Irene: 2.5 million people without power, new flood dangers, at least 44 deaths in 13 states

Pathfinder · Aug 24, 2011

Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

Hurricane IRENE Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 240846
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

THE LAST PENETRATION OF THE EYE BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS
WAS JUST AFTER 0500 UTC...AND THEY FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAD DROPPED TO 966 MB. THEY ALSO MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 92 KT OUTBOUND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. IT IS LIKELY THAT
HIGHER WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
HURRICANE. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS..THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
IRENE HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
ARE 100 KT. COMBINING THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SET CONSERVATIVELY AT 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ANOTHER
HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200 UTC TO MEASURE THE
INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...THIS SHEAR
IS NOT EXPECTED TO PREVENT FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND IT SEEMS
HIGHLY LIKELY THAT IRENE WILL INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS LATER
TODAY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH COULD OCCUR IN 1 TO 2 DAYS
DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. IN FACT...THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE
TECHNIQUE SHOWS A CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS
AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE ANIMATION AND CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE EYE OF IRENE HAS
BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN A WEST AND NORTHWEST HEADING OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SMOOTHING THROUGH THESE WOBBLES YIELDS A MORE
REPRESENTATIVE MOTION OF ABOUT 295/8. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES. OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS IT MOVES THROUGH A
PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AROUND 72 HOURS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BEGIN TO
INDUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOME
ACCELERATION AFTERWARDS. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS...AGAIN...SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS.

USERS ARE REMINDED THAT SIGNIFICANT ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
FORECASTS AT LONGER LEAD TIMES...SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST POSITIONS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 21.6N 72.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 22.5N 74.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 24.1N 75.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 25.8N 76.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 27.7N 77.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 32.0N 76.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 36.5N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 42.0N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/240846.shtml?

--------------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane IRENE Public Advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 241157
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE....EYE HEADED FOR THE
CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF ACKLINS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115
MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORTING STATION AT PINE CAY IN THE
CAICOS ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 65 MPH....105 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/241157.shtml?

Pathfinder · Aug 24, 2011

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

Posted on Tuesday, 08.23.11

Now a Category 3, Hurricane Irene begins churn through Bahamas

For the island chain, a storm surge of up to 11 feet could be the biggest concern from Hurricane Irene; South Florida could see rough seas and nasty weather from the fringes of the large, powerful storm.

By CURTIS MORGAN, HANNAH SAMPSON, FRANCES ROBLES AND JACQUELINE CHARLES

hsampson@MiamiHerald.com

Hurricane Irene roared back to life as a Category 3 storm as it bore down on the Bahamas Wednesday morning in an assault that was expected to last through Thursday.

...

Stephen Russell, director of the Bahamas National Emergency Management Center said he was particularly concerned about residents in low lying areas in those islands who are resisting the appeal to evacuate.

"They are right in the direct path of a Category 3 storm, but there has been resistance," he told the Miami Herald. "We are trying to let them know what they are up against. People have been in their homes for years and they don't feel comfortable anywhere else."

Full text:
http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/08/23/v-fullstory/2372493/8amupdate-irene-bahamas.html#ixzz1Vx53cD6g

Pathfinder · Aug 24, 2011

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

Impact uncertain as Hurricane Irene aims at New England

08/24/2011 12:05 PM
By Martin Finucane, Globe Staff


The worst-case scenario sounds scary: Hurricane Irene could sweep ashore in New England this weekend, dousing the state with torrential rains, and lashing it with damaging wind gusts, while heavy surf pounds the coasts and water rises in streams.

But it?s still ?highly uncertain? exactly where and how hard the storm will hit, National Weather Service forecasters said this morning.

The key question, as the storm moves up the coast, is whether the storm will track more to the east or to the west, said weather service meteorologist Alan Dunham.

More...
http://www.boston.com/Boston/metrod...rd-will-hit/RPuVlg5rWw0LLsVQ3WPmkN/index.html

Pathfinder · Aug 24, 2011

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

Hurricane Irene Continues Its Assault on the Bahamas

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Aug 24, 2011; 11:25 AM ET

Dangerous Hurricane Irene continues to unleash its fury on the islands of the Bahamas, known to many visitors and natives as paradise.

**As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Wednesday, the dangerous eye wall of Category 3 Irene was moving northwestward and passing over Crooked and Acklin's islands in the Bahamas. Next stop for the eye of Irene in the Bahamas is Long Island.

Areas near or to the right of the storm track will bear the full wrath of Irene's fury. That puts Cat, Eleuthera and Abaco islands in serious danger.
People and travel interests are strongly urged to take Hurricane Irene very seriously as there is the potential for loss of life and great damage.
...
Irene can reach a very dangerous, Category 4 status before leaving the Bahamas late Thursday with winds around the eye wall topping 130 mph.

Full text & video:
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/54147/hurricane-irene-threatens-baha.asp

Pathfinder · Aug 24, 2011

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

Posted on Wednesday, 08.24.11

Bahamas begins to feel Irene

Emergency managers keep an eye on the East Coast, especially the Northeast and Long Island, as Irene becomes a Category 3 storm.

By Erika Bolstad
ebolstad@MiamiHerald.com

Excerpt:
?They?re going through a really tough time in the next 24 to 36 hours, with a large hurricane moving through the islands,? he said. ?They have lots of experience with hurricanes, but it doesn?t lessen the impact.?

Irene is expected to continue to move to the northwest, where there is a favorable environment for intensification, Read said.

That means it could grow stronger than a Category 3 as it heads toward the North Carolina coastline, Read said. Officials are predicting the center of the storm to be near or over the Outer Banks in the afternoon and evening hours of Saturday. The potential for the onset of tropical storm-force winds could be as soon as the early morning hours Saturday.

Full text:
http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/08/24/2373005/bahamas-begins-to-feel-irene.html

Pathfinder · Aug 24, 2011

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

Hurricane Irene: Major Northeast Threats

Updated: August 24, 2011 2:30 pm ET


It's not every day you see a hurricane forecast cone pointed into the Northeast.

In fact, the concern among meteorologists is high. National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read: "We are very concerned with what's going to happen in New England. The benchmark is the 1938 hurricane. I am very concerned with what will happen there."

The potential is real for the strongest hurricane hit on the Northeast in at least a couple decades this weekend!

Continue reading:
http://www.weather.com/weather/hurr...cane-irene-major-northeast-threats_2011-08-23

Pathfinder · Aug 24, 2011

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

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Pathfinder · Aug 24, 2011

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

Haiti

Haiti escapes serious damage from Hurricane Irene, UN reports

Report
?
24 Aug 2011
UN News Service

24 August 2011 ? Hurricane Irene has left impoverished Haiti relatively unscathed, with only isolated damage from flooding and no widespread serious emergencies in a country that is still struggling to recover from last year?s devastating earthquake, the United Nations reported today.

Irene is gaining strength as it approaches the south-eastern Bahamas but is losing its capacity to threaten northern Haiti, with rains there expected to decrease during the day.

The ?red alert? which Haitian authorities issued for the entire country has been lifted, although an ?orange alert? is still in force in three northern departments, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said.

There are isolated areas of damage in the northern regions, but OCHA has deactivated the emergency joint operation centre it was coordinating. The UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH), meanwhile, is keeping its regional crisis management centres active until local authorities and humanitarian actors decide they are no longer needed.

Shipping activities are still interrupted but international and domestic flights have resumed.

Only one of the more than 160 evacuation sites has been used so far, by 500 people, and some roads have been cut by landslides.

(MINUSTAH), which has been in the country since mid-2004 after then president Jean-Bertrand Aristide went into exile amid violent unrest, had put some of its nearly 12,000 peacekeepers on emergency standby in case they should be needed for rescue operations.

Haiti, the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere, is still struggling to recover from the devastating 2010 earthquake that killed more than 200,000 people and displaced 2.3 million others, and from Hurricane Tomas, which caused widespread flooding in November, unleashing a cholera epidemic that killed hundreds and infected some 20,000 people.

http://reliefweb.int/node/442900

Pathfinder · Aug 24, 2011

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

As Hurricane Irene Approaches, FEMA Urges East Coast Residents to Be Prepared

Residents Should Follow the Instructions of Local Officials and Visit Ready.gov or Listo.gov to Prepare for Hurricanes and Severe Weather
Release Date: August 24, 2011
Release Number: HQ-11-134

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- As Hurricane Irene moves toward the East Coast of the United States, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is urging all residents in East Coast states to take steps now to prepare their families and businesses for hurricanes and severe weather. Visit www.Ready.gov or www.Listo.gov for helpful tips on preparing for hurricanes, flash flooding and other disasters.

According to the National Weather Service, Hurricane Irene is now a category three hurricane and will move across the southeastern and central Bahamas today and over the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. For more forecast information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Hurricane Center, click here.

"FEMA, along with the entire federal family, continues to closely monitor Hurricane Irene," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "We remain in close contact and coordination with all of our state and territorial partners in the Caribbean and along the East Coast that have already or could possibly experience impacts from this storm. Hurricane Irene's future path is still uncertain, and I encourage everyone to visit Ready.gov and take steps now to keep their family safe and secure. The most important thing for people to do right now is to listen to and follow the instructions of their local officials. If you are told to evacuate, evacuate."

FEMA continues its support response efforts in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and on August 22, President Obama signed an emergency declaration for Puerto Rico, making federal funding available to supplement commonwealth and local response efforts in the area. In Puerto Rico, federal personnel are joining commonwealth and local officials today to conduct joint preliminary damage assessments, as weather permits. These damage assessments are the first step in helping a governor determine whether the scope of the damages are beyond what the commonwealth is capable of handling, and if additional federal assistance is needed.

Additionally, this past weekend, FEMA proactively deployed regional Incident Management Assistance Teams to the Caribbean to coordinate with territory and local officials to identify needs and shortfalls impacting potential disaster response and recovery. While Hurricane Irene moves away from Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, FEMA encourages those in the area to continue to monitor weather conditions and listen to the direction of commonwealth and territorial officials.

As Hurricane Irene approaches the East Coast, FEMA, through its regional offices in Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Atlanta, continues to monitor the storm closely and is in close contact with their respective state emergency management agencies.

In advance preparation for the storm, FEMA has deployed National Incident Management Assistance Teams to staging areas in Georgia and Virginia, in anticipation of further deployment to potential impact areas along the east coast of the U.S. Additionally, at all times, FEMA maintains commodities, including millions of liters of water, millions of meals and hundreds of thousands of blankets, strategically located at distribution centers throughout the United States and its territories. In Atlanta, for instance, FEMA has more than two million liters of water, more than 1.3 million meals, and more than 16,000 cots and 56,000 blankets. These resources may be moved to Incident Support Bases, which are distribution centers located closer to the impacted areas, as needed and requested by state partners.

These commodities are meant to supplement state resources if needed, but it's critical that individuals and families that are able build their own emergency supply kits, so that in the event of a disaster, state and local resources can be focused on our most vulnerable citizens.

FEMA is coordinating across the federal government to ensure territorial and state officials have the support they need as they respond to or prepare for Irene. New actions as of today include, but are not limited to:

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has started deploying members of the 249th Engineering Battalion (Prime Power) to Puerto Rico to assist with restoring power to the island.
The Federal Communications Center (FCC) has deployed two Roll Call Spectrum Scanning teams to the FEMA regional offices in Atlanta and Boston. These teams conduct post scans after landfall to determine which critical communications systems might have been impacted.
Health and Human Services (HHS) is prepared to provide public health and medical support to states along the east coast in response to Hurricane Irene. The HHS is also coordinating with public health and emergency management agencies in U.S. territories and states along the projected hurricane path to make information available on how people can protect their health as they prepare for and respond to hurricanes and other natural disasters.
The U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) has activated a Defense Coordinating Officer to the FEMA Regional Response Coordination Center in Atlanta in preparation for support to civil authorities as Hurricane Irene approaches the East Coast of the United States.
The Department of Defense has designated Fort Bragg, North Carolina as an Incident Support Base to support FEMA operations to respond to Hurricane Irene.

Click here for the previous update on these activities.

FEMA encourages everyone, regardless of whether they live in a hurricane-prone area, to take steps to ensure their families, homes and businesses are prepared for a possible emergency. As a reminder, the month of September is designated as National Preparedness Month (NPM), an opportunity to encourage Americans to be prepared for disasters or emergencies in their homes, businesses, and communities. Individuals and families can learn about events and activities, and groups can register to become a NPM Coalition Member by visiting community.fema.gov. NPM is sponsored by the Ready Campaign in partnership with Citizen Corps and The Ad Council.

FEMA's support of disaster response activities in Puerto Rico, and its proactive support for East Coast storm preparations, does not diminish its focus from critical federal disaster response and recovery operations that continue, across the nation, including flooding in the Midwest and the ongoing recovery from the southeastern tornadoes. Every disaster is a reminder that they can happen anytime, anywhere. Now is the time to prepare--visit www.Ready.gov or www.Listo.gov for tips on creating your family emergency plan and putting together an emergency supply kit.

Follow FEMA online at blog.fema.gov, www.twitter.com/fema, www.facebook.com/fema, and www.youtube.com/fema. Also, follow FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate's activities at www.twitter.com/craigatfema.

The social media links provided are for reference only. FEMA does not endorse any non-government websites, companies or applications.

FEMA's mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.

Last Modified: Wednesday, 24-Aug-2011 15:44:36

http://www.fema.gov/news/newsrelease.fema?id=57369

Pathfinder · Aug 24, 2011

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas

Hurricane IRENE Public Advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 242354
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE MOVING BETWEEN RUM CAY AND LONG
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 75.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE IS MOVING BETWEEN LONG ISLAND AND RUM CAY
IN THE BAHAMAS...AND AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...IT WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
IRENE.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES. AN
AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION ON LONG ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS REPORTED A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 969.1 MB...28.62 INCHES AT 700 PM EDT...2300
UTC...AS THE EYE PASSED NEAR THE STATION.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...REACHING HURRICANE FORCE BY
THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAINS WILL
BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...BRINGING MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL TO 6 TO 12 INCHES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/242354.shtml

Pathfinder · Aug 25, 2011

Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas - Hurricane Watch for North Carolina

Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas - Hurricane Watch for North Carolina

000
WTNT34 KNHC 251156
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...IRENE POUNDING THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 76.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 670 MI...1085 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA
BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM. THE
OFFICIAL REPORTING SITE IN NASSAU RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO 62 MPH...100 KM/H. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORTING STATION ON NASSAU
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 100 MPH...161 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA AND AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING SITE AT ROCK SOUND ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
ELEUTHERA ISLAND REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 952.4 MB AS THE
CENTER PASSED NEARBY A FEW HOURS AGO.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAINS WILL
BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...BRINGING THE MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL TO 6 TO 12 INCHES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/251156.shtml

Pathfinder · Aug 25, 2011

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas - Hurricane Watch for North Carolina

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas - Hurricane Watch for North Carolina

Local - 25 August 2011, 7:48 AM

Hurricane Irene rains leave 3 dead

Santo Domingo.- Three people dead and an unconfirmed number of missing, 37,000 displaced to safer areas as well as 88 communities cut off and 2,292 houses affected, has been the toll left so far by the rains that have fallen across the country following the passage of Hurricane Irene, according to the Emergency Operations Center (COE).

Salvador Nova Carvajal, 40, was killed when a gully overflowed and destroyed his house in the Taj?n sector of Cambita Garabito in the province of San Crist?bal, where a pregnant woman, Miguelina Esmeralda Pacheco, was also swept away to her death when she tried to cross a gully.

The third casualty was Jean Robert, 42, who fell into the Chav?n River while trying to cross, at Sabana de Rodeo in the El Cuey sector in the province of El Seibo.

More...
http://www.dominicantoday.com/dr/local/2011/8/25/40695/Hurricane-Irene-rains-leave-3-dead

Pathfinder · Aug 25, 2011

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas - Hurricane Watch for North Carolina

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas - Hurricane Watch for North Carolina

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
PR- 306-11
August 25, 2011

MAYOR BLOOMBERG UPDATES NEW YORKERS ON CITY PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE IRENE AND STEPS NEW YORKERS SHOULD TAKE TO PREPARE

The following are Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg?s remarks as delivered this morning outside of St. Luke?s Baptist Church in Laurelton, Queens, where he met with residents and visited a Department of Environmental Protection crew working on preemptive flood mitigation.


?We?re joined by too many people to introduce, but this is the community?s representatives, clergy, and laymen and laywomen who live in this wonderful community, and like all of us are worried about Irene. I met with some of the community leaders this morning for breakfast, and we discussed how to prepare ourselves for the coming storm and the flooding that could result from it.

?The good news is that our Department of Environmental Protection ? and crews like the ones you saw working here on the street ? are working hard to clean out catch basins, which will help mitigate flooding from the weather that?s heading our way. You should know we have 143,000 catch basins in this city. We can?t check them all every day. As a matter of fact, the schedule is once every three years, but we do inspect certain ones much more frequently because they have a much greater impact on the system. And so we think we?re a little bit ahead of where we want to be, at least we hope we are. But we?re doing everything we can.

?Since 2002, you should know that we?ve invested nearly $2 billion in citywide sewer system upgrades, including $242 million specifically where we are in Southeast Queens, which has helped reduce flooding in what is the most flood-prone area in our city.

?The City has already seen the power of Mother Nature once this week, and Mother Nature may not be done with us yet. I?m sure that many of you are following the story of Hurricane Irene. I?d like to give you an update on how we?re preparing our city for all possible scenarios.

Unfortunately, there is an element of unpredictability when it comes to the weather, and so we hope for the best but we prepare for the worst.

That?s why this City is, I think, ready for this weekend.

?By the time Irene gets to us, which is forecasted to do sometime on Sunday, it certainly will still be a powerful storm ? possibly as strong as a Category 2 hurricane on Long Island, but anything can happen in terms of its direction and its severity.

?At this point, the forecast does not indicate that the storm would hit New York City with that strength, but we certainly will still see its effects here, including tropical storm-like conditions such as heavy rains and winds of 60 miles an hour or more. And as a matter of fact, you?re going to see some of Mother Nature later this afternoon if the forecasters are right. There is a band of heavy thunderstorms that are scheduled to move across the city later today, and so take the normal precautions. When you?re out in thunderstorms, don?t go out into a field, get inside, inside a car, or inside a building. And be careful. And also, it?s a good time to check in on any neighbors who live alone, and could use some help.

?If the worst scenario is going to happen this weekend, we will activate other elements of our Coastal Storm Plan, including the possibility of evacuating of New Yorkers who live in low-lying areas that could be affected by such storm surges. That includes places such as Coney Island and Manhattan Beach in Brooklyn, Far Rockaway and Broad Channel in Queens, South Beach, Midland Beach, and other low-lying areas on Staten Island, and Battery Park City in Manhattan.

?We don?t yet have enough information yet to make that call. There are still too many unknowns, but we will make a decision on whether to call for evacuating certain areas based on the track, the speed, and the strength of the storm as it moves from the Bahamas up the east coast.

?In the meantime, there are some steps that New Yorkers can take to prepare themselves for the storm. First, find out if you live in a hurricane evacuation zone. You can do this by going on the City?s website, nyc.gov and typing in your address, or by calling 311 and giving your address to the call-taker. If you do live in an evacuation zone, now is a very good time to check in with your friends or family in other parts of the city and identify a place you could stay if the weather gets bad.

?Secondly, New Yorkers can prepare themselves by stocking up on some basic supplies and making what we call a ?Go Bag,? a bag that you could take with you if you had to leave home at a moment?s notice. Some of the things you should have in a ?Go Bag? are drinking water, a first-aid kit, a flashlight, any important medications that you take, essential documents, such as passports or other forms of ID, and an extra set of car and house keys.

?City government is also taking every possible step to prepare for the storm. Yesterday, we activated our Command Center at the Office of Emergency Management. We are checking in regularly with the National Weather Service.

?I spent a lot of time on the phone today with MTA Chairman Jay Walder, and we are in constant communication with the State and closely coordinating any needed resources with State officials and agencies. And I will say that the MTA and the State have been phenomenally cooperative as you would expect. We?re all in this together, and the seamless cooperation with us and the State, and us with the MTA I think comes about from an awful lot of planning that we have done over the recent period.

?The heads of all the City?s emergency-response agencies ? including NYPD, FDNY, OEM, Transportation, Health, and Buildings ? are taking steps to ensure that we have the right staff and resources for any contingency.

?We have an enormous emergency shelter system and a database of thousands of City employees who would be called upon to run evacuation centers and shelters if we needed to open them. Our response agencies have had regular drills and exercises to practice what we would do in the event of an emergency, and we are prepared to handle one.

?The Police Department is positioning, for example, 50 small boats at station houses in low-lying areas. The NYPD Special Operations Division also has several helicopters and 33 police boats at the ready.

?Our city?s public hospitals have tested their emergency generators and have topped them all off with fuel. They?ve also made sure that they have adequate medical supplies and food on hand, in case the weather disrupts deliveries.

?Our Parks Department is prepared to schedule forestry crews, inspectors, and contractors to be available on Sunday and Monday to handle emergency tree conditions. We have engaged emergency forest contractors and have the ability to activate those contracts immediately.

?We are also reviewing the flood plan for the US Open at Flushing Meadows Corona Park, and we are discussing contingencies for the World Police and Fire Games, which are scheduled to start on Friday.

?To help control flooding, the Department of Environmental Protection will have extra sewer maintenance crews out in the field. The crews will respond to highway and street flooding by clearing catch basins like the one we just saw being cleaned out in front of the church, or pumping water out of flooded sewers.

?Our Sanitation Department has instructed the mechanical street sweeper operations to pay special attention to any litter conditions near storm sewers in order to allow for a freer flow of rainwater into the storm sewer system. And our Department of Transportation is deploying crews to 26 designated flood locations to clear debris from catch basins. In addition, three Department of Transportation facilities with high likelihood of flooding will be evacuated and the equipment will be moved to higher ground.

?We expect that Irene will have an effect on our beaches, and we are urging anyone who chooses to swim in the ocean today or this weekend to be extremely cautious and to watch out for riptides. In the event of rough surf at beaches, we are prepared to close those areas to the public and move equipment. But the most dangerous thing in this city, probably, where you?re the most likely to have tragedies, is people that go swimming. Don?t go swimming if there isn?t a lifeguard there, don?t go swimming when the beaches get closed. I know some people love to go in the rough waves, it?s exciting, but it is dangerous and there?s no excitement that?s worth dying. And every year we say this, and then we still have tragedies. So please, if you have friends and neighbors or family members that are going swimming, try to convince them not to do so. It?s just better to be safe than sorry.

?To protect homeless New Yorkers from the elements, we will, you should know, double our street outreach operation and simplify the intake process at shelters. Clients will be able to enter any Homeless Services facility, including shelters and Safe Havens, without going through the usual steps of an intake center. And to be sure homebound seniors get their meals, our Department for the Aging is making sure that meal providers deliver an extra meal tomorrow, Friday, and bring the Sunday meals on Saturday before the worst of the storm hits.

?Those are just some of the actions we?re prepared to take based on what we know right now. If any New Yorker wants to know what they personally can do to prepare, the Office of Emergency Management?s hurricane readiness guide is available in 11 languages on nyc.gov or by calling 311.?

http://www.nyc.gov/portal/site/nycg...11b/pr306-11.html&cc=unused1978&rc=1194&ndi=1

Pathfinder · Aug 25, 2011

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas - Hurricane Watch for North Carolina

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas - Hurricane Watch for North Carolina

Hurricane IRENE Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 251455
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE HURRICANE HAS GONE
THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. ALTHOUGH THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND
IS LARGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...MICROWAVE AND AIRCRAFT DATA HAVE
NOT BEEN VERY CONCLUSIVE. RECENT DATA DO NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF A
SECONDARY EYEWALL AT THIS TIME. THE EYE IS A LITTLE MORE EVIDENT IN
THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT IS NOT AS CLEAR AS IT
WAS YESTERDAY MORNING. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 112 KT AND SFMR WINDS OF 90 KT...WHICH ROUGHLY
SUPPORT THE 100-KT INITIAL INTENSITY.

CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING INDICATE
THAT THE EXPECTED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS OCCURRED. A
NORTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS IRENE MOVES
THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN
IRENE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BYPASS IRENE...LEAVING THE HURRICANE IN DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND
A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD ON THIS CYCLE...AND
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED WEST AS WELL. THE NEW
FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF
THE TVCA CONSENSUS. SINCE IRENE IS SUCH A LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE UNITED STATES
EAST COAST REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK IT TAKES.

THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MAIN INFLUENCING FACTOR DURING THE
SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE EYEWALL CYCLES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT. AFTER 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE WHICH WILL LIKELY START WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...
SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT
WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 25.9N 76.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 29.5N 77.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 31.4N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 33.3N 77.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 37.8N 75.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 45.0N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 54.0N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/251455.shtml?

------------------------------------------------------------

Hurricane IRENE Public Advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 251454
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...CORE
APPROACHING ABACO ISLAND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 76.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM NNE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA
BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY. THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA BY LATE FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/251454.shtml?

Pathfinder · Aug 25, 2011

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas - Hurricane Watch for North Carolina

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas - Hurricane Watch for North Carolina

Updates from Elbow Cay (Elbow Cay is located about 4 miles East of Marsh Harbour on Great Abaco Island)

Hope Town Volunteer Fire & Rescue
Emergency Management & Information WebsiteThis site has been activated by Hope Town Fire & Rescue to keep you appraised of the current situation on Elbow Cay.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>

Hurricane Irene<o></o>
Situation Reports:
...
Thursday 25th August

03:00 EDT
Internet and telephone connections to Elbow Cay are down. Last report from Rocky Bay was wind 40kts out of the East, barometric pressure 29.7 and falling. The latest forecast has the eye of Irene over or near White Sound Thursday at 17:00 with normal high tide (+3.1) at 18:00.

07:50 EDT
Given current information, hurricane force winds can be expected over Elbow Cay from about noon today thru midnight. Meaningful situation reports are unlikely before daylight Friday. I might receive some information during the eye passage but it would necessarily be incomplete.

0900 EDT
Winds in MH (reported by Duke of Topsail) are currently 60 - 70 kts NE. Everybody safe and sound. Justin reports that "wind is quite strong out of the NE and Tahiti Hai has already lost quite a few shingles."

1120 EDT
The latest update has Irene speeding up. The eye should reach Elbow Cay about 1530 which would be half tide rising. Hopefully it will depart the area in an equally speeded up motion.

http://www.hopetownfirerescue.com/

Rocky Bay Web Cam N26.5 W077

INTERNET CONNECTION TO ROCKYBAY LOST AUG 25 00:30

http://www.rockybay.com/webcam_page_sml.htm

Pathfinder · Aug 25, 2011

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas - Hurricane Watch for North Carolina

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas - Hurricane Watch for North Carolina

<CENTER>the hydrometeorological prediction center
preliminary extended forecast discussion
</CENTER>

</PRE>PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
948 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

VALID 12Z MON AUG 29 2011 - 12Z THU SEP 01 2011

...MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE TO STRONGLY AFFECT THE EAST COAST FROM NC
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...

THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADJUST WESTWARD AS HAS
THE LAST SEVERAL NHC TRACK FORECASTS WHICH NOW HAVE EYE OF IRENE
COMING THRU THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS LATE SATURDAY BEFORE
GRAZING THE DELMARVA AND NEW JERSEY THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY. THIS POTENTIALLY COULD BE EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WITH
MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS TO SOCIETY AND COMMERCE ALONG ITS ENTIRE TRACK
WITH VERY HIGH WINDS/STORM SURGE/OCEAN OVERWASH/BEACH
EROSION/SOUND AND BAY SIDE COASTAL FLOODING AND EXTREME TIDE
POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE WILL BE
COMMON WITH GREATLY INCREASED INLAND FLOOD POTENTIAL. REFER TO THE
NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF IRENE ALONG WITH LOCAL NWS
WARNINGS/STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM NC INTO NEW ENGLAND.

ON A LARGER SCALE...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIANCES IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF A COMPLICATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPEARS TO PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN THE PATH
OF IRENE DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE
00Z GFS IS NOTICEABLY FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROUGH
AS IT REACHES THE MIDWEST ON DAY 3 WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED AS IS ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN
OFFER INTERMEDIATE SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS A PRUDENT PLACE TO LIE
UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND CAN BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY THE
MORE DENSE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK FOR ASSIMILATION INTO THE MODELS.
UNTIL THEN...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
THIS DIGGING TROF SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN REASON FOR THE ECMWFS MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 2 CYCLES OF HURRICANE IRENE AND NEEDS
TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS WE GO INTO THE SHORTER RANGE.
AGAIN...REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF IRENE.

OTHERWISE...00Z GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA INCLUDING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY DAYS 4-5...WITH THE
ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER TO LIFT THE TROUGH TOWARD CENTRAL CANADA.
HOWEVER...WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN/UKMET AND THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN
OF GFS OFFERING BETTER SUPPORT FOR A GFS-LIKE SOLUTION FOR THIS
TROUGH AND THE EVOLVING PATTERN OVER ALASKA AND NORTHEAST
PACIFIC...FOR WHICH THE ECMWF BECOMES NEARLY OUT OF PHASE WITH
OTHER GUIDANCE BY DAY 7. EARLY PRELIMS RECOMMENDED A MOSTLY
GFS-LIKE OR GEFS-LIKE SOLUTION FOR THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYS 5-7.
HOWEVER FOR UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS PREFER A BLEND OF BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ENS MEANS AS THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF MAY VERY WELL BE OVER
AMPLIFIED OVER ERN CANADA DAYS 6-7 THERE ARE ENOUGH ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS TO SKEW THE ECMWF ENS MEAN TOWARD THIS DIRECTION. PREFER
AND EVEN BLEND OF THE MEANS AT THIS TIME
JAMES/ROSENSTEIN

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

Pathfinder · Aug 25, 2011

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas - Hurricane Watch for North Carolina

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas - Hurricane Watch for North Carolina

UPDATE 1-NYC mayor: Coastal residents should move out Friday

Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:21pm EDT
By [URL="http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=joan.gralla&"]Joan Gralla[/URL]

Excerpt:

New Yorkers should start feeling the effects of Hurricane Irene early Sunday morning. It is expected to hit the city of 8.4 million people as a Category 1 storm, the lowest ranking of major storms.

The mayor made it clear that residents in coastal areas, such as Battery Park City on Manhattan's southern tip, Coney Island and the Rockaways, should not linger until he issues an evacuation order because doing so could endanger emergency workers.

Bloomberg, a political independent, said he would decide by 8 a.m. on Saturday on whether to order about a quarter of a million coastal residents to evacuate.

City shelters will open by 4 p.m. on Friday, Bloomberg said.

To keep traffic flowing, public permits for events -- fairs and block parties, for example -- were revoked for Sunday except in coastal "Zone A" areas, when they were canceled for Saturday.

On Thursday afternoon, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo declared a state of emergency, which helps the state tap aid from out of state and the federal government.

Full text:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/26/irene-newyorkcity-idUSN1E77O21Y20110826

Pathfinder · Aug 25, 2011

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas - Hurricane Watch for North Carolina

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas - Hurricane Watch for North Carolina

Heed the Warnings, Irene a Rare but Dangerous Hurricane

<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 align=right><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=277></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Updated: August 25, 2011 7:30 pm ET

- Irene is a hurricane that poses an extraordinary threat and is one that no one has yet experienced in North Carolina to the mid-Atlantic to the Northeast and New England.

- We can now narrow the projected path corridor. Confidence is growing that locations from eastern North Carolina and the eastern Mid-Atlantic states to Long Island to southern New England are all in the potential path of Hurricane Irene.

- It is becoming clear that Irene's future track will NOT be a Hurricane Earl (2010) scenario where a hurricane barely brushes the Outer Banks of North Carolina then stays well offshore.

- There is historical precedence for a hurricane impacting the major metropolitan areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast but these hurricanes are rare.

More...
http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/article/irene-rare-dangerous-hurricane_2011-08-25

Pathfinder · Aug 25, 2011

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas - Hurricane Watch for North Carolina

Re: Irene becomes a category 3 - Hurricane Warning for Bahamas - Hurricane Watch for North Carolina

Obama declares emergency for North Carolina

Federal aid authorized for state in path of Hurricane Irene

The Associated Press

Posted: Aug 25, 2011 2:03 AM ET

Last Updated: Aug 25, 2011 10:35 PM ET

U.S. President Barack Obama has declared an emergency for North Carolina as Hurricane Irene bears towards the East Coast after battering the Bahamas.

Obama issued the state of emergency for North Carolina Thursday night ahead of a forecast that the Category 3 storm will thrash the state on the weekend, bringing with it 185 km/h winds and 30 centimetres of rainfall.

There have been fears that the storm could be upgraded to a Category 4 before hitting North Carolina.

The declaration means federal aid will be opened up to supplement state and local responses to the storm. It also means the state is eligible for federal funds to help with cleanup and other needs after Irene makes landfall.

In the storm's path are up to 65 million people along the shoreline from North Carolina to New England.

More...
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/internati...ne=cyberpresse_B4_manchettes_231_accueil_POS1

Pathfinder · Aug 25, 2011

Hurricane Irene aims its fury toward the North Carolina coast

Hurricane Irene aims its fury toward the North Carolina coast

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

Hurricane IRENE Public Advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 260254
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...HURRICANE IRENE AIMS ITS FURY TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 77.3W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT FOR GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACO
ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACO ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO
THE VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND
CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH
POINT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY FRIDAY. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA
BUOY 41010 LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH...79 KM/H...
AND A WIND GUST OF 65 MPH...104 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SUBSIDING OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED
STATES EAST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND
LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TRIBUTARIES...AND THE
EASTERN SHORE.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/260254.shtml

Irene: 2.5 million people without power, new flood dangers, at least 44 deaths in 13 states

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