tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Lancet Reg Health Eur
. 2021 Jul 30;100185.
doi: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185. Online ahead of print.
A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation
Emil Nafis Iftekhar[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Viola Priesemann[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Rudi Balling[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Simon Bauer[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Philippe Beutels[SUP] 3 [/SUP], André Calero Valdez[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Sarah Cuschieri[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Thomas Czypionka[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Uga Dumpis[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Enrico Glaab[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Eva Grill[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Claudia Hanson[SUP] 9 [/SUP], Pirta Hotulainen[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Peter Klimek[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Mirjam Kretzschmar[SUP] 12 [/SUP], Tyll Krüger[SUP] 13 [/SUP], Jenny Krutzinna[SUP] 14 [/SUP], Nicola Low[SUP] 15 [/SUP], Helena Machado[SUP] 16 [/SUP], Carlos Martins[SUP] 17 [/SUP], Martin McKee[SUP] 18 [/SUP], Sebastian Bernd Mohr[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Armin Nassehi[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Matjaž Perc[SUP] 19 [/SUP], Elena Petelos[SUP] 20 [/SUP], Martyn Pickersgill[SUP] 21 [/SUP], Barbara Prainsack[SUP] 22 [/SUP], Joacim Rocklöv[SUP] 23 [/SUP], Eva Schernhammer[SUP] 24 [/SUP], Anthony Staines[SUP] 25 [/SUP], Ewa Szczurek[SUP] 26 [/SUP], Sotirios Tsiodras[SUP] 27 [/SUP], Steven Van Gucht[SUP] 28 [/SUP], Peter Willeit[SUP] 29 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Keywords: COVID-19; Delphi study; Europe; SARS-CoV-2; expert survey; group forecast; non-pharmaceutical interventions; policy advice; variants of concern.
. 2021 Jul 30;100185.
doi: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185. Online ahead of print.
A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation
Emil Nafis Iftekhar[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Viola Priesemann[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Rudi Balling[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Simon Bauer[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Philippe Beutels[SUP] 3 [/SUP], André Calero Valdez[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Sarah Cuschieri[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Thomas Czypionka[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Uga Dumpis[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Enrico Glaab[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Eva Grill[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Claudia Hanson[SUP] 9 [/SUP], Pirta Hotulainen[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Peter Klimek[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Mirjam Kretzschmar[SUP] 12 [/SUP], Tyll Krüger[SUP] 13 [/SUP], Jenny Krutzinna[SUP] 14 [/SUP], Nicola Low[SUP] 15 [/SUP], Helena Machado[SUP] 16 [/SUP], Carlos Martins[SUP] 17 [/SUP], Martin McKee[SUP] 18 [/SUP], Sebastian Bernd Mohr[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Armin Nassehi[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Matjaž Perc[SUP] 19 [/SUP], Elena Petelos[SUP] 20 [/SUP], Martyn Pickersgill[SUP] 21 [/SUP], Barbara Prainsack[SUP] 22 [/SUP], Joacim Rocklöv[SUP] 23 [/SUP], Eva Schernhammer[SUP] 24 [/SUP], Anthony Staines[SUP] 25 [/SUP], Ewa Szczurek[SUP] 26 [/SUP], Sotirios Tsiodras[SUP] 27 [/SUP], Steven Van Gucht[SUP] 28 [/SUP], Peter Willeit[SUP] 29 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34345876
- PMCID: PMC8321710
- DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185
Abstract
How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Keywords: COVID-19; Delphi study; Europe; SARS-CoV-2; expert survey; group forecast; non-pharmaceutical interventions; policy advice; variants of concern.