tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Infect Dis
. 2025 Feb 18:jiaf054.
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiaf054. Online ahead of print. Estimates of SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Population Immunity After the COVID-19 Pandemic in Austria: Analysis of National Wastewater Data
Uwe Riedmann[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Alena Chalupka[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Lukas Richter[SUP] 2 3 [/SUP], Martin Sprenger[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Wolfgang Rauch[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Hannes Schenk[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Robert Krause[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Peter Willeit[SUP] 7 8 9 [/SUP], Herbert Oberacher[SUP] 10 11 [/SUP], Tracy Beth Høeg[SUP] 12 13 14 [/SUP], John P A Ioannidis[SUP] 15 16 17 18 [/SUP], Stefan Pilz[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Background: Postpandemic surveillance data on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections may help inform future public health policies regarding severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing, vaccinations, or other COVID-19 measures. We estimate the total SARS-CoV-2 infections in Austria after the end of the pandemic from wastewater data and utilize these estimates to calculate the average national levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection protection and COVID-19 death protection.
Methods: We estimated the total SARS-CoV-2 infections in Austria after the end of the pandemic (5 May 2023, per World Health Organization) up to May 2024 from wastewater data using a previously published model. These estimates were used in an agent-based model (ABM) to estimate average national levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection protection and COVID-19 death protection, based on waning immunity estimates of infections and vaccination in previous literature.
Results: We estimate approximately 3.2 million infections between 6 May 2023 and 23 May 2024, with a total of 17.8 million infections following 12 May 2020. The ABM estimates that the national average death protection was approximately 82% higher in May 2024 than before the pandemic. This represents a relative decrease of 8% since May 2023. It also shows that 95% of people in Austria were infected with SARS-CoV-2 at least once by May 2024. National infection protection remained relatively low after the onset of Omicron.
Conclusions: These findings should be considered for public health decisions on SARS-CoV-2 testing practices and vaccine booster administrations.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; immunization; nationwide; wastewater.
. 2025 Feb 18:jiaf054.
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiaf054. Online ahead of print. Estimates of SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Population Immunity After the COVID-19 Pandemic in Austria: Analysis of National Wastewater Data
Uwe Riedmann[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Alena Chalupka[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Lukas Richter[SUP] 2 3 [/SUP], Martin Sprenger[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Wolfgang Rauch[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Hannes Schenk[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Robert Krause[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Peter Willeit[SUP] 7 8 9 [/SUP], Herbert Oberacher[SUP] 10 11 [/SUP], Tracy Beth Høeg[SUP] 12 13 14 [/SUP], John P A Ioannidis[SUP] 15 16 17 18 [/SUP], Stefan Pilz[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 39964838
- DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiaf054
Background: Postpandemic surveillance data on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections may help inform future public health policies regarding severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing, vaccinations, or other COVID-19 measures. We estimate the total SARS-CoV-2 infections in Austria after the end of the pandemic from wastewater data and utilize these estimates to calculate the average national levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection protection and COVID-19 death protection.
Methods: We estimated the total SARS-CoV-2 infections in Austria after the end of the pandemic (5 May 2023, per World Health Organization) up to May 2024 from wastewater data using a previously published model. These estimates were used in an agent-based model (ABM) to estimate average national levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection protection and COVID-19 death protection, based on waning immunity estimates of infections and vaccination in previous literature.
Results: We estimate approximately 3.2 million infections between 6 May 2023 and 23 May 2024, with a total of 17.8 million infections following 12 May 2020. The ABM estimates that the national average death protection was approximately 82% higher in May 2024 than before the pandemic. This represents a relative decrease of 8% since May 2023. It also shows that 95% of people in Austria were infected with SARS-CoV-2 at least once by May 2024. National infection protection remained relatively low after the onset of Omicron.
Conclusions: These findings should be considered for public health decisions on SARS-CoV-2 testing practices and vaccine booster administrations.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; immunization; nationwide; wastewater.