JimO
Well-known member
I have a feeling that the vast majority of people in the U.S. believe that the flu season has either already peaked or is now peaking. These charts from Oklahoma would seem to confirm that:
However, when you read the isolates data, only 9 specimens (3.2% of positives) identified since 9/1/10 were pH1N1. I hope I am wrong, but Oklahoma appears to be past peak for seasonal flu, but just beginning to see pH1N1. They could have a second peak in 4 to 6 weeks.
Another good example is Louisiana. They have had very high %ILI for several weeks, with the highest level in Week 5.
However, when you look at the isolates data, there has been very little pH1N1 through Week 5.
In contrast, North Carolina has seen relatively high levels of pH1N1 in Weeks 2-6. They have also reported 14 influenza deaths, with 6 being children (an unprecidented percentage).
The reason I bring this up is that most state public health officials are saying that this is turning out to be a typical winter flu season, albeit a couple of weeks later than normal. There just doesn't seem to be the concern over the potential for a second round with pH1N1 being dominant. What I find disturbing is that there have been 35 pediatric deaths reported this season by the CDC. Of those, 31 have been reported in Weeks 1 through 6. Many of these children have died of seasonal flu. So, we already have a particularly bad flu season without pH1N1, but we also have a public that thinks the worst is over.
I hope pH1N1 fizzles out, but if the variant that evolved during the UK epidemic has gained the ability to evade prior immunity to some degree, I believe the "peak" will extend well into March and we will see many more deaths of children and young adults if we aren't willing to take drastic measures such as implementing effective school closings and cancellation of large events in cities with high %ILI. I don't think we have the will for those types of pro-active measures until and unless things get really bad.
However, when you read the isolates data, only 9 specimens (3.2% of positives) identified since 9/1/10 were pH1N1. I hope I am wrong, but Oklahoma appears to be past peak for seasonal flu, but just beginning to see pH1N1. They could have a second peak in 4 to 6 weeks.
Another good example is Louisiana. They have had very high %ILI for several weeks, with the highest level in Week 5.
However, when you look at the isolates data, there has been very little pH1N1 through Week 5.
In contrast, North Carolina has seen relatively high levels of pH1N1 in Weeks 2-6. They have also reported 14 influenza deaths, with 6 being children (an unprecidented percentage).
The reason I bring this up is that most state public health officials are saying that this is turning out to be a typical winter flu season, albeit a couple of weeks later than normal. There just doesn't seem to be the concern over the potential for a second round with pH1N1 being dominant. What I find disturbing is that there have been 35 pediatric deaths reported this season by the CDC. Of those, 31 have been reported in Weeks 1 through 6. Many of these children have died of seasonal flu. So, we already have a particularly bad flu season without pH1N1, but we also have a public that thinks the worst is over.
I hope pH1N1 fizzles out, but if the variant that evolved during the UK epidemic has gained the ability to evade prior immunity to some degree, I believe the "peak" will extend well into March and we will see many more deaths of children and young adults if we aren't willing to take drastic measures such as implementing effective school closings and cancellation of large events in cities with high %ILI. I don't think we have the will for those types of pro-active measures until and unless things get really bad.
