tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Media coverage and hospital notifications: Correlation analysis and optimal media impact duration to manage a pandemic
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doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.11.002 Get rights and content
Highlights
• We develop functional relationships between the media impact and intensity of mass media coverage.
• The multiple correlation analyses show the strong relations between mass media and H1N1 outbreak .
• Nonlinear least squares estimation to identify the best-fit parameter values from the observed data.
• Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses determine key parameters during early phase of disease outbreak.
• Main results show that media publicity should be focused on how to guide people׳s behavioral changes.
Abstract
News reporting has the potential to modify a community׳s knowledge of emerging infectious diseases and affect peoples’ attitudes and behavior. Here we developed a quantitative approach to evaluate the effects of media on such behavior. Statistically significant correlations between the number of new hospital notifications, during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza epidemic in the Shaanxi province of China, and the number of daily news items added to eight major websites were found from Pearson correlation and cross-correlation analyses. We also proposed a novel model to examine the implication for transmission dynamics of these correlations. The model incorporated the media impact function into the intensity of infection, and enhanced the traditional epidemic SEIR model with the addition of media dynamics. We used a nonlinear least squares estimation to identify the best-fit parameter values in the model from the observed data. We also carried out the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to determine key parameters during early phase of the disease outbreak for the final outcome of the outbreak with media impact. The findings confirm the importance of responses by individuals to the media reports, with behavior changes having important consequence for the emerging infectious disease control. Therefore, for mitigating emerging infectious diseases, media reports should be focused on how to guide people׳s behavioral changes, which are critical for limiting the spread of disease.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...22519315005366
- Qinling Yan[SUP]a[/SUP],
- Sanyi Tang[SUP]a[/SUP][SUP], [/SUP][SUP], [/SUP][SUP], [/SUP],
- Sandra Gabriele[SUP]b[/SUP],
- Jianhong Wu[SUP]c[/SUP]
Show more
doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.11.002 Get rights and content
Highlights
• We develop functional relationships between the media impact and intensity of mass media coverage.
• The multiple correlation analyses show the strong relations between mass media and H1N1 outbreak .
• Nonlinear least squares estimation to identify the best-fit parameter values from the observed data.
• Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses determine key parameters during early phase of disease outbreak.
• Main results show that media publicity should be focused on how to guide people׳s behavioral changes.
Abstract
News reporting has the potential to modify a community׳s knowledge of emerging infectious diseases and affect peoples’ attitudes and behavior. Here we developed a quantitative approach to evaluate the effects of media on such behavior. Statistically significant correlations between the number of new hospital notifications, during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza epidemic in the Shaanxi province of China, and the number of daily news items added to eight major websites were found from Pearson correlation and cross-correlation analyses. We also proposed a novel model to examine the implication for transmission dynamics of these correlations. The model incorporated the media impact function into the intensity of infection, and enhanced the traditional epidemic SEIR model with the addition of media dynamics. We used a nonlinear least squares estimation to identify the best-fit parameter values in the model from the observed data. We also carried out the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to determine key parameters during early phase of the disease outbreak for the final outcome of the outbreak with media impact. The findings confirm the importance of responses by individuals to the media reports, with behavior changes having important consequence for the emerging infectious disease control. Therefore, for mitigating emerging infectious diseases, media reports should be focused on how to guide people׳s behavioral changes, which are critical for limiting the spread of disease.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...22519315005366