tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Infect Public Health
. 2021 Dec 24;15(2):210-213.
doi: 10.1016/j.jiph.2021.12.010. Online ahead of print.
Estimation of the true infection rate and infection fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 in each country
Masahiro Sonoo[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Takamichi Kanbayashi[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Takayoshi Shimohata[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Masahito Kobayashi[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Masashi Idogawa[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Hideyuki Hayashi[SUP] 6 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
The True Infection Rate (TIR) in the whole population of each country and the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are unknown although they are important parameters. We devised a simple method to infer TIR and IFR based on the open data. The prevalence rate of the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests among the population (Examination Rate; ER) and the positive rate of PCR tests (Infection Rate; IR) for 66 countries were picked up at a website 5 times from April 10th to June 13th, 2020, and the trajectory of each country was drawn over the IR vs. ER plot. IR and ER showed a strong negative correlation for some countries, and TIR was estimated by extrapolating the regression line when the correlation coefficient was between -0.99 and -1. True/Identified Case Ratio (TICR) and IFR were also calculated using the estimated TIR. The estimated TIR well coincided with local antibody surveys. Estimated IFR took on a wide range of values up to 10%: generally high in the Western countries. The estimated IFR of Singapore was very low (0.018%), which may be related to the reported gene mutation causing the attenuation of the viral virulence.
Keywords: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Infection fatality rate; PCR Examination; Total infection rate.
. 2021 Dec 24;15(2):210-213.
doi: 10.1016/j.jiph.2021.12.010. Online ahead of print.
Estimation of the true infection rate and infection fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 in each country
Masahiro Sonoo[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Takamichi Kanbayashi[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Takayoshi Shimohata[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Masahito Kobayashi[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Masashi Idogawa[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Hideyuki Hayashi[SUP] 6 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34995898
- PMCID: PMC8704731
- DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2021.12.010
Abstract
The True Infection Rate (TIR) in the whole population of each country and the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are unknown although they are important parameters. We devised a simple method to infer TIR and IFR based on the open data. The prevalence rate of the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests among the population (Examination Rate; ER) and the positive rate of PCR tests (Infection Rate; IR) for 66 countries were picked up at a website 5 times from April 10th to June 13th, 2020, and the trajectory of each country was drawn over the IR vs. ER plot. IR and ER showed a strong negative correlation for some countries, and TIR was estimated by extrapolating the regression line when the correlation coefficient was between -0.99 and -1. True/Identified Case Ratio (TICR) and IFR were also calculated using the estimated TIR. The estimated TIR well coincided with local antibody surveys. Estimated IFR took on a wide range of values up to 10%: generally high in the Western countries. The estimated IFR of Singapore was very low (0.018%), which may be related to the reported gene mutation causing the attenuation of the viral virulence.
Keywords: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Infection fatality rate; PCR Examination; Total infection rate.