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The 2006/07 cropping season was characterized by one of the most severe droughts of the last 30 years. The amount of rainfall in the critical months of January-March was well below normal, and temperatures were higher than the long term average.
Average yields per hectare of maize and sorghum for the 2006/07 cropping season are estimated to have decreased dramatically by 42 percent and 25 percent respectively, as compared to the previous year. Furthermore, the decrease in area planted to these cereals in 2006/07, as compared to the last cropping season, was 15 and 20 percent down, respectively, compared to the last 5-years average.
2007 national cereal production is estimated at about 72 000 tonnes, which represents a drop of 42 percent from 2006, and 40 percent from the average of the previous 5-years. Maize production (50 825 tonnes) decreased by 51 percent, sorghum (11 182 tonnes) by 42 percent, and summer wheat (5 411 tonnes) by 4 percent compared to last year. A provisional forecast amount of 5 000 tonnes of winter wheat is also included.
Cereal import requirements for the 2007/08 marketing year (April/March) are estimated at about 256 000 tonnes, of which 219 000 tonnes are expected to be imported commercially. With food aid stocks and pipeline at 7 000 tonnes as of 1 April 2007, there remains an uncovered deficit of around 30 000 tonnes which needs to be covered by additional government and/or international assistance.
Many households have exhausted their coping capacity, and the escalation of grain prices, due to domestic shortages and rising maize prices in South Africa (the main supplier in the region), will further limit the access to market supplies by landless and urban populations, and deepen food insecurity.
The worsening HIV/AIDS pandemic is undermining the economic resource base. In rural/agricultural areas, a visible lack of labour is observed, which may explain why some fields are left idle.
The current situation is particularly serious for the poorest strata of the population. Crop failure not only reduces food supplies, it also reduces casual labour opportunities and thus, income earning opportunities to procure food from markets.
The Mission estimates that about 401 200 vulnerable people face food insecurity during the 2007/08 marketing year, and will require approximately 30 000 tonnes of cereals and 6 700 tonnes of other foods, or equivalent in cash, to meet their minimum food consumption needs.
Timely support is also needed with agricultural inputs, including seeds, fertilizers, and credit facilities, to rehabilitate production capacity for the 2007/08 cropping season.