tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Med Virol
. 2022 Apr 14.
doi: 10.1002/jmv.27783. Online ahead of print.
Vaccination strategy for preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the limited supply condition: a mathematical modelling study
Yi-Fan Lin[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yuwei Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Qibin Duan[SUP] 2 3 [/SUP], Hao Lei[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Dechao Tian[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Shenglan Xiao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yawen Jiang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Caijun Sun[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xiangjun Du[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yuelong Shu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Huachun Zou[SUP] 1 5 6 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Introduction: To mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission, eight vaccines have been urgently approved. With their limited availability, it is critical to distribute the vaccines reasonably.
Methods: We simulated the SARS-CoV-2 transmission for 365 days over four intervention periods: free transmission, structural mitigation, personal mitigation, and vaccination. Sensitivity analyses were performed to obtain the robust results. We further evaluated two proposed vaccination allocations, including one-dose-high-coverage and two-doses-low-coverage, when the supply was low.
Results: The infected rate (in 10 million people) reduced from 2.68 to 2.36 and 33.35% and 40.54% confirmed cases can be avoided as the nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) adherence rate rose from 50% to 70%. As the vaccination coverage reached 60% and 80%, the total infections can be reduced by about 32.72% and 41.19%, compared to the number without vaccination. When the duration of immunity was 90 and 120 days, the infected rate was 2.67 and 2.38. As asymptomatic infection rate rose from 30% to 50%, the infected rate was 1.92 (standard deviation [SD], 0.16) times higher. Condistion on 70% adherence rate, with the same amount of limited available vaccines, the 20% and 40% vaccination coverage of one-dose-high-coverage, the infected rate were 2.70 and 2.35; corresponding to the two-doses-low-coverage with 10% and 20% vaccination coverage, the number of infections were 3.22and 2.92. Our results indicated as the duration of immunity prolonged, the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 will be delayed and the scale will be declined. On average, the total infections in two-doses-low-coverage was 1.48 times (SD, 0.24) higher than that in one-dose-high-coverage.
Conclusion: It is crucial to encourage people to vaccinate in establishing immune barriers. Especially, when the supply is limit, a wiser strategy to restrict the SARS-CoV-2 transmission is equally distributing doses to the same amounts of individuals. Despite vaccination, it still needs NPIs to prevent widespread outbreaks. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19); Non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI); Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Stochastic dynamic model; Vaccination.
. 2022 Apr 14.
doi: 10.1002/jmv.27783. Online ahead of print.
Vaccination strategy for preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the limited supply condition: a mathematical modelling study
Yi-Fan Lin[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yuwei Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Qibin Duan[SUP] 2 3 [/SUP], Hao Lei[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Dechao Tian[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Shenglan Xiao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yawen Jiang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Caijun Sun[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xiangjun Du[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yuelong Shu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Huachun Zou[SUP] 1 5 6 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35426142
- DOI: 10.1002/jmv.27783
Abstract
Introduction: To mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission, eight vaccines have been urgently approved. With their limited availability, it is critical to distribute the vaccines reasonably.
Methods: We simulated the SARS-CoV-2 transmission for 365 days over four intervention periods: free transmission, structural mitigation, personal mitigation, and vaccination. Sensitivity analyses were performed to obtain the robust results. We further evaluated two proposed vaccination allocations, including one-dose-high-coverage and two-doses-low-coverage, when the supply was low.
Results: The infected rate (in 10 million people) reduced from 2.68 to 2.36 and 33.35% and 40.54% confirmed cases can be avoided as the nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) adherence rate rose from 50% to 70%. As the vaccination coverage reached 60% and 80%, the total infections can be reduced by about 32.72% and 41.19%, compared to the number without vaccination. When the duration of immunity was 90 and 120 days, the infected rate was 2.67 and 2.38. As asymptomatic infection rate rose from 30% to 50%, the infected rate was 1.92 (standard deviation [SD], 0.16) times higher. Condistion on 70% adherence rate, with the same amount of limited available vaccines, the 20% and 40% vaccination coverage of one-dose-high-coverage, the infected rate were 2.70 and 2.35; corresponding to the two-doses-low-coverage with 10% and 20% vaccination coverage, the number of infections were 3.22and 2.92. Our results indicated as the duration of immunity prolonged, the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 will be delayed and the scale will be declined. On average, the total infections in two-doses-low-coverage was 1.48 times (SD, 0.24) higher than that in one-dose-high-coverage.
Conclusion: It is crucial to encourage people to vaccinate in establishing immune barriers. Especially, when the supply is limit, a wiser strategy to restrict the SARS-CoV-2 transmission is equally distributing doses to the same amounts of individuals. Despite vaccination, it still needs NPIs to prevent widespread outbreaks. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19); Non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI); Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Stochastic dynamic model; Vaccination.