Is a Second H1N1 Wave Starting in Southern Mexico?

[Laidback Al]

Between June 23, 2009, and July 23, 2009 there has been a 5-fold increase in H1N1 cases in the state of Chiapas and a 3-fold increase in H1N1 cases in the state of Yucatan. These rapid increases along with increases in confirmed deaths in these two states led one media outlet to report that Mexico is experiencing a resurgence or second wave in these southern states.

Since June 23, 2009, the Mexico Ministry of Health has reported an additional 7104 confirmed H1N1 cases in Mexico as of July 23, 2009; more than half of these (3606) are from Chiapas and Yucatan. In fact, both Chiapas and Yucatan have more confirmed total cases than the densely populated Districto Federal. The number of cases in the Federal District has only risen slightly during this same 30 day period. The graph below depicts this dramatic rise in cases compared to the minor increases in the Federal District. The Mexico Ministry of Health does not break down deaths by state, so we only have the news article referenced above that discusses the relative increase in deaths in Chiapas.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Is a Second H1N1 Wave Starting in Southern Mexico?

for the world it started in late April when viruses started flying
out of Cancun, which is near Yucatan.
But at that time almost no Mexican cases were reported
in that area.
We had two different strains from Cancun, one of which
had 11 characteristic markers, which is unusual, and did
spread around the world. It was particularly mild in New York.
Is it the same virus which is now spreading in Yucatan and Chiapas ?
Alpuche probably knows it and may tell us later...