 11,245
14 Bulgaria 2 7,621
15 Sweden 2 9,290
16 Finland 1 5,357
17 Czech Republic 1 10,256
18 Italy 4 60,051
19 Germany 3 82,551
 
Re: Looking for Norwegian virus variant

Does anyone have a URL for the Norwegian ILI reports? Looking at the Euroflu charts something immediately jumps out at me.


84a67fae5d.jpg


Source: http://www.fhi.no/eway/default.aspx...:0:0&MainLeft_5565=5544:80780::1:5569:1:::0:0

c83516361c.jpg


Inneliggende på andre avdelinger = In hospital, but not intensiv care.
Inneliggende på intensiv avdeling = Intensiv care.
Antall pasienter = Number of patients.

f7b7ef69e4.jpg


Aldersgruppe = Agegroup
Antall tilfeller = Number of cases
Kvinner = Women
And menn... You guesedd it.... Men...
 
Re: Looking for Norwegian virus variant

multi factors: however I stick to the undedcted seed brought back by the norwegian student population to the UK. just check the historical numbers. the population size could be comparable to local hot spots in the US. Can anyone (who is capable of crunching the numbers) can compare a US military hots-spot like san diego to norway?
 
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