tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Med Virol
. 2022 Apr 21.
doi: 10.1002/jmv.27803. Online ahead of print.
Dynamics of influenza-like illness under urbanization procedure and COVID-19 pandemic in the sub-center of Beijing during 2013-2021
Chao Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yan-Na Yang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Lu Xi[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Li-Li Yang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Juan Du[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhong-Song Zhang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xin-Yao Lian[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yan Cui[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Hong-Jun Li[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Wan-Xue Zhang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Bei Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Fuqiang Cui[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Qing-Bin Lu[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Influenza-like illness (ILI) varies in intensity year by year, generally keeping a stable pattern except for great changes of its epidemic issue. Of the most impacting factors, urbanization has been suggested as shaping the intensity of influenza epidemics. Besides, growing evidence indicates the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 offer great advantages in controlling infectious diseases. The present study aimed to evaluate the impact of urbanization and NPIs on the dynamic of ILI in Tongzhou, Beijing, during January 2013 to March 2021. ILI epidemiological surveillance data in Tongzhou district were obtained from Beijing Influenza Surveillance Network and separated into three periods of urbanization and four intervals of coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Standardized average incidence rates of ILI in each separate stages were calculated and compared by using Wilson method and time series model of seasonal ARIMA. Influenza seasonal outbreaks showed similar epidemic size and intensity before urbanization during 2013－2016. Increased ILI activity was found during the process of Tongzhou's urbanization during 2017－2019, with the rate difference of 2.48 (95% CI 2.44, 2.52) and the rate ratio of 1.75 (95% CI 1.74, 1.76) of ILI incidence between pre-urbanization and urbanization periods. ILI activity abruptly decreased from the beginning of 2020 and kept at the bottom level almost in every epidemic interval. The top decrease in ILI activity by NPIs was shown in 5-14 years group in 2020-2021 influenza season, as 92.2% (95% CI 78.3%, 95.2%). The results indicated that both urbanization and NPIs interrupted the epidemic pattern of ILI. We should pay more attention to public health when facing increasing population density, human contact, population mobility and migration in the process of urbanization. NPIs and influenza vaccination should be implemented as necessary measures to protect people from common infectious diseases like ILI. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Keywords: COVID-19; China; Influenza-like illness; Nonpharmaceutical interventions; Urbanization.
. 2022 Apr 21.
doi: 10.1002/jmv.27803. Online ahead of print.
Dynamics of influenza-like illness under urbanization procedure and COVID-19 pandemic in the sub-center of Beijing during 2013-2021
Chao Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yan-Na Yang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Lu Xi[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Li-Li Yang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Juan Du[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhong-Song Zhang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xin-Yao Lian[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yan Cui[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Hong-Jun Li[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Wan-Xue Zhang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Bei Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Fuqiang Cui[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Qing-Bin Lu[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35451054
- DOI: 10.1002/jmv.27803
Abstract
Influenza-like illness (ILI) varies in intensity year by year, generally keeping a stable pattern except for great changes of its epidemic issue. Of the most impacting factors, urbanization has been suggested as shaping the intensity of influenza epidemics. Besides, growing evidence indicates the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 offer great advantages in controlling infectious diseases. The present study aimed to evaluate the impact of urbanization and NPIs on the dynamic of ILI in Tongzhou, Beijing, during January 2013 to March 2021. ILI epidemiological surveillance data in Tongzhou district were obtained from Beijing Influenza Surveillance Network and separated into three periods of urbanization and four intervals of coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Standardized average incidence rates of ILI in each separate stages were calculated and compared by using Wilson method and time series model of seasonal ARIMA. Influenza seasonal outbreaks showed similar epidemic size and intensity before urbanization during 2013－2016. Increased ILI activity was found during the process of Tongzhou's urbanization during 2017－2019, with the rate difference of 2.48 (95% CI 2.44, 2.52) and the rate ratio of 1.75 (95% CI 1.74, 1.76) of ILI incidence between pre-urbanization and urbanization periods. ILI activity abruptly decreased from the beginning of 2020 and kept at the bottom level almost in every epidemic interval. The top decrease in ILI activity by NPIs was shown in 5-14 years group in 2020-2021 influenza season, as 92.2% (95% CI 78.3%, 95.2%). The results indicated that both urbanization and NPIs interrupted the epidemic pattern of ILI. We should pay more attention to public health when facing increasing population density, human contact, population mobility and migration in the process of urbanization. NPIs and influenza vaccination should be implemented as necessary measures to protect people from common infectious diseases like ILI. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Keywords: COVID-19; China; Influenza-like illness; Nonpharmaceutical interventions; Urbanization.