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Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

4-ABBA

Well-known member
If a full blown pandemic of 50%+ CFR hits, social, economic, trade, resource, medical and communication systems world wide will be badly hit.

Hay anybody thought about: HOW WILL THEY BE PUT BACK TOGETHER?

In 1918, communities were far more locally based...making recovery more locally feasible.

If many businesses (including food suppliers) suffer because of loss of workers, loss of net capital flow, loss of trading partners, and loss of access to merchandise / resources with which they produce "product," will this impede their ability to recover?

Has there already been a discussion about this on FT?

4-ABBA
 
Re: Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

I think in many instances, recovery will be local. For large recovery needs, it may also trickle top down- such as the power grid...I can see the military Corps of Engineers or some similar govt entitiy running that kind of project.

So it think you're looking at both- a top down trickle for large systems and a bottom up local recovery for things that can be controlled locally- such as energy coops that do produce their own power and arent grid dependant for energy purchase. Local food and other production such as manufacturing of needed items may be exapmles of that.

I'd also see partnerships between govt and manufactures and other corproate entities. Shipping might be a good example-it may be necesary to secure routes and provide fuel if has become scarce.

Just soem thoughts, no actual knowledge behind them

But its one of the reasons I disagree with the criticism that the federal govt seems to be more concerned with continuity of goverment than it is with what some folks think it should be paying more attention to. I dont see any other approach that will allow recovery and mitigate social effects- continuity of goverment is IMHO essential to recovery and security and social order.

The web needs a foundation! Continuity of goverment (not individual leaders but the systems and authority itself!) is IMHO critical to recovery and should be their first concern.

My beleif is that local and state goverments have been warned but they just arent "getting" it yet. Maybe now that elections are over, more local prep efforts will occur...at least I hope so.

Just liek in real estate, location may well be be a big factor in outcomes, and that may be based on how seriously and deeply local preps occur, and how flexible and fluid local systems (and the people running them!) are in dealing with disruption.
 
Re: Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

4-ABBA:

YOu do have heritage seeds, a horse and buggy, canner, oil lamps, and a wood stove, right?

But getting Starbucks back up and running will be the real challenge. :D

Seriously, the aftermath will require an attitude adjustment. Fewer creature comforts and more do-it-yourself, or doing-with-your-neighbors.

.
 
Re: Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

keep a copy of the bill of rights and the constitution with you.
 
Re: Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

Food. Food production is going to be sooooooo critical. Food worries me very much....because it is needed most--often has the longest supply chain, and it's next to impossible for city dwellers to do anything about if they do not have stored food or viable seeds.

And even then--it takes MONTHS to turn seeds into food.

I know that many people have discussed SIP and producing your own food supply. That does not speak to the other 95+ % who will not be able to produce their own food.


(Sorry for the bold text, but food is king.)

AlaskaDenise said:
4-ABBA:

YOu do have heritage seeds, a horse and buggy, canner, oil lamps, and a wood stove, right?

But getting Starbucks back up and running will be the real challenge. :D

Seriously, the aftermath will require an attitude adjustment. Fewer creature comforts and more do-it-yourself, or doing-with-your-neighbors.

.
 
Re: Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

Recovery is probably impossibe to predict & plan for. It will be battlefield decisions.

LMonty' point is important - government continuity will be important to provide structure and supervision. But obviously, they won't be able to do it all.

Another issue - will there be sufficient tax income to support needed government services? Will the government workers work for reduced or delayed wages?

I trust that the farmers in the eastern part of your state will continue to grow crops, in fact there may be a surplus if they cannot export abroad.

.
 
Re: Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

AlaskaDenise said:
I trust that the farmers in the eastern part of your state will continue to grow crops, in fact there may be a surplus if they cannot export abroad.
.

If farmers are using hybrid seeds--which most do these days--will this be feasible? And ?? about the fuels to run their machinery?

(:oops:)

And yes--LMonty's post was very relevant--and even moreso when added to yours: Will govt work with drastically reduced tax revenue?

EVERYTHING
is interconnected.
 
Re: Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

If the pandemic is as bad as we can imagine (based on a 60% CFR), any recovery will only be local.
 
Re: Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

Laidback Al said:
If the pandemic is as bad as we can imagine (based on a 60% CFR), any recovery will only be local.

I wish you were wrong, Al.

But I don't see any other way, either. Interconnections that are everywhere in modern commerce / resources systems, capital formation, healthcare, and labor will be cut.
 
Re: Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

4-ABBA said:
If farmers are using hybrid seeds--which most do these days--will this be feasible? And ?? about the fuels to run their machinery?


Most larger farms have fuel storage onsite, but not enough to plant all the fields. Hopefully the government has a plan to make farms a priority for gas delivery.
 
Re: Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

Thank you 4-ABBa to raise this relevant point.

2006/2007 is quite different than 1918 in many aspects.

First, the percentage of people now living in urban area is quite different than in 1918.

The regional suppliers, of food and services has drastically been reduced in the last 100 years.

The Social behaviors is not the same has 1918.

The personnal power of individuals in face of sosiety is quite different too, with the inventions of automatic and semi-automatic weapons.

Communications capacity has changed for the worst and the best.

Transportation is swifter and more diversified.

Informations on all kinds of subjects are more accesssible now.

The preparedness of our Nationals securities and Civil Protection has been quite enhanced compare to 1918.

The foresight of our Security forces and their logistically capacity is totally different than in the last century.

The legal framework of our securities is not the same as in 1918, they now have more latitude.

The communications capacities to our citizens has been extremelay upgraded in the last century.

The confidence of our citizens towards our admins has been reduced.

The threat of pandemic, in our days, makes us more conscious of the tasks to be done.

In 1918, the task was maijnly in the hands of locals and to some extent but modestly to our national organisation. (We where engaged in a World War then.

In face of all these changes, our admins and Natioanl Security Forces, have not kept sitting on their ass with all their capacity to anticipate and their capacity to react to such an event.

Our logistics, our capacity to precisely intervene, our acces to budgets, to intel, to swift intervention capacity just cant be compare to the ones we had in 1918.

But mostly, our intelligence to foresee, to evaluate myriads of scenarios just cant be compare to the ones we had in 1918.

The US has been divided into 10 regions, each regions shows some capacity and have most of the resources to cope with the needs of its intra-muros territory.

Those regions in US have been stated in FEMA.

As for Canada, you have the Maritimes Provinces, the Prairies and BC are under the juridiction of the RCMP (Royal Canadian Monted Police), that is 3 regions, altough BC has some US influences since it is the land bridge to Alaska. You have Qu?bec under the juridiction of the Suret? du Qu?bec, it is like netween a State Police Status amd a ""Naytional Organisation'' with its Intel and its own 'modus Operandi. (One more Region). You have Ontario OPP (Ontario Police) more as a State Police (another region. Then you have up-north Nunavuk a region under the juridiction of RCMP and First Nations Executive Forces,

Finally you have way up-Canada, in the Artic, a gray Zone, with some Canadian forces, US Forces and France Forces.

So for Northcom we have 17 regions. Most of them have all the resources to be autonomous and are able to trade strategic resources in an inter-regional mode.

As you can see, North America is becoming something different than what we have been used to see and understand from a State or Province of view.

Our Securities have work very hard to used optimally all the historical lay out and resources so that our North Continent can cope with this the best we can with all these various resources in our regions.

This is extremely positive, and I am sure that retrospectively we will be proud of this pre-emptiveness concern of our National Securities concern and solutions.

So, to get back to 4-ABBA statement, it should be stated how will be able to coordonnate our multi regional whelath and our inter-regional exchanges.

Snowy
 
Re: Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

Sorry, I certainly would appreciate our members point of view of the lay out describe above.

Thank you.

Snowy
 
Re: Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

4-ABBA said:
If farmers are using hybrid seeds--which most do these days--will this be feasible? And ?? about the fuels to run their machinery?......

Think - APPLES!

and applesauce

and apple pie

and apple juice

and apple everything!

Then think apricots, pears, grapes, etc.

In the past, we ate those same crops without pesticides, hormone sprays, stop-drop, etc. We learned to check for worms before we ate the fruit.

My familiy lives in the middle of apple country and believe me - there will be excess!

WHen my mom lived through the depression and fuel, etc. was an issue - they ate LOTS of what was easy & cheap to grow. I actually enjoy many of the depression food dishes.

.
 
Re: Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

AlaskaDenise said:
...
My familiy lives in the middle of apple country and believe me - there will be excess!

In the event of a severe pandemic, those excess apples will provide the foundations for a local system of bartering. Throughout history trading and bartering were based on a simple truism. I trade my excesses to you, and you trade your excesses to me (fruits, seeds, goods, labor, etc.). The local excesses are what will jump start a local economy after a pandemic.
 
Re: Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

Do all the grain crops--the main staples of humanity--have to be replanted every year? Including beans?
 
Re: Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

4-ABBA said:
Do all the grain crops--the main staples of humanity--have to be replanted every year? Including beans?

Yes. They must be planted each year.
 
Re: Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

Not all grain crops are annuals - but I'm not sure of details.

Many of those replanted crops are headed for the large volume export market, which may not be functioning.

Asparagus is in E. Washington.....it takes 3 years to start, then it's a perennial. Grapes in the Sunnyside area come back every year from the old stalk. I believe hops are even perennials - beer anyone?

Perhaps some commercial organic gardeners may be using heritage seeds.

The cows & goats will still give milk, the beef cattle can still be butchered, the chickens will still lay eggs, etc. etc. etc......anyone with agriculture in what ?100-200 miles will get some food - just not designer coffee beans, TV dinners, & gourmet juices.

Irrigation is another matter - arial sprinklers may have power problems, while ditches should still function.

.
 
Re: Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

I can't think of any biennial grain crops

but

Sugar beets (Beta vulgaris) is biennial used for sugar production and
livestock feed.
 
Re: Local Recovery After Pandemic: HOW?

Okay - 4-ABBA - there are sugar beets in E. Washington! BTW - if it freezes early they can't be dug out....experience talking.

.
 
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