tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Biol Dyn
. 2020 Dec;14(1):389-408.
doi: 10.1080/17513758.2020.1773000.
The Role of Asymptomatic Class, Quarantine and Isolation in the Transmission of COVID-19
Mohsin Ali[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Syed Touqeer H Shah[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mudassar Imran[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Adnan Khan[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
We formulate a deterministic epidemic model for the spread of Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19). We have included asymptomatic, quarantine and isolation compartments in the model, as studies have stressed upon the importance of these population groups on the transmission of the disease. We calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and show that for [Formula: see text] the disease dies out and for [Formula: see text] the disease is endemic. Using sensitivity analysis we establish that [Formula: see text] is most sensitive to the rate of quarantine and isolation and that a high level of quarantine needs to be maintained as well as isolation to control the disease. Based on this we devise optimal quarantine and isolation strategies, noting that high levels need to be maintained during the early stages of the outbreak. Using data from the Wuhan outbreak, which has nearly run its course we estimate that [Formula: see text] which while in agreement with other estimates in the literature is on the lower side.
Keywords: COVID-19; control strategies; coronavirus; isolation; lockdown; optimal control; quarantine.
. 2020 Dec;14(1):389-408.
doi: 10.1080/17513758.2020.1773000.
The Role of Asymptomatic Class, Quarantine and Isolation in the Transmission of COVID-19
Mohsin Ali[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Syed Touqeer H Shah[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mudassar Imran[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Adnan Khan[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32498655
- DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2020.1773000
Abstract
We formulate a deterministic epidemic model for the spread of Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19). We have included asymptomatic, quarantine and isolation compartments in the model, as studies have stressed upon the importance of these population groups on the transmission of the disease. We calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and show that for [Formula: see text] the disease dies out and for [Formula: see text] the disease is endemic. Using sensitivity analysis we establish that [Formula: see text] is most sensitive to the rate of quarantine and isolation and that a high level of quarantine needs to be maintained as well as isolation to control the disease. Based on this we devise optimal quarantine and isolation strategies, noting that high levels need to be maintained during the early stages of the outbreak. Using data from the Wuhan outbreak, which has nearly run its course we estimate that [Formula: see text] which while in agreement with other estimates in the literature is on the lower side.
Keywords: COVID-19; control strategies; coronavirus; isolation; lockdown; optimal control; quarantine.