tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Med Virol. 2020 Apr 3. doi: 10.1002/jmv.25827. [Epub ahead of print]
The effectiveness of the quarantine of Wuhan city against the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): well-mixed SEIR model analysis.
Hou C[SUP]1[/SUP], Chen J[SUP]1[/SUP], Zhou Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Hua L[SUP]1[/SUP], Yuan J[SUP]1[/SUP], He S[SUP]1[/SUP], Guo Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Zhang S[SUP]1[/SUP], Jia Q[SUP]1[/SUP], Zhao C[SUP]1[/SUP], Zhang J[SUP]1[/SUP], Xu G[SUP]2[/SUP], Jia E[SUP]1[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
BACKGROUND:
A novel coronavirus pneumonia, first identified in Wuhan City and referred to as COVID-19 by the World Health Organization, has been quickly spreading to other cities and countries. To control the epidemic, the Chinese government mandated a quarantine of the Wuhan city on January 23, 2020. To explore the effectiveness of the quarantine of the Wuhan city against this epidemic, transmission dynamics of COVID-19 have been estimated.
METHODS:
A well-mixed "susceptible exposed infectious recovered" (SEIR) compartmental model was employed to describe the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic based on epidemiological characteristics of individuals, clinical progression of COVID-19, and quarantine intervention measures of the authority.
RESULTS:
Considering infected individuals as contagious during the latency period, the well-mixed SEIR model fitting results based on the assumed contact rate of latent individuals are within 6-18, which represented the possible impact of quarantine and isolation interventions on disease infections, whereas other parameter were suppose as unchanged under the current intervention.
CONCLUSION:
The present study shows that, by reducing the contact rate of latent individuals, interventions such as quarantine and isolation can effectively reduce the potential peak number of COVID-19 infections and delay the time of peak infection. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
KEYWORDS:
COVID-19; SEIR compartmental model; contact rate; latent individuals
PMID:32243599DOI:10.1002/jmv.25827
The effectiveness of the quarantine of Wuhan city against the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): well-mixed SEIR model analysis.
Hou C[SUP]1[/SUP], Chen J[SUP]1[/SUP], Zhou Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Hua L[SUP]1[/SUP], Yuan J[SUP]1[/SUP], He S[SUP]1[/SUP], Guo Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Zhang S[SUP]1[/SUP], Jia Q[SUP]1[/SUP], Zhao C[SUP]1[/SUP], Zhang J[SUP]1[/SUP], Xu G[SUP]2[/SUP], Jia E[SUP]1[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
BACKGROUND:
A novel coronavirus pneumonia, first identified in Wuhan City and referred to as COVID-19 by the World Health Organization, has been quickly spreading to other cities and countries. To control the epidemic, the Chinese government mandated a quarantine of the Wuhan city on January 23, 2020. To explore the effectiveness of the quarantine of the Wuhan city against this epidemic, transmission dynamics of COVID-19 have been estimated.
METHODS:
A well-mixed "susceptible exposed infectious recovered" (SEIR) compartmental model was employed to describe the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic based on epidemiological characteristics of individuals, clinical progression of COVID-19, and quarantine intervention measures of the authority.
RESULTS:
Considering infected individuals as contagious during the latency period, the well-mixed SEIR model fitting results based on the assumed contact rate of latent individuals are within 6-18, which represented the possible impact of quarantine and isolation interventions on disease infections, whereas other parameter were suppose as unchanged under the current intervention.
CONCLUSION:
The present study shows that, by reducing the contact rate of latent individuals, interventions such as quarantine and isolation can effectively reduce the potential peak number of COVID-19 infections and delay the time of peak infection. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
KEYWORDS:
COVID-19; SEIR compartmental model; contact rate; latent individuals
PMID:32243599DOI:10.1002/jmv.25827