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isolating cities
- Thread starter gsgs
- Start date
Amish Country
Well-known member
Re: isolating cities
THe current polulation of Gunnison CO. is (year 2000): 5,409. Estimated population in July 2006: 5,309 (-1.8% change)
Source: http://www.city-data.com/city/Gunnison-Colorado.html
I imagine the population may have been even smaller back in 1918. Controlling the flow of people into a small inland community with only 3 roads (probably dirt at that time) in or out in 1918 may be significantly different from trying to do the same for a major metropolitan area with interstate road systems, modern vehicles, rail traffic, international air traffic and the marine/port traffic we have today.
THe current polulation of Gunnison CO. is (year 2000): 5,409. Estimated population in July 2006: 5,309 (-1.8% change)
Source: http://www.city-data.com/city/Gunnison-Colorado.html
I imagine the population may have been even smaller back in 1918. Controlling the flow of people into a small inland community with only 3 roads (probably dirt at that time) in or out in 1918 may be significantly different from trying to do the same for a major metropolitan area with interstate road systems, modern vehicles, rail traffic, international air traffic and the marine/port traffic we have today.
gsgs
Registered User
Re: isolating cities
someone draw a graph of the delayment or reduction of flu preoduced by the wall as a function
of its porusity...
a porus wall is better than no wall (?)
you could monitor the porus parts, if there are only few, see SARS
------------------------
Gunnison population in 1918 is well documented, I must have it somewhere.
They isolated the whole county, but I think the city especially.
There were a few flu cases in the county, but very little.
I was curious, whether the Gunnison people had increased flu
in later years because of lack of acquired immunity, and a Gunnison
official kindly sent me some statistics, but the numbers were somehow
inconsistant and not informative. I don't remember exactly.
someone draw a graph of the delayment or reduction of flu preoduced by the wall as a function
of its porusity...
a porus wall is better than no wall (?)
you could monitor the porus parts, if there are only few, see SARS
------------------------
Gunnison population in 1918 is well documented, I must have it somewhere.
They isolated the whole county, but I think the city especially.
There were a few flu cases in the county, but very little.
I was curious, whether the Gunnison people had increased flu
in later years because of lack of acquired immunity, and a Gunnison
official kindly sent me some statistics, but the numbers were somehow
inconsistant and not informative. I don't remember exactly.
Re: isolating cities
There are 2 small towns (under 3,000) on either side of where I live. With only a couple of roads going in and out, those could be monitored pretty easily. Of course, people could still bypass the roads with bikes, etc; but I can envision successful sequestration here.
The towns are pretty well defined; no one outside of the city limits allowed in without submitting to quarantine.
I can't imagine large cities being successful without military assistance, even then, I'm doubtful.
There are 2 small towns (under 3,000) on either side of where I live. With only a couple of roads going in and out, those could be monitored pretty easily. Of course, people could still bypass the roads with bikes, etc; but I can envision successful sequestration here.
The towns are pretty well defined; no one outside of the city limits allowed in without submitting to quarantine.
I can't imagine large cities being successful without military assistance, even then, I'm doubtful.
Amish Country
Well-known member
Re: isolating cities
GSGS the world has changed a little since 1918 even in Gunnison county.
GSGS the world has changed a little since 1918 even in Gunnison county.
gsgs
Registered User
Re: isolating cities
more info about Gunnison 1918,
earlier thread:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=35570
1918 escape communities:
http://www.med.umich.edu/medschool/chm/influenza/index.htm
more info about Gunnison 1918,
earlier thread:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=35570
1918 escape communities:
http://www.med.umich.edu/medschool/chm/influenza/index.htm
Sunshine123
Well-known member
Re: isolating cities
Vinny, the flu will come fast and hard.
All practices of quarantine, protectionism and isolation
will go into play. There will be no time to build cement walls. Cars will be turned on their side and used as barricades. Community will determine who will come and go. Civil rights are gone for the greater good of saving the town from infection.
There are reports that the plague and illnesses came with the weather; fog, rain or storm. Viruses live for days in a droplet of water. (a well sealed home is an individuals first line of defense.)
By definition from CDC a pandemic is wide scale. It appears in all places around the world at once.
Vinny, the flu will come fast and hard.
All practices of quarantine, protectionism and isolation
will go into play. There will be no time to build cement walls. Cars will be turned on their side and used as barricades. Community will determine who will come and go. Civil rights are gone for the greater good of saving the town from infection.
There are reports that the plague and illnesses came with the weather; fog, rain or storm. Viruses live for days in a droplet of water. (a well sealed home is an individuals first line of defense.)
By definition from CDC a pandemic is wide scale. It appears in all places around the world at once.
Giuseppe
Emeritus
Re: isolating cities
The nature of viral agents is so unpredictable that no actual probability may be calculated.
Historical accounts may help us to prepare to another pandemic of unknown severity and magnitude.
Genetic tracking of viruses and epi-surveillance help also, but some people doesn't understand yet the importance of these activities and certain countries neglect to do these vital monitoring actions.
The nature of viral agents is so unpredictable that no actual probability may be calculated.
Historical accounts may help us to prepare to another pandemic of unknown severity and magnitude.
Genetic tracking of viruses and epi-surveillance help also, but some people doesn't understand yet the importance of these activities and certain countries neglect to do these vital monitoring actions.
gsgs
Registered User
Re: isolating cities
> By definition from CDC a pandemic is wide scale.
> It appears in all places around the world at once.
not necessarily. Most pandemics needed months or years to
go around the world.
Exceptions:
1918 2nd wave appeared at several distant places simultaneously,
also 1889 (?)
> By definition from CDC a pandemic is wide scale.
> It appears in all places around the world at once.
not necessarily. Most pandemics needed months or years to
go around the world.
Exceptions:
1918 2nd wave appeared at several distant places simultaneously,
also 1889 (?)
AlaskaDenise
In Memoriam
Re: isolating cities
Hi Vinny - good to hear from you again.
These pandemic timing are SO hard to predict. If you look at historical influenza pandemics, a new one can take over in as little as 10 years, or a long as 100 years.
See a list at http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=30640&postcount=1
I assume you still have your emergency supplies so your family is ready for ANY emergency.
.
Hi Vinny - good to hear from you again.
These pandemic timing are SO hard to predict. If you look at historical influenza pandemics, a new one can take over in as little as 10 years, or a long as 100 years.
See a list at http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=30640&postcount=1
I assume you still have your emergency supplies so your family is ready for ANY emergency.
.
Re: isolating cities
"There are reports that the plague and illnesses came with the weather; fog, rain or storm. Viruses live for days in a droplet of water. (a well sealed home is an individuals first line of defense.)".
Yes, I believe that even if the main ways of flu spreading are a few meter bunch of exhaled virus laced droplets, and the contaminated surfaces, the flu virus is an respiratory virus, thus, if we speak of an omnipresent virulent pandemic, where goes those exhaled respiratory gases of (bilions) infected humans?
In the surounding air.
If that air are heavily vaporous it would incorporate the viruses in the water droplets.
The fog move on by winds, or air currents.
In the public literature we have many examples of lab accidents which agents contaminated distant towns, and illnessed their populations very distant from the release point, driven by air currents.
Obviously, that depends of the type of the agent.
But, looking at an novel flu virus pandemic, I shouldn't bet that it wouldn't propagate itself a litttle bit (enaugh) that way.
I put an bolded If, but as Sunshine123 said in #30:
"There are reports that the plague and illnesses came with the weather; fog, rain or storm. Viruses live for days in a droplet of water. (a well sealed home is an individuals first line of defense.)".
Yes, I believe that even if the main ways of flu spreading are a few meter bunch of exhaled virus laced droplets, and the contaminated surfaces, the flu virus is an respiratory virus, thus, if we speak of an omnipresent virulent pandemic, where goes those exhaled respiratory gases of (bilions) infected humans?
In the surounding air.
If that air are heavily vaporous it would incorporate the viruses in the water droplets.
The fog move on by winds, or air currents.
In the public literature we have many examples of lab accidents which agents contaminated distant towns, and illnessed their populations very distant from the release point, driven by air currents.
Obviously, that depends of the type of the agent.
But, looking at an novel flu virus pandemic, I shouldn't bet that it wouldn't propagate itself a litttle bit (enaugh) that way.
Re: isolating cities
like some posters said: "the chances are unknown".
But, apart the chances of an H5N1 pandemic, I see that now at FT we reasonably post about ANY possible flu pandemic, from an seasonal flu, bf, or other primary source virus.
Looking the past time from 1997, or from 2005, it seems an "chicken little" thing or an poultry producer only holocaust, but looking at more than 10 years of world microbes patents, and other possible developments, I think we have more chances to see a pandemic than winning the last week (or next week) lottery.
Hi Vinny,
like some posters said: "the chances are unknown".
But, apart the chances of an H5N1 pandemic, I see that now at FT we reasonably post about ANY possible flu pandemic, from an seasonal flu, bf, or other primary source virus.
Looking the past time from 1997, or from 2005, it seems an "chicken little" thing or an poultry producer only holocaust, but looking at more than 10 years of world microbes patents, and other possible developments, I think we have more chances to see a pandemic than winning the last week (or next week) lottery.
gsgs
Registered User
Re: isolating cities
> In the public literature we have many examples of lab accidents
> which agents contaminated distant towns, and illnessed their
> populations very distant from the release point, driven by air currents.
now I remember a study about this. With an infected farm by avian flu
and they sent a team to examine spread of disease by wind to
other distant measuring points.
They had a mobile team, building a tent. Hmm, maybe they did
even create the wind.
It should be somewhere in the forums, maybe from 2006 ?
I'll try to find it.
> In the public literature we have many examples of lab accidents
> which agents contaminated distant towns, and illnessed their
> populations very distant from the release point, driven by air currents.
now I remember a study about this. With an infected farm by avian flu
and they sent a team to examine spread of disease by wind to
other distant measuring points.
They had a mobile team, building a tent. Hmm, maybe they did
even create the wind.
It should be somewhere in the forums, maybe from 2006 ?
I'll try to find it.
gsgs
Registered User
Re: isolating cities
> like some posters said: "the chances are unknown"
...incorrectly said. But "the chances" are subjective, so disagreement is expected.
> But, apart the chances of an H5N1 pandemic, I see that now at FT we reasonably post
> about ANY possible flu pandemic, from an seasonal flu, bf, or other primary source virus.
and we concentrate more and more on other diseases, indicating that the subjective
estimates go down
> Looking the past time from 1997, or from 2005, it seems an "chicken little" thing or an
> poultry producer only holocaust, but looking at more than 10 years of world microbes patents,
> and other possible developments, I think we have more chances to see a pandemic than
> winning the last week (or next week) lottery.
my estimate: 7% per year
> like some posters said: "the chances are unknown"
...incorrectly said. But "the chances" are subjective, so disagreement is expected.
> But, apart the chances of an H5N1 pandemic, I see that now at FT we reasonably post
> about ANY possible flu pandemic, from an seasonal flu, bf, or other primary source virus.
and we concentrate more and more on other diseases, indicating that the subjective
estimates go down
> Looking the past time from 1997, or from 2005, it seems an "chicken little" thing or an
> poultry producer only holocaust, but looking at more than 10 years of world microbes patents,
> and other possible developments, I think we have more chances to see a pandemic than
> winning the last week (or next week) lottery.
my estimate: 7% per year
Laidback Al
Well-known member
Re: isolating cities
There are more reports on other diseases here at FT, but that does not mean that the subjective estimates for bird flu have gone down at all. It just means there is little hard news about world-wide poultry/avian infections and even less media reports and news about suspected or potential human cases. You seem to think that subjective estimates rise and fall with the waxing and waning of media attention to bird flu.
The danger of a pandemic is separate and independent (i.e. not correlated) with the number of FT posts or general media reports on bird flu.
There are more reports on other diseases here at FT, but that does not mean that the subjective estimates for bird flu have gone down at all. It just means there is little hard news about world-wide poultry/avian infections and even less media reports and news about suspected or potential human cases. You seem to think that subjective estimates rise and fall with the waxing and waning of media attention to bird flu.
The danger of a pandemic is separate and independent (i.e. not correlated) with the number of FT posts or general media reports on bird flu.
AlaskaDenise
In Memoriam
Re: isolating cities
My grandfather (who lived during 1918), insisted that shepherds tending their flocks in the (Washington state) mountains caught the Spanish Flu, despite being confined to the hills for months at a time. Apparently at the time, this concept was generally accepted.
I think those young men may have found a way to occasionally visit some lady friends in towns.
.
My grandfather (who lived during 1918), insisted that shepherds tending their flocks in the (Washington state) mountains caught the Spanish Flu, despite being confined to the hills for months at a time. Apparently at the time, this concept was generally accepted.
I think those young men may have found a way to occasionally visit some lady friends in towns.
.
Re: isolating cities
Probabiliity of a pandemic actually happening is irrelevant when speaking of quarintine, protective sequestration, or whatever, IMO.
The question is the level of hysteria in the masses and political leaders, and their authority and ability to take or prevent dramatic, even draconian, action.
This is a political science issue. Look to examples of massive civic action for any reason; civil rights upheavals; FLQ crisis (Canada); 'student' riots in France; T-square; soccer hooliganism; Katrina ... People can be herded.
And look at the cultural mind-shift in the mass of people who are not directly involved in the disaster - e.g. the attitude change before, during and after a war; HIV perceptions from the "80s to 2000's; etc. Only a tip of the population iceberg needs to mobilize to change the behaviours of the rest of the community.
Can a town, city or community be isolated? Yes.
Will there be huge "collateral damage": Yes.
Is such action inevitable? No.
J.
Probabiliity of a pandemic actually happening is irrelevant when speaking of quarintine, protective sequestration, or whatever, IMO.
The question is the level of hysteria in the masses and political leaders, and their authority and ability to take or prevent dramatic, even draconian, action.
This is a political science issue. Look to examples of massive civic action for any reason; civil rights upheavals; FLQ crisis (Canada); 'student' riots in France; T-square; soccer hooliganism; Katrina ... People can be herded.
And look at the cultural mind-shift in the mass of people who are not directly involved in the disaster - e.g. the attitude change before, during and after a war; HIV perceptions from the "80s to 2000's; etc. Only a tip of the population iceberg needs to mobilize to change the behaviours of the rest of the community.
Can a town, city or community be isolated? Yes.
Will there be huge "collateral damage": Yes.
Is such action inevitable? No.
J.