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Levitt, latest

Shannon Bennett

Shannon Bennett

Well-known member
http://framehosting.dowjonesnews.com/sample/samplestory.asp?StoryID=2006050718140000&Take=1


<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=10 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=TakeTime vAlign=top>7 May 2006 18:14 GMT DJ Health Secy Leavitt: US 'Overdue' For Pandemic</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=right>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD>[FONT=Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Copyright ? 2006, Dow Jones Newswires[/FONT]</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>[FONT=Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt said Sunday on CNN's "Late Edition" that the U.S. is overdue for a pandemic, saying that communities have to take steps in case the bird flu becomes a crisis.

"We're overdue for a pandemic, but we're underprepared. And we're working on every front at this moment to prepare for an event of that type," Leavitt said.

He said it wouldn't be a "big surprise if we saw the (H5N1 bird flu virus) in the next few months."

He noted that for it to be a pandemic, it would have to be transmitted efficiently through human-to-human contact. Right now, humans appear to contract it only from birds.

He said a modern pandemic could lead to the deaths of up to 2 million people in the U.S.

He also said the federal government would be unable to assist each community in the nation if there was an outbreak, and communties must prepare their own responses. (END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 07, 2006 14:14 ET (18:14 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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Re: Levitt, latest

>[FONT=Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] Leavitt said.

He said it wouldn't be a "big surprise if we saw the (H5N1 bird flu virus) in the next few months."

GR: Leavitt has said this now for what??? 6 months? Maybe longer?
So, months go by and the message remains the same.

As people become conscious of the risk, they look up and they see Leavitt saying, "[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] ...it wouldn't be a "big surprise if we saw the (H5N1 bird flu virus) in the next few months." [/FONT]
 
Re: Levitt, latest

Gaudia, the messages continue to be up one day and down the next. That in a nutshell is what we are facing. No one anywhere really knows when or even if this will explode. And furthermore no one who is credible knows when/if it does it will stay at a 75% fatality rate or drop precipitously. What we do know is this.
Pandemics happen. We are overdue considering there are are typically three per century. (10 in one hundred years, info courtesy of Taubenburger)
The virus has already passed the first of two/three huge hurdles, it can infect humans already directly. This was considered to be one of two immense stumbling blocks. The other is the ability to pass h2h with infections occurring in the upper respiratory tract and the third which is actually a given is a liking for reduced temps. It came as a very nasty surprise indeed when Taubenberger discovered the 1918 pandemic was due to a direct mutation from birds to humans. No animal intermediaries equaled a whole new paradigm.
The range of sick birds is spreading around the world. Again, the more sick birds there are the higher the number of accidental infections in animals that are not birds. More mammals more mutations possible.
The more human hosts the more chances for bf to make the ones needed for h2h. Couple that with the move into places where HIV is prevalent and the subsequent 6 month active infection and you have a recipe for significant mutation and a liking for humans.
The dice are rolling and sooner or later we get Yahtzee. The only real questions are do we get a worst case scenario and when does the monster unleash itself. Will it be 5 snake-eyes or will it be 5 sixes? Will it be next month or in 8 years? Only God knows and she isn't leaking the information merely hinting at the time.
 
Re: Levitt, latest

His first prediction was for the end of April and we're not too far past that... but Alaska Denise can tell tou the wheatear (northern wheatear, maybe) comes from Turkey, I think, to her part of Alaska in May... if I remember correctly.

Leavitt is guessing on the migratory and infection cycle. He also may not be taking into account that the baby birds are kinda in quarantine right now as they hatch and do the nestling thing. It's when the fledge that they may infect each other.

Leavitt is keeping birdflu in birds on folk's radar screens. I think for avian flu in birds, that's a good thing.

I'm more concerned about birdflu in humans that goes human to human to human...

Have an interesting time at the movies. (popcorn popping)
 
Re: Levitt, latest

LOL... I will be watching the movie... popcorn and a cool beverage in hand....

Critical review and analysis is needed to understand the risks vs. gain of this movie.

I would like to also hear and review other peoples individual comments after they watch it and compare it to the facts they have assimiliated.
 
Re: Levitt, latest

Mellie, I remember the thread where we discussed the semi-isolation of nesting birds. But, I am not sure I would agree this was his rationale for the prognostication. Although I admit I could be wrong here. He is more interested in the business end then he appears to be with saving humans. To put it the other way around, his view is we all go down if business fails. It is what keeps America going and keeping people at work is paramount.

And I agree with the discussion following the film. Popcorn anyone?
 
Re: Levitt, latest

Right on about the business end. He's not an ornitholiogist...

He and his family are prepped for a fairly long time, though... Watch what they do...

Movie calls...
 
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