Load Up the Pantry

[Snowy Owl]

Load Up the Pantry
Wall Street Journal
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB120881517227532621-lMyQjAxMDI4MDI4MjgyMTI1Wj.html​

I don't want to alarm anybody, but maybe it's time for Americans to start stockpiling food.

No, this is not a drill.

You've seen the TV footage of food riots in parts of the developing world. Yes, they're a long way away from the U.S.

But most foodstuffs operate in a global market. When the cost of wheat soars in Asia, it will do the same here.

Reality:

Food prices are already rising here much faster than the returns you are likely to get from keeping your money in a bank or money-market fund. And there are very good reasons to believe prices on the shelves are about to start rising a lot faster.

"Load up the pantry," says Manu Daftary, one of Wall Street's top investors and the manager of the Quaker Strategic Growth mutual fund. "I think prices are going higher. People are too complacent. They think it isn't going to happen here. But I don't know how the food companies can absorb higher costs." (Full disclosure: I am an investor in Quaker Strategic)

Stocking up on food may not replace your long-term investments, but it may make a sensible home for some of your shorter-term cash. Do the math. If you keep your standby cash in a money-market fund you'll be lucky to get a 2.5% interest rate. Even the best one-year certificate of deposit you can find is only going to pay you about 4.1%, according to Bankrate.com. And those yields are before tax.

Meanwhile the most recent government data shows food inflation for the average American household is now running at 4.5% a year.

And some prices are rising even more quickly. The latest data show cereal prices rising by more than 8% a year. Both flour and rice are up more than 13%. Milk, cheese, bananas and even peanut butter: They're all up by more than 10%. Eggs have rocketed up 30% in a year. Ground beef prices are up 4.8% and chicken by 5.4%.

These are trends that have been in place for some time.

And if you are hoping they will pass, here's the bad news: They may actually accelerate.

The reason? The prices of many underlying raw materials have risen much more quickly still. Wheat prices, for example, have roughly tripled in the past three years.

Sooner or later, the food companies are going to have to pass those costs on. Kraft saw its raw material costs soar by about $1.25 billion last year, squeezing profit margins. The company recently warned that higher prices are here to stay. Last month the chief executive of General Mills, Kendall Powell, made a similar point.

The main reason for rising prices, of course, is the surge in demand from China and India. Hundreds of millions of people are joining the middle class each year, and that means they want to eat more and better food.

A secondary reason has been the growing demand for ethanol as a fuel additive. That's soaking up some of the corn supply.

You can't easily stock up on perishables like eggs or milk. But other products will keep. Among them: Dried pasta, rice, cereals, and cans of everything from tuna fish to fruit and vegetables. The kicker: You should also save money by buying them in bulk.

If this seems a stretch, ponder this: The emerging bull market in agricultural products is following in the footsteps of oil. A few years ago, many Americans hoped $2 gas was a temporary spike. Now it's the rosy memory of a bygone age.

The good news is that it's easier to store Cap'n Crunch or cans of Starkist in your home than it is to store lots of gasoline. Safer, too.

 

[janetney]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

i just bought a 20 lb bag of Hinode rice for $18

 

[yielddude]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

Sam's Club:Limiting Customer Rice Purchases On Supply ConcernLast update: 4/23/2008 3:02:35 PMBENTONVILLE, Ark. (AP)--Sam's Club, the membership warehouse division of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), is limiting how much rice customers can buy because of what it calls "recent supply and demand trends." The broader chain of Wal-Mart stores has no plans to limit food purchases, however. Sam's Club says it will limit customers to four bags at a time of Jasmine, Basmati and long grain white rice. Rice prices have been hitting record highs recently on worries about tight supplies. Sam's Club's restriction is effective immediately at all locations where quantity restrictions are allowed by law. It does not apply to other staples such as flour or oil.

 

[Amish Country]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

I just picked up 25 lbs of enriched white rice for $12.95. Yes I would prefer brown organic rice but that is getting expensive and to "Load Up the Pantry" on a budget takes compromise and making some expectation adjustments. I'd rather be making these "adjustments" now while the resources are available at a somewhat affordable price.

 

[Gnosis]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

I have found it hard to purchase wheat here in So.Cal. (USA). After many calls I was able to buy 500 lbs. of hard white wheat and store it in 5 gal. buckets with oxygen absorbers. It will last 5 years or so. Wheat has tripled in price and is very hard to get. Rice is next and so forth. There will come a time that money won't matter. The product will not be available. Stock up now!

 

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

To make you feel better, the white rice will last significantly longer than the brown rice will. White rice isn't the most nutritious but it is filling.

My biggest worry at this point is chicken feed. The price has doubled since last year. Makes for very expensive eggs if I only use the commercial feed. As a result, my hens are out a lot more than they used to be. They are far happier but, it means I have to keep an alert eye out now most of the day. Not happy about my neighbors pit bull who is adept at jumping fences.

 

[Snowy Owl]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

Shannon maybe you remember or Laura might, I rememnber reading at excellent Prep Room of how to keep eggs. ??

Can get in but not post.

 

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

If you do not wash the eggs and keep them in a cool basement they will last for months. There is another method where you slip them into isinglass but, that sounds rather nasty as the eggs get very slimy and slippery on the outside. Still, they are said to last up to 11 months that way.

 

[Snowy Owl]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

Thank you Shannon

Snowy

 

[Amish Country]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

Hi Shannon

You are right I am going for stodge value with the rice.

My biggest worry at this point is chicken feed. The price has doubled since last year. Makes for very expensive eggs if I only use the commercial feed. As a result, my hens are out a lot more than they used to be. They are far happier but, it means I have to keep an alert eye out now most of the day. Not happy about my neighbors pit bull who is adept at jumping fences.

Also know the feeling with feed prices! We ordered a bunch of chicks and maybe two weeks later the price of feed took off. Perfect timing. Have you ever used a moveable pen? Another farmer in my area uses a mesh electric fence to keep her flock corralled. She keeps them in a coop built on a farm wagon. This way she can move the birds around her farm and no one area gets too trampled or polluted with manure. Are you stocking up on feed? Are you using commercial or mixing your own? Right now mine are on a starter mash that is supposed to contain no animal by products (etc.) I plan to get some cracked corn to help supplement their diet later on.

I do not think we will be too concerned about storing eggs. I think ours will be eaten long before storage becomes an issue. Right now I'm debating keeping some of the roosters or putting them all in the freezer. No roosters means no fertilized eggs but it also means no crowing.

 

[Snowy Owl]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

So your on your way to become a vegetarian AC ??

Snowy

 

[tropical]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

"Right now I'm debating keeping some of the roosters or putting them all in the freezer. No roosters means no fertilized eggs but it also means no crowing."

Don't do that AC.
Maybe we will wait another few years before the pandemic, or if it came now your manure can remain without electric energy. You can do this at the last moment.

 

[Amish Country]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

Hi Snowy & Topical

No I'm not planning on becoming a vegetarian. My family's old chicken soup recipe starts "First you catch the chicken...." The thing is the last time I raised chicks there was no Mad Cow, The genetic modification of corn and soy beans was science fiction and I never heard of anyone vaccinating their birds against anything. Flu was something we caught not them. On my family's farm the chickens were free range and very healthy. Things have change! :magnify:

The following does not give me a warm fuzzy feeling:
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90782/6398420.html

I'm concerned about the crowing because 1) it could annoy neighbors (hens cluck and cackle softly when they lay an egg. They do not need a rooster to lay.) 2) a crowing rooster advertises, "There is food here!" and I have yet to find a way to keep them quiet. Well... short of the use of a hatchet.

If the pandemic hits I plan to pressure can the meat not freeze it. That way it will last for a year or two and we will not have to worry about the power going out. We will also not have to worry about the birds giving the flu to us. If the pandemic does not hit for "four years" or more (May we be so blessed!) I plan to get more chicks for the table. I just really what to know what food being fed to them and how the animals that my family eats have been cared for.

Snowy for stored eggs? Have you considered dried powdered eggs? You can get whole or just the white. They store for about a year in a cool, dry, dark place and are not that expensive yet.


AC

 

[Snowy Owl]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

Thanks AC, we need all informations available and more concrete and practical for our international readers.

Snowy

 

[HappyCamper]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

To make you feel better, the white rice will last significantly longer than the brown rice will. White rice isn't the most nutritious but it is filling.

My biggest worry at this point is chicken feed. The price has doubled since last year. Makes for very expensive eggs if I only use the commercial feed. As a result, my hens are out a lot more than they used to be. They are far happier but, it means I have to keep an alert eye out now most of the day. Not happy about my neighbors pit bull who is adept at jumping fences.

My neighbor and I had chicken...A small flock of about 30. 2 dogs Came round once a week and thought it was fun to kill the chickens. They were digging 1 foot under the ground to get at them...We found the owners and told them what the dogs were doing and to please lock them up.

The very next day the dogs were back and well my neighbor told me we wouldn't have any more problems with the dogs. He told me: don't ask. My neigbor wasn't the kind of man that would call animal control...

 

[tropical]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

They were digging 1 foot under the ground to get at them...
The very next day the dogs were back...
__________________
3 Generators may just be enough, now if I only had gas...Life would be good.

Hi HappyCamper,

with such a neighb. and the many poultry virus strains I suggest you to translate the chickens in an solid walls roofed space with min. 2 ventilated neted windows - the dogs will be ousted, and the chicks separated from wild birds.
__
For the gas question if you are nearby natural running water, install a turbo-gen system (free uninterupted energy source)

 

[tropical]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

AC, you can't said better!
:applause:
"The thing is the last time I raised chicks there was no Mad Cow, The genetic modification of corn and soy beans was science fiction and I never heard of anyone vaccinating their birds against anything. Flu was something we caught not them. On my family's farm the chickens were free range and very healthy. Things have change!"

 

[HappyCamper]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

"Right now I'm debating keeping some of the roosters or putting them all in the freezer. No roosters means no fertilized eggs but it also means no crowing."

Don't do that AC.
Maybe we will wait another few years before the pandemic, or if it came now your manure can remain without electric energy. You can do this at the last moment.

If you decide to off your rooster they're easy enough to get. I see them posted all the time on freecycle.com, or just go to any local farm.

More then one rooster (because the fight all the time) can cause havoc in your flock, so people give them away. You can have your peace and quite and when it's time just get another rooster.

Most of the times we didn't have a rooster. They were nasty to the kids. When it was time to replenish the flock we'd get one from the local farm. He was always glad to get rid of a rooster. Also to many roosters can stop egg production because the hens are stressed by being jumped on all the time.

Another way to supplement your hens food is left overs. I know it sound gross but hens love left overs...All sort of left overs including cooked Chicken. Sound sick I know but, if you've ever dropped an egg in the chicken coupe you'd know what I'm talking about...

One day I went into my neighbors chicken coop and I thought a hen had died. There was a chicken carcass in there coupe. My neighbors laughed because it was last night dinner. They had chicken...They thru the carcass into the chicken coupe and the hens picked the meat so clean I thought a chicken had died. I know it's funny but it will save you money on your chicken feed. Veggie, potato's you name it they eat it.

Watch your flowers, and don't leave the garden door open... :tiphat:

 

[HappyCamper]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

Hi HappyCamper,

with such a neighb. and the many poultry virus strains I suggest you to translate the chickens in an solid walls roofed space with min. 2 ventilated neted windows - the dogs will be ousted, and the chicks separated from wild birds.
__
For the gas question if you are nearby natural running water, install a turbo-gen system (free uninterupted energy source)

Sorry for the missunderstand we no longer have chikens. We had them for 11 years and although eggs from the store are tasteless, it was much cheaper to buy eggs then raise chicken for the eggs. I miss fresh eggs so much.

I don't miss the flies from the dropping from the chicken. The cleaning the coupe. The winterizing the coupe. The critters (raccoon, possum, fox, and dogs trying to get into the cage at night. I don't miss cleaning the eggs, the expense of the feed, and getting someone to care for them when we wanted to go away on vacation.

 

[tropical]

Re: Load Up the Pantry

Thanks HappyCamper,

No raising, I rely only on agro-caged poultry if eating.

Like you said, raising include many things ...
BTW, on the chicken menu can be landed mouses too (we discuss that in one FT thread).

Summing that, and the reality about the changed times, the possibility of switching veg. is not so bad.