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Is Guinea getting control of the Ebola outbreak? - and other thoughts on today's WHO numbers

A

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Senior Moderator
The WHO released new data on the Ebola outbreak today:

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_08_13_ebola/en/

While the outbreak remains out of control in Liberia ad Sierra Leone, several things stand out about Guinea's recent numbers:

1. All 133 of its probable cases have died. That suggests to me that those are old cases that died without testing and will forever remain probable.

2. There are only 8 "suspected" cases in the country.

3. Only 15 total cases have been reported in the last week (August 5-11), and only 4 in the past two days.

4. The total number of ill patients in the country is no more than 25 (starting from Pathfinder's article a week ago and adding new cases and subtracting deaths), and may in fact be closer to 15, as we have no way to know how many people were discharged alive in the past week. If in fact, those numbers include the suspected cases above, the number of confirmed ill cases might be in the single digits.

So are they gaining control of their outbreak? And if so, are there lessons they can apply to the other countries?
 
Re: Is Guinea getting control of the Ebola outbreak? - and other thoughts on today's WHO numbers

The other interesting thing about today's report is that Nigeria must have gotten WHO confirmation of its 10 locally confirmed cases, as they have been moved from probable to confirmed.

Curiously, the three deaths are still listed as probable, even though there are now no probable cases. Is this because WHO is not clear on exactly who died? Or is this an error?

Notably also, one of the suspect cases has been excluded, reducing the total number of suspect cases in Nigeria from 3 to 2, and the total cases count from 13 to 12.
 
Re: Is Guinea getting control of the Ebola outbreak? - and other thoughts on today's WHO numbers

Perhaps because Guinea's outbreak started earlier, all the containment efforts were focused there such that they got a good handle on contact tracing and early treatment. I am actually surprised they are having any new cases at all.
 
Re: Is Guinea getting control of the Ebola outbreak? - and other thoughts on today's WHO numbers

Translation Google

Fri, August 15, 2014, 2:50 p.m.
Posted By Guineenews

Ebola: at least six months to control the epidemic, according to Doctors Without Borders.

The director of Doctors Without Borders Joanne Liu said Friday it will take six months at least to overcome the Ebola epidemic in the sub-region, do we learned from sources...
...
Moreover, the World Health Organization announced that the magnitude of the epidemic is "grossly underestimated" and that his staff is confident that the number of cases and deaths do not reflect reality.

For comparison, in presenting the situation of the Ebola virus on August 8 2014, the Ministry of Health of Guinea was announcing for Conakry five confirmed cases and two suspected, while employees of WHO and MSF, anonymously, announced ...464 suspected in Conakry.

http://guineenews.org/ebola-au-moin...ler-lepidemie-selon-medecins-sans-frontieres/
 
Re: Is Guinea getting control of the Ebola outbreak? - and other thoughts on today's WHO numbers

Pathfinder said:
For comparison, in presenting the situation of the Ebola virus on August 8 2014, the Ministry of Health of Guinea was announcing for Conakry five confirmed cases and two suspected, while employees of WHO and MSF, anonymously, announced ...464 suspected in Conakry.
Click to expand...

If true, that would be an alarming development.
 
Re: Is Guinea getting control of the Ebola outbreak? - and other thoughts on today's WHO numbers

Perhaps they are confusing 464 contacts under surveillance with actual cases? As a single importation into Nigeria put 198 people under monitoring, 5 independent (?) confirmed cases might result in 464 people under monitoring?
 
Re: Is Guinea getting control of the Ebola outbreak? - and other thoughts on today's WHO numbers

WHO is starting to agree:

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/18-august-2014/en/

Ebola situation in Nigeria and Guinea: encouraging signs


Situation assessment - 19 August 2014

The outbreak of Ebola virus disease in west Africa continues to evolve, with cases confirmed in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone. At present, no cases have been confirmed anywhere else in the world outside these 4 countries.

Nigeria

The situation in Lagos, Nigeria, where the first imported case was detected in July, looks reassuring. At present, the city?s 12 confirmed cases are all part of a single chain of transmission. Those infected by the initial case include medical staff involved in his treatment, a patient in the same hospital, and a protocol officer in very close contact with the patient.

The initial patient was vomiting frequently during travel and upon arrival. No one on the same flight was infected.

The full recovery to date of one infected contact is additional good news. It counters the widespread perception that infection with the Ebola virus is invariably a death sentence. Evidence suggests that early detection and supportive therapy increase the prospects of survival.

Intensive contact tracing, conducted by Nigerian health officials and staff from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has not, so far, identified any further confirmed cases outside the initial transmission chain.

The index case arrived in Lagos on 20 July and died on 25 July. The 21-day incubation period has lapsed. All 12 cases were confirmed in a WHO-approved laboratory.

The intensity of the search and monitoring effort raises cautious optimism that further spread of the virus in Nigeria can be stopped. The search for additional cases continues, as does the current high level of vigilance.

Guinea

The outbreak in Guinea, where the virus made its first appearance in west Africa last December, is less alarming than in Liberia and Sierra Leone.

Public awareness of the facts about Ebola is higher there than in the other affected countries. Innovative solutions are being found. For example, respected community leaders have been used to secure the cooperation of 26 villages that were highly resistant to outside help.

The opening of these villages has resulted in a surge of reported cases. These are cases that were previously concealed; their reporting should not be interpreted as a sudden upsurge in Guinea?s outbreak.

However, the outbreak is not under control. As recent experience shows, progress is fragile, with a real risk that the outbreak could experience another flare-up. A case in a previously unaffected area was reported last week, indicating continuing spread to new areas.

WHO media contacts:

Gregory Hartl
Telephone: +41 22 791 4458
Mobile: +41 79 203 6715
Email: hartlg@who.int

Fad?la Chaib
Telephone: + 41 22 791 3228
Mobile:+ 41 79 475 55 56
Email: chaibf@who.int
 
Re: Is Guinea getting control of the Ebola outbreak? - and other thoughts on today's WHO numbers

That does look encouraging. Probably the biggest threat to Guinea is the potential influx of Guineans from Liberia who have had exposure.
 
Re: Is Guinea getting control of the Ebola outbreak? - and other thoughts on today's WHO numbers

Published 4 days ago according to Google as the article is undated.

Translation Google

Ebola: Nationals from a small town in Macenta cry "planned euthanasia " after the death of 18 people (E)

Written by Mosaic. Posted in Politics

It is from a letter addressed to the Association of Guinean nationals of France, to the Supreme Council of Forest diaspora, to the deans and sages of Forest Guinea, that we learn that 18 people have died, no one knows of what, Ebola or another mysterious illness in a small town in the prefecture Macenta. Confusion reigns on site, minds are frayed. Citizens of this small town, shout to 'the planned euthanasia. Here is the letter:

Subject: URGENT S.O.S at N'ZENIE (administrative region Macenta).

To Gentlemen Presidents of ARGUIFA and CSDF, Deans and Elders of the Forest Guinea,

It is with a broken heart completely overshadowed that I write this message to request your urgent help. Here are the facts:

N'Z?ni?n our village, located 120 Kms southwest of Macenta , experienced in the space of three weeks 18 deaths the causes of which have not been formally identified. The local health authorities are confusing in their way to act. Worse, they spread terror by telling patients that the disease, Ebola is incurable. This is an error which complicates the management of the crisis.

? There is also the case of staff of the Red Cross who gave an injection to a suffering woman who passed away in the hours following the injection. This gives rise to suspicion and unrestrained interpretations given that the injection was made without prior diagnosis. We are led to believe that the officers practiced euthanasia on the woman.

? There is also the suspicious demand from the Sub-Prefect requesting the identification of family members of the deceased to know exactly the number to send them to Macenta. This demand creates panic in parents who have no other recourse.

Here are many facts that complicate the management of the crisis Ebola and facilitates the spread of the disease.

To recap, three months ago, in Macenta, officers of the Red Cross and Doctors Without Borders had separated .... We call on all levels to help manage the crisis and assist parents who are in distress.

We are counting on your understanding
Napoleon Sovogui
. Contact Phone: 203-435-6110
PS: You can also contact Dr. Antoine Sovogui at 267-600-2560,
for all practical purposes.

http://www.mosaiqueguinee.com/index...ifiee-apres-le-deces-de-18-personnes-courrier
 
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