tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Lancet Infect Dis
. 2020 Oct 19;S1473-3099(20)30769-6.
doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30769-6. Online ahead of print.
Estimating the infection-fatality risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City during the spring 2020 pandemic wave: a model-based analysis
Wan Yang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Sasikiran Kandula[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Mary Huynh[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Sharon K Greene[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Gretchen Van Wye[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Wenhui Li[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Hiu Tai Chan[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Emily McGibbon[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Alice Yeung[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Don Olson[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Anne Fine[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Jeffrey Shaman[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to unfold, the infection-fatality risk (ie, risk of death among all infected individuals including those with asymptomatic and mild infections) is crucial for gauging the burden of death due to COVID-19 in the coming months or years. Here, we estimate the infection-fatality risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in New York City, NY, USA, the first epidemic centre in the USA, where the infection-fatality risk remains unclear.
Methods: In this model-based analysis, we developed a meta-population network model-inference system to estimate the underlying SARS-CoV-2 infection rate in New York City during the 2020 spring pandemic wave using available case, mortality, and mobility data. Based on these estimates, we further estimated the infection-fatality risk for all ages overall and for five age groups (<25, 25-44, 45-64, 65-74, and ≥75 years) separately, during the period March 1 to June 6, 2020 (ie, before the city began a phased reopening).
Findings: During the period March 1 to June 6, 2020, 205 639 people had a laboratory-confirmed infection with SARS-CoV-2 and 21 447 confirmed and probable COVID-19-related deaths occurred among residents of New York City. We estimated an overall infection-fatality risk of 1?39% (95% credible interval 1?04-1?77) in New York City. Our estimated infection-fatality risk for the two oldest age groups (65-74 and ≥75 years) was much higher than the younger age groups, with a cumulative estimated infection-fatality risk of 0?116% (0?0729-0?148) for those aged 25-44 years and 0?939% (0?729-1?19) for those aged 45-64 years versus 4?87% (3?37-6?89) for those aged 65-74 years and 14?2% (10?2-18?1) for those aged 75 years and older. In particular, weekly infection-fatality risk was estimated to be as high as 6?72% (5?52-8?01) for those aged 65-74 years and 19?1% (14?7-21?9) for those aged 75 years and older.
Interpretation: Our results are based on more complete ascertainment of COVID-19-related deaths in New York City than other places and thus probably reflect the true higher burden of death due to COVID-19 than that previously reported elsewhere. Given the high infection-fatality risk of SARS-CoV-2, governments must account for and closely monitor the infection rate and population health outcomes and enact prompt public health responses accordingly as the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds.
Funding: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Science Foundation Rapid Response Research Program, and New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene.
. 2020 Oct 19;S1473-3099(20)30769-6.
doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30769-6. Online ahead of print.
Estimating the infection-fatality risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City during the spring 2020 pandemic wave: a model-based analysis
Wan Yang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Sasikiran Kandula[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Mary Huynh[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Sharon K Greene[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Gretchen Van Wye[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Wenhui Li[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Hiu Tai Chan[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Emily McGibbon[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Alice Yeung[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Don Olson[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Anne Fine[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Jeffrey Shaman[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33091374
- PMCID: PMC7572090
- DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30769-6
Abstract
Background: As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to unfold, the infection-fatality risk (ie, risk of death among all infected individuals including those with asymptomatic and mild infections) is crucial for gauging the burden of death due to COVID-19 in the coming months or years. Here, we estimate the infection-fatality risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in New York City, NY, USA, the first epidemic centre in the USA, where the infection-fatality risk remains unclear.
Methods: In this model-based analysis, we developed a meta-population network model-inference system to estimate the underlying SARS-CoV-2 infection rate in New York City during the 2020 spring pandemic wave using available case, mortality, and mobility data. Based on these estimates, we further estimated the infection-fatality risk for all ages overall and for five age groups (<25, 25-44, 45-64, 65-74, and ≥75 years) separately, during the period March 1 to June 6, 2020 (ie, before the city began a phased reopening).
Findings: During the period March 1 to June 6, 2020, 205 639 people had a laboratory-confirmed infection with SARS-CoV-2 and 21 447 confirmed and probable COVID-19-related deaths occurred among residents of New York City. We estimated an overall infection-fatality risk of 1?39% (95% credible interval 1?04-1?77) in New York City. Our estimated infection-fatality risk for the two oldest age groups (65-74 and ≥75 years) was much higher than the younger age groups, with a cumulative estimated infection-fatality risk of 0?116% (0?0729-0?148) for those aged 25-44 years and 0?939% (0?729-1?19) for those aged 45-64 years versus 4?87% (3?37-6?89) for those aged 65-74 years and 14?2% (10?2-18?1) for those aged 75 years and older. In particular, weekly infection-fatality risk was estimated to be as high as 6?72% (5?52-8?01) for those aged 65-74 years and 19?1% (14?7-21?9) for those aged 75 years and older.
Interpretation: Our results are based on more complete ascertainment of COVID-19-related deaths in New York City than other places and thus probably reflect the true higher burden of death due to COVID-19 than that previously reported elsewhere. Given the high infection-fatality risk of SARS-CoV-2, governments must account for and closely monitor the infection rate and population health outcomes and enact prompt public health responses accordingly as the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds.
Funding: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Science Foundation Rapid Response Research Program, and New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene.