tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Med Virol
. 2023 Oct;95(10):e29186.
doi: 10.1002/jmv.29186. Increased population susceptibility to seasonal influenza during the COVID-19 pandemic in China and the United States
Qing Wang[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Mengmeng Jia[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Mingyue Jiang[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Yanlin Cao[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Peixi Dai[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Jiao Yang[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Xiaokun Yang[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Yunshao Xu[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Weizhong Yang[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Luzhao Feng[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
To the best of our knowledge, no previous study has quantitatively estimated the dynamics and cumulative susceptibility to influenza infections after the widespread lifting of COVID-19 public health measures. We constructed an imitated stochastic susceptible-infected-removed model using particle-filtered Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the time-dependent reproduction number of influenza based on influenza surveillance data in southern China, northern China, and the United States during the 2022-2023 season. We compared these estimates to those from 2011 to 2019 seasons without strong social distancing interventions to determine cumulative susceptibility during COVID-19 restrictions. Compared to the 2011-2019 seasons without a strong intervention with social measures, the 2022-2023 influenza season length was 45.0%, 47.1%, and 57.1% shorter in southern China, northern China, and the United States, respectively, corresponding to an 140.1%, 74.8%, and 50.9% increase in scale of influenza infections, and a 60.3%, 72.9%, and 45.1% increase in population susceptibility to influenza. Large and high-intensity influenza epidemics occurred in China and the United States in 2022-2023. Population susceptibility increased in 2019-2022, especially in China. We recommend promoting influenza vaccination, taking personal prevention actions on at-risk populations, and monitoring changes in the dynamic levels of influenza and other respiratory infections to prevent potential outbreaks in the coming influenza season.
Keywords: COVID-19; seasonal influenza; surveillance; susceptibility.
. 2023 Oct;95(10):e29186.
doi: 10.1002/jmv.29186. Increased population susceptibility to seasonal influenza during the COVID-19 pandemic in China and the United States
Qing Wang[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Mengmeng Jia[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Mingyue Jiang[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Yanlin Cao[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Peixi Dai[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Jiao Yang[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Xiaokun Yang[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Yunshao Xu[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Weizhong Yang[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Luzhao Feng[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 37855656
- DOI: 10.1002/jmv.29186
To the best of our knowledge, no previous study has quantitatively estimated the dynamics and cumulative susceptibility to influenza infections after the widespread lifting of COVID-19 public health measures. We constructed an imitated stochastic susceptible-infected-removed model using particle-filtered Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the time-dependent reproduction number of influenza based on influenza surveillance data in southern China, northern China, and the United States during the 2022-2023 season. We compared these estimates to those from 2011 to 2019 seasons without strong social distancing interventions to determine cumulative susceptibility during COVID-19 restrictions. Compared to the 2011-2019 seasons without a strong intervention with social measures, the 2022-2023 influenza season length was 45.0%, 47.1%, and 57.1% shorter in southern China, northern China, and the United States, respectively, corresponding to an 140.1%, 74.8%, and 50.9% increase in scale of influenza infections, and a 60.3%, 72.9%, and 45.1% increase in population susceptibility to influenza. Large and high-intensity influenza epidemics occurred in China and the United States in 2022-2023. Population susceptibility increased in 2019-2022, especially in China. We recommend promoting influenza vaccination, taking personal prevention actions on at-risk populations, and monitoring changes in the dynamic levels of influenza and other respiratory infections to prevent potential outbreaks in the coming influenza season.
Keywords: COVID-19; seasonal influenza; surveillance; susceptibility.