tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Infect Dis
. 2020 Aug 1;jiaa491.
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiaa491. Online ahead of print.
COVID-19 epidemic doubling time in the United States before and during stay-at-home restrictions
Mark N Lurie[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Joe Silva[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Rachel R Yorlets[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jun Tao[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Philip A Chan[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Introduction: COVID-19 has spread rapidly in the United States since January 2020.
Methods: We estimated mean epidemic doubling time, an important measure of epidemic growth, nationally, by state and in association with stay-at-home orders.
Results: Epidemic doubling time in the US was 2.68 days (95%CI:2.30-3.24) prior to widespread mitigation efforts, increasing by 82% to 15 days (95%CI:12.89-17.94) during the mitigation phase. Among states without stay-at-home orders, median increase in doubling time was 34% (95%CI:21.16-68.85) while for states with stay-at-home orders, median increase was 72.9% (95%CI:69.18-76.11).
Discussion: Statewide mitigation strategies were strongly associated with increased epidemic doubling time.
Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; SARS-CoV-2; epidemic doubling time.
. 2020 Aug 1;jiaa491.
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiaa491. Online ahead of print.
COVID-19 epidemic doubling time in the United States before and during stay-at-home restrictions
Mark N Lurie[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Joe Silva[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Rachel R Yorlets[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jun Tao[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Philip A Chan[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32738142
- DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiaa491
Abstract
Introduction: COVID-19 has spread rapidly in the United States since January 2020.
Methods: We estimated mean epidemic doubling time, an important measure of epidemic growth, nationally, by state and in association with stay-at-home orders.
Results: Epidemic doubling time in the US was 2.68 days (95%CI:2.30-3.24) prior to widespread mitigation efforts, increasing by 82% to 15 days (95%CI:12.89-17.94) during the mitigation phase. Among states without stay-at-home orders, median increase in doubling time was 34% (95%CI:21.16-68.85) while for states with stay-at-home orders, median increase was 72.9% (95%CI:69.18-76.11).
Discussion: Statewide mitigation strategies were strongly associated with increased epidemic doubling time.
Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; SARS-CoV-2; epidemic doubling time.