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Italy - 8 of 10 initially positive asymptomatic cases of new coronavirus test negative in 2nd round - waiting for Ministry of Health confirmation - Ju
- Thread starter tetano
- Start date
Giuseppe
Emeritus
Re: Italy - 8 of 10 initially positive asymptomatic cases of new coronavirus test negative in 2nd round - waiting for Ministry of Health confirmation - June 3, 2013
Eight straight false positives at once!
Eight straight false positives at once!
Catbird
Senior Moderator
Re: Italy - 8 of 10 initially positive asymptomatic cases of new coronavirus test negative in 2nd round - waiting for Ministry of Health confirmation - June 3, 2013
I have another question, slightly OT from the confusion about the 10 suspect cases.
Ian's post in this thread earlier today quoted a report that said: "Upon his return on the 25th of May he already had fever, cough and difficulty breathing. He went back to work for at least 1 day before seeking medical care. He was hospitalised on the 28th of May and is stable. 45M's son also suffered an acute respiratory illness but remains in Jordan. 45M's granddaughter (1.5-year old; coughing and fever, Meyer Children's Centre) was in contact the previous Sunday (approximately 6-day incubation) and, along with a work mate, both tested positive."
So the original case was ill when he went back to work for 1 or 2 days prior to being hospitalized. Shortly thereafter, his co-worker became ill and tested positive. This incident seems to be stretching the definition of "close contact" if they were only in contact in a workplace situation for 1 or 2 days. Is this relative speed and ease of transmission an indication of the original case being a super-spreader? The fact that several of the 10 (or 12?) suspect cases now being labeled as false positives are HCW's may be another indication that the transmission process of the original Italian case may be different than other cases.
I have another question, slightly OT from the confusion about the 10 suspect cases.
Ian's post in this thread earlier today quoted a report that said: "Upon his return on the 25th of May he already had fever, cough and difficulty breathing. He went back to work for at least 1 day before seeking medical care. He was hospitalised on the 28th of May and is stable. 45M's son also suffered an acute respiratory illness but remains in Jordan. 45M's granddaughter (1.5-year old; coughing and fever, Meyer Children's Centre) was in contact the previous Sunday (approximately 6-day incubation) and, along with a work mate, both tested positive."
So the original case was ill when he went back to work for 1 or 2 days prior to being hospitalized. Shortly thereafter, his co-worker became ill and tested positive. This incident seems to be stretching the definition of "close contact" if they were only in contact in a workplace situation for 1 or 2 days. Is this relative speed and ease of transmission an indication of the original case being a super-spreader? The fact that several of the 10 (or 12?) suspect cases now being labeled as false positives are HCW's may be another indication that the transmission process of the original Italian case may be different than other cases.
Re: Italy - 8 of 10 initially positive asymptomatic cases of new coronavirus test negative in 2nd round - waiting for Ministry of Health confirmation - June 3, 2013
I read in another post that the case was employed at a hotel. Depending on the type of position held, there may have been close contact - i.e., while cleaning a room in a closed environment or working in a closed office - worse - if they were working the front desk...
I read in another post that the case was employed at a hotel. Depending on the type of position held, there may have been close contact - i.e., while cleaning a room in a closed environment or working in a closed office - worse - if they were working the front desk...
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Re: Italy - 8 of 10 initially positive asymptomatic cases of new coronavirus test negative in 2nd round - waiting for Ministry of Health confirmation - June 3, 2013
This is a part of a mantra to discredit anyone who does not go along with the party line.
We are going to document and follow credible news sources. The doctor treating and testing the current coronavirus nCoV cases in Italy is a credible source. Anything that he says is newsworthy - whether he is proved correct or not - it does not matter. He is at the heart of this situation.
We have been called a lot of things over the years. We are now immune to this. We do not get paid for our efforts. We are not connected to any governments or corporations.
We are going to do "our thing" and we really do not care if our critics like it or not.
We are 100% independent.
No one owns us.
This is a part of a mantra to discredit anyone who does not go along with the party line.
We are going to document and follow credible news sources. The doctor treating and testing the current coronavirus nCoV cases in Italy is a credible source. Anything that he says is newsworthy - whether he is proved correct or not - it does not matter. He is at the heart of this situation.
We have been called a lot of things over the years. We are now immune to this. We do not get paid for our efforts. We are not connected to any governments or corporations.
We are going to do "our thing" and we really do not care if our critics like it or not.
We are 100% independent.
No one owns us.
Re: Italy - 8 of 10 initially positive asymptomatic cases of new coronavirus test negative in 2nd round - waiting for Ministry of Health confirmation - June 3, 2013
I would think working together for a day or two, is stretching the definition of close contact....unless they were, 'close', if you get my drift. If they cleaned a room together, or worked in the same room even in close quarters, it seems to me, the coworker got infected very rapidly. It seems to me, that the mode of spread WAS more of a casual contact type of spread. They seem to be avoiding saying what type of work either of them did.
I'm curious to know if any one on the airplane with him is ill. He was symptomatic on the plane ride home. Also, his son was ill in Jordan. I suspect this is where the case came from, the son in Jordan. Granted, he was in Saudi, but the son was ill with a flu like illness. With the number of refugees in Jordan in camps with little to no medical care, how would we even begin to assess how bad the situation could be there? or in Syria? Iraq? I won't belabor the point.
I would think working together for a day or two, is stretching the definition of close contact....unless they were, 'close', if you get my drift. If they cleaned a room together, or worked in the same room even in close quarters, it seems to me, the coworker got infected very rapidly. It seems to me, that the mode of spread WAS more of a casual contact type of spread. They seem to be avoiding saying what type of work either of them did.
I'm curious to know if any one on the airplane with him is ill. He was symptomatic on the plane ride home. Also, his son was ill in Jordan. I suspect this is where the case came from, the son in Jordan. Granted, he was in Saudi, but the son was ill with a flu like illness. With the number of refugees in Jordan in camps with little to no medical care, how would we even begin to assess how bad the situation could be there? or in Syria? Iraq? I won't belabor the point.
Nika
Well-known member
Re: Italy - 8 of 10 initially positive asymptomatic cases of new coronavirus test negative in 2nd round - waiting for Ministry of Health confirmation - June 3, 2013
The first place I saw the rumor meme (in english because i do not speak Italian) is the item posted in this thread from ProMED.
Using that term should be a deliberate choice (considering all attendent reaction that arises from its use) unless it was a translation error by the people at ProMED?
The first place I saw the rumor meme (in english because i do not speak Italian) is the item posted in this thread from ProMED.
Using that term should be a deliberate choice (considering all attendent reaction that arises from its use) unless it was a translation error by the people at ProMED?
Catbird
Senior Moderator
Re: Italy - 8 of 10 initially positive asymptomatic cases of new coronavirus test negative in 2nd round - waiting for Ministry of Health confirmation - June 3, 2013
All true. But, media reports that he had contact with his grand-daughter for 1 day, then she later became ill. He had contact with his co-worker for 1 or possibly 2 days at the most and then she later became ill. I am unsure of the incubation periods for those 2 cases.
In other cases, there was sustained close contact between family members or, in 1 case a hospital roommate, before any transmission occurred. It just makes me wonder if there is something that made those 2 people more susceptible, or if this relative speed and ease of transmission is an indication that the virus has become more efficient.
And I too wonder about him working the front desk. Wish we had more info!
All true. But, media reports that he had contact with his grand-daughter for 1 day, then she later became ill. He had contact with his co-worker for 1 or possibly 2 days at the most and then she later became ill. I am unsure of the incubation periods for those 2 cases.
In other cases, there was sustained close contact between family members or, in 1 case a hospital roommate, before any transmission occurred. It just makes me wonder if there is something that made those 2 people more susceptible, or if this relative speed and ease of transmission is an indication that the virus has become more efficient.
And I too wonder about him working the front desk. Wish we had more info!
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Re: Italy - 8 of 10 initially positive asymptomatic cases of new coronavirus test negative in 2nd round - waiting for Ministry of Health confirmation - June 3, 2013
Nika -
Yes - it is from the Italian officials from the ISS.
As I said above, any comment from the lead doctor treating coronavirus nCoV patients is newsworthy. It is not a rumour.
Apparently the Italian officials are engaged in a smear program against their own domestic media and anyone who published the doctor's comments.
Nika -
Yes - it is from the Italian officials from the ISS.
As I said above, any comment from the lead doctor treating coronavirus nCoV patients is newsworthy. It is not a rumour.
Apparently the Italian officials are engaged in a smear program against their own domestic media and anyone who published the doctor's comments.
IanM
Member
Re: Italy - 8 of 10 initially positive asymptomatic cases of new coronavirus test negative in 2nd round - waiting for Ministry of Health confirmation - June 3, 2013
Here are a few reasons for false or unclear positives...
_Contamination with a POS control or previously amplified material (DNA form earlier RT-PCR runs-very bad news for the lab if its this - so many false POS suggest the need to shut down and clean up)
_Using a very generic PCR assay - there are "panCOV" PCR assays whose primers can pick up many different CoVs (one was used by Zaki to confirm a CoV)
_The Assay used by Prof Bartoloni of AOU was less specific than that used by the ISS (National Institute of Health)-picking up an endemic CoV (2292, NL63, OC43 or HKU1)
_The virus is not an endemic HCoV but i) a genetic variant of the MERS-CoV that counfounds the ISS test or ii) an entirely different CoV that cross-reacts with 1 test but not the other (ISS)
It seems the Prof reported on SOMEthing POS. Its not clear what he used, what he saw and why he felt confident to announce that information to the world at such a delicate time. It reflects on him and/or his labs process more than anyone else really.
Here are a few reasons for false or unclear positives...
_Contamination with a POS control or previously amplified material (DNA form earlier RT-PCR runs-very bad news for the lab if its this - so many false POS suggest the need to shut down and clean up)
_Using a very generic PCR assay - there are "panCOV" PCR assays whose primers can pick up many different CoVs (one was used by Zaki to confirm a CoV)
_The Assay used by Prof Bartoloni of AOU was less specific than that used by the ISS (National Institute of Health)-picking up an endemic CoV (2292, NL63, OC43 or HKU1)
_The virus is not an endemic HCoV but i) a genetic variant of the MERS-CoV that counfounds the ISS test or ii) an entirely different CoV that cross-reacts with 1 test but not the other (ISS)
It seems the Prof reported on SOMEthing POS. Its not clear what he used, what he saw and why he felt confident to announce that information to the world at such a delicate time. It reflects on him and/or his labs process more than anyone else really.
Re: Italy - 8 of 10 initially positive asymptomatic cases of new coronavirus test negative in 2nd round - waiting for Ministry of Health confirmation - June 3, 2013
This aruges that there many have been a different coronavirus in these samples, perhaps a human endemic one:
http://www.quotidianosanita.it/cronache/articolo.php?articolo_id=15316
So far we have watched about 60 people, all those that came in contact with the three hospital patients. The 8 cases that yesterday, in a first screening done by the Laboratory of Virology of the University of Florence were low-positive results, negative results are a second inspection done by the ISS. A single screening, experts say, is not considered sufficient, the protocols provide two exams, made by two different laboratories. ISS has been done a second test, in different portions of the viral genome, which gave a negative result.
This aruges that there many have been a different coronavirus in these samples, perhaps a human endemic one:
http://www.quotidianosanita.it/cronache/articolo.php?articolo_id=15316
So far we have watched about 60 people, all those that came in contact with the three hospital patients. The 8 cases that yesterday, in a first screening done by the Laboratory of Virology of the University of Florence were low-positive results, negative results are a second inspection done by the ISS. A single screening, experts say, is not considered sufficient, the protocols provide two exams, made by two different laboratories. ISS has been done a second test, in different portions of the viral genome, which gave a negative result.
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Re: Italy - 8 of 10 initially positive asymptomatic cases of new coronavirus test negative in 2nd round - waiting for Ministry of Health confirmation - June 3, 2013
Thanks Ian. Considering that these patients who tested "low positive" initially may still yet develop symptoms, does it make sense to wait a few days and take new samples for a new round of testing? Even if they are still asymptomatic?
Thanks Ian. Considering that these patients who tested "low positive" initially may still yet develop symptoms, does it make sense to wait a few days and take new samples for a new round of testing? Even if they are still asymptomatic?
IanM
Member
Re: Italy - 8 of 10 initially positive asymptomatic cases of new coronavirus test negative in 2nd round - waiting for Ministry of Health confirmation - June 3, 2013
It certainly does if they show signs or develop symptoms in the meantime.
But that needs to be considered in the context of what those first results mean.
What was the test that got these "low positives", a term that is very generic, and somewhat subjective. If the test was a real-time PCR, ia low POS refers to a larger number (the PCR amplification cycle number) at which the florescence signal broaches an arbitrary threshold value over the course of the reaction. The fluorescence rises in proportion to the amount of DNA accumulating during the PCR...in real-time.
This value, threshold cycle (Ct), is related to the amount of viral RNA (in this case) initially present - the lower the number, the more RNA because the PCR produces a signal earlier (starting from more RNA).
The Ct value has a direct relationship to how much DNA has amplified during the PCR part of the RT-PCR.
A low positive means different things to different people at different times...for MERS-CoV - any level of positive is currently important since we don't really care how mush is there from an infection control point of view (the major phase we are in now). A late Ct=a low positive which could be a Ct greater than 35 (or more, depending one the lab and protocols) PCR cycles.
Too much info??
It certainly does if they show signs or develop symptoms in the meantime.
But that needs to be considered in the context of what those first results mean.
What was the test that got these "low positives", a term that is very generic, and somewhat subjective. If the test was a real-time PCR, ia low POS refers to a larger number (the PCR amplification cycle number) at which the florescence signal broaches an arbitrary threshold value over the course of the reaction. The fluorescence rises in proportion to the amount of DNA accumulating during the PCR...in real-time.
This value, threshold cycle (Ct), is related to the amount of viral RNA (in this case) initially present - the lower the number, the more RNA because the PCR produces a signal earlier (starting from more RNA).
The Ct value has a direct relationship to how much DNA has amplified during the PCR part of the RT-PCR.
A low positive means different things to different people at different times...for MERS-CoV - any level of positive is currently important since we don't really care how mush is there from an infection control point of view (the major phase we are in now). A late Ct=a low positive which could be a Ct greater than 35 (or more, depending one the lab and protocols) PCR cycles.
Too much info??