tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Med Virol
. 2022 Nov 23.
doi: 10.1002/jmv.28335. Online ahead of print.
Impact of combination preventative interventions on hospitalization and death under the pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in China
Yi-Fan Lin[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xinsheng Wu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yuwei Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Junye Bian[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Kuibiao Li[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Yawen Jiang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhen Lu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Bing Zhang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Chongguang Yang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Caijun Sun[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Litao Sun[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Huachun Zou[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
With a large population most susceptible to Omicron and emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants, China faces uncertain scenarios if reopening its border. Thus, we aimed to predict the impact of combination preventative interventions on hospitalization and death. An age-stratified susceptible-infectious-quarantined-hospitalized-removed-susceptible (SIQHRS) model based on the new guidelines of COVID-19 diagnosis and treatment (the ninth edition) was constructed to simulate the transmission dynamics of Omicron within 365 days. At baseline, we assumed no interventions other than 60% booster vaccination in individuals aged <=60 years and 80% in individuals aged >60 years, quarantine and hospitalization. Oral antiviral medications for COVID-19 (e.g. BRII-196/BRII-198) and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing and antigen self-testing were considered in subsequent scenarios. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to reflect different levels of interventions. A total of 0.73 billion cumulative quarantines (95% CI 0.53-0.83), 33.59 million hospitalizations (22.41-39.31), and 0.62 million deaths (0.40-0.75) are expected in 365 days. The case fatality rate with pneumonia symptoms (moderate, severe and critical illness) is expected to be 1.83% (1.68-1.99%) and the infected fatality rate 0.38‰ (0.33-0.42‰). The highest existing hospitalization and ICU occupations are 3.11 (0.30-3.85) and 20.33 (2.01-25.20) times of capacity, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that interventions can be adjusted to meet certain conditions to reduce the total number of infections and deaths. In conclusion, after sufficient respiratory and ICU beds are prepared and the relaxed NPIs are in place, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant would not seriously impact the health system. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19); Non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI); Oral antiviral medications; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Stochastic dynamic model; Vaccination.
. 2022 Nov 23.
doi: 10.1002/jmv.28335. Online ahead of print.
Impact of combination preventative interventions on hospitalization and death under the pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in China
Yi-Fan Lin[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xinsheng Wu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yuwei Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Junye Bian[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Kuibiao Li[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Yawen Jiang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhen Lu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Bing Zhang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Chongguang Yang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Caijun Sun[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Litao Sun[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Huachun Zou[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 36418175
- DOI: 10.1002/jmv.28335
Abstract
With a large population most susceptible to Omicron and emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants, China faces uncertain scenarios if reopening its border. Thus, we aimed to predict the impact of combination preventative interventions on hospitalization and death. An age-stratified susceptible-infectious-quarantined-hospitalized-removed-susceptible (SIQHRS) model based on the new guidelines of COVID-19 diagnosis and treatment (the ninth edition) was constructed to simulate the transmission dynamics of Omicron within 365 days. At baseline, we assumed no interventions other than 60% booster vaccination in individuals aged <=60 years and 80% in individuals aged >60 years, quarantine and hospitalization. Oral antiviral medications for COVID-19 (e.g. BRII-196/BRII-198) and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing and antigen self-testing were considered in subsequent scenarios. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to reflect different levels of interventions. A total of 0.73 billion cumulative quarantines (95% CI 0.53-0.83), 33.59 million hospitalizations (22.41-39.31), and 0.62 million deaths (0.40-0.75) are expected in 365 days. The case fatality rate with pneumonia symptoms (moderate, severe and critical illness) is expected to be 1.83% (1.68-1.99%) and the infected fatality rate 0.38‰ (0.33-0.42‰). The highest existing hospitalization and ICU occupations are 3.11 (0.30-3.85) and 20.33 (2.01-25.20) times of capacity, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that interventions can be adjusted to meet certain conditions to reduce the total number of infections and deaths. In conclusion, after sufficient respiratory and ICU beds are prepared and the relaxed NPIs are in place, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant would not seriously impact the health system. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19); Non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI); Oral antiviral medications; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Stochastic dynamic model; Vaccination.