tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Med Internet Res
. 2020 Jul 22.
doi: 10.2196/20914. Online ahead of print.
The Infection Rate of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China: a Combined Analysis of Population Samples
Hui-Qi Qu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhangkai Jason Cheng[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Zhifeng Duan[SUP] 1 3 [/SUP], Lifeng Tian[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Hakon Hakonarson[SUP] 1 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: The pandemic of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Wuhan had a much higher mortality rate than the rest of China. A large number of asymptomatic infections in Wuhan might have never been diagnosed, which contributed to the overestimated mortality rate.
Objective: To get an accurate estimation of infections in Wuhan by internet data.
Methods: In this study, we performed a combined analysis of the infection rates of evacuated citizens by a number of foreign governments to estimate the infection rate in Wuhan in late January and early February.
Results: Based on our analysis, the combined infection rate (95% CI) was 0.013 (0.008, 0.022) in the evacuated foreign citizens.
Conclusions: The number of infected people in Wuhan is estimated to be 143,000 (88,000 to 242,000) in late January and early February, significantly higher than the published number of diagnosed cases. Increased awareness of the original infection rates in Wuhan, China is critically important for proper public health measures at all levels, as well as to eliminate panic caused by overestimated mortality rate that may bias health policy actions by the authorities.
. 2020 Jul 22.
doi: 10.2196/20914. Online ahead of print.
The Infection Rate of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China: a Combined Analysis of Population Samples
Hui-Qi Qu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhangkai Jason Cheng[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Zhifeng Duan[SUP] 1 3 [/SUP], Lifeng Tian[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Hakon Hakonarson[SUP] 1 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32707538
- DOI: 10.2196/20914
Abstract
Background: The pandemic of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Wuhan had a much higher mortality rate than the rest of China. A large number of asymptomatic infections in Wuhan might have never been diagnosed, which contributed to the overestimated mortality rate.
Objective: To get an accurate estimation of infections in Wuhan by internet data.
Methods: In this study, we performed a combined analysis of the infection rates of evacuated citizens by a number of foreign governments to estimate the infection rate in Wuhan in late January and early February.
Results: Based on our analysis, the combined infection rate (95% CI) was 0.013 (0.008, 0.022) in the evacuated foreign citizens.
Conclusions: The number of infected people in Wuhan is estimated to be 143,000 (88,000 to 242,000) in late January and early February, significantly higher than the published number of diagnosed cases. Increased awareness of the original infection rates in Wuhan, China is critically important for proper public health measures at all levels, as well as to eliminate panic caused by overestimated mortality rate that may bias health policy actions by the authorities.