tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
JMIR Public Health Surveill
. 2020 Oct 24.
doi: 10.2196/20495. Online ahead of print.
Average temperature and relative humidity and domestic new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in nine Asian cities: A time-series analysis
Zonglin He[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Yiqiao Chin[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Shinning Yu[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Jian Huang[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Casper J P Zhang[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Ke Zhu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Nima Azarakhsh[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Jie Sheng[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Yi He[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Pallavi Jayavanth[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Qian Liu[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Babatunde O Akinwunmi[SUP] 9 [/SUP], Wai-Kit Ming[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: The influence of meteorological factors on the transmission and spread of COVID-19 is of interest and has not been elucidated.
Objective: To investigate the associations of meteorological factors and the daily new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in nine Asian cities.
Methods: Pearson's correlation and generalized additive modeling (GAM) were performed to assess the relationships between daily new COVID-19 cases and meteorological factors (daily average temperature and relative humidity) with the most updated data currently available.
Results: The Pearson correlation showed that daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 were more correlated with the average temperature than with relative humidity. Daily new confirmed cases were negatively correlated with the average temperature in Beijing (r=.565, P<.01), Shanghai (r=-.471, P<.01), and Guangzhou (r=-.530, P<.01) , yet in contrast, positively correlated with that in Japan (r=.441, P<.01). In most of the cities (Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Seoul, Tokyo, and Kuala Lumpur), generalized additive modeling analysis showed the number of daily new confirmed cases was positively associated with both average temperature and relative humidity, especially in lagged 3d model, where a positive influence of temperature on the daily new confirmed cases was discerned in 5 cities except in Beijing, Wuhan, Korea, and Malaysia. Moreover, sensitivity analysis by incorporating the city grade and public health measures into the model showed that high temperature can increase the daily new cases (Beta=0.073, Z=11.594, P<0.001) in lagged 3d model.
Conclusions: With increased temperature, the daily new cases of COVID-19 increases. Large-scale public health measures and expanded regional research are still required until a vaccine becomes available and herd immunity is established.
. 2020 Oct 24.
doi: 10.2196/20495. Online ahead of print.
Average temperature and relative humidity and domestic new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in nine Asian cities: A time-series analysis
Zonglin He[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Yiqiao Chin[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Shinning Yu[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Jian Huang[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Casper J P Zhang[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Ke Zhu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Nima Azarakhsh[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Jie Sheng[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Yi He[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Pallavi Jayavanth[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Qian Liu[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Babatunde O Akinwunmi[SUP] 9 [/SUP], Wai-Kit Ming[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33232262
- DOI: 10.2196/20495
Abstract
Background: The influence of meteorological factors on the transmission and spread of COVID-19 is of interest and has not been elucidated.
Objective: To investigate the associations of meteorological factors and the daily new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in nine Asian cities.
Methods: Pearson's correlation and generalized additive modeling (GAM) were performed to assess the relationships between daily new COVID-19 cases and meteorological factors (daily average temperature and relative humidity) with the most updated data currently available.
Results: The Pearson correlation showed that daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 were more correlated with the average temperature than with relative humidity. Daily new confirmed cases were negatively correlated with the average temperature in Beijing (r=.565, P<.01), Shanghai (r=-.471, P<.01), and Guangzhou (r=-.530, P<.01) , yet in contrast, positively correlated with that in Japan (r=.441, P<.01). In most of the cities (Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Seoul, Tokyo, and Kuala Lumpur), generalized additive modeling analysis showed the number of daily new confirmed cases was positively associated with both average temperature and relative humidity, especially in lagged 3d model, where a positive influence of temperature on the daily new confirmed cases was discerned in 5 cities except in Beijing, Wuhan, Korea, and Malaysia. Moreover, sensitivity analysis by incorporating the city grade and public health measures into the model showed that high temperature can increase the daily new cases (Beta=0.073, Z=11.594, P<0.001) in lagged 3d model.
Conclusions: With increased temperature, the daily new cases of COVID-19 increases. Large-scale public health measures and expanded regional research are still required until a vaccine becomes available and herd immunity is established.