http://www.nextgenenergy.org/
This is a 36 page .pdf analysis of the threat of major blackouts facing the U.S., what is needed to maintain the grid reliability through 2016 and the major barriers to keeping the lights on.
Summary of their findings:
* The costs of new generation differ significantly by energy source and the
costs of renewable generation options may be five or six times the cost of some fossil fuel options.
* Transmission line costs per-mile are very difficult to estimate and can differ
by a factor of 30 or more, depending on a host of technical and geographicfactors.
* On the basis of NERC data and forecasts, we estimate that the U.S. will
require nearly 120 GW of new capacity by 2016. Using EIA generation cost
estimates, we estimate that this new capacity will cost about $250 billion toinstall.
* On the basis of NERC data and forecasts, we estimate that the U.S. will
require more than 14,500 miles of new transmission lines by 2016, with nearly
half being required in the WECC region (Western U.S.).
* On the basis of transmission cost estimates available in the literature and
data from EEI, we estimate that the cost of this transmission will total approximately $80 billion.
* We estimate that total U.S. new generation and transmission (G&T)
costs through 2016 will total about 1/3 trillion dollars.
However, this estimate of future costs may be low because:
• The costs of all energy projects, including generation and transmission,
have been rising and may exceed current estimates.
• Our estimates only provide for a 15 percent capacity margin in 2016 – the
minimum required. If a higher margin is desired, the costs will be significantlygreater.
• The estimates do not include generation and transmission costs beyond 2016, since this is
the last year of the current NERC forecast. It is already apparent that substantial generation and
transmission costs will be necessary after 2016.
• State renewable portfolio standard (RPS) mandates may significantly
increase generation and transmission costs, since renewables are more
expensive than alternatives and require extensive transmission.29 California is
currently considering mandating an RPS of 33 percent by 2020, and a number of
other states are also pursuing aggressive RPS initiatives.
• The next annual NERC report is scheduled for release in October 2008, and the
estimates derived here can be revised on the basis of more recent data.
This is a 36 page .pdf analysis of the threat of major blackouts facing the U.S., what is needed to maintain the grid reliability through 2016 and the major barriers to keeping the lights on.
Summary of their findings:
* The costs of new generation differ significantly by energy source and the
costs of renewable generation options may be five or six times the cost of some fossil fuel options.
* Transmission line costs per-mile are very difficult to estimate and can differ
by a factor of 30 or more, depending on a host of technical and geographicfactors.
* On the basis of NERC data and forecasts, we estimate that the U.S. will
require nearly 120 GW of new capacity by 2016. Using EIA generation cost
estimates, we estimate that this new capacity will cost about $250 billion toinstall.
* On the basis of NERC data and forecasts, we estimate that the U.S. will
require more than 14,500 miles of new transmission lines by 2016, with nearly
half being required in the WECC region (Western U.S.).
* On the basis of transmission cost estimates available in the literature and
data from EEI, we estimate that the cost of this transmission will total approximately $80 billion.
* We estimate that total U.S. new generation and transmission (G&T)
costs through 2016 will total about 1/3 trillion dollars.
However, this estimate of future costs may be low because:
• The costs of all energy projects, including generation and transmission,
have been rising and may exceed current estimates.
• Our estimates only provide for a 15 percent capacity margin in 2016 – the
minimum required. If a higher margin is desired, the costs will be significantlygreater.
• The estimates do not include generation and transmission costs beyond 2016, since this is
the last year of the current NERC forecast. It is already apparent that substantial generation and
transmission costs will be necessary after 2016.
• State renewable portfolio standard (RPS) mandates may significantly
increase generation and transmission costs, since renewables are more
expensive than alternatives and require extensive transmission.29 California is
currently considering mandating an RPS of 33 percent by 2020, and a number of
other states are also pursuing aggressive RPS initiatives.
• The next annual NERC report is scheduled for release in October 2008, and the
estimates derived here can be revised on the basis of more recent data.
