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Irene: 2.5 million people without power, new flood dangers, at least 44 deaths in 13 states

Pathfinder

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator
Tropical Storm IRENE Public Advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 211456
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

...IRENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 63.2W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
IS CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO
FRANCES VIEJO ON THE NORTH COAST

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...AND ST.
BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE
WILL PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AND APPROACH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA TONIGHT...AND OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3
TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/211456.shtml

-----------------------------------------------------------
Tropical Storm IRENE Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 211457
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF IRENE IS CHARACTERIZED BY WELL-DEFINED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE STORM
STILL LACKS MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...OR STRONG WINDS...OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 53 KT SO FAR...WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 45
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SINCE AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
OVER WARM WATERS...INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY AND IRENE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES HISPANIOLA.
AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO MORE THAN THE
USUAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...AS IT DEPENDS VERY MUCH ON HOW IRENE
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF THE CENTER MOVES MORE OVER
THE WATER THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...IRENE WILL
LIKELY BECOME STRONGER THAN SHOWN HERE.

THE STORM IS BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/17...BY THE FLOW
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ARE FORECAST
TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...ESPECIALLY AT
DAYS 4 TO 5. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFDL MODEL TAKES IRENE TO THE WEST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE THE HWRF MODEL TAKES IT THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS IN FLORIDA ARE ADVISED NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES
IN LONGER-RANGE FORECASTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 17.0N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 17.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 18.2N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 18.9N 70.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1200Z 19.6N 73.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/1200Z 21.5N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 25/1200Z 24.0N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 27.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/211457.shtml?
 
Re: Tropical Storm Irene expected to strengthen and pass near Puerto Rico tonight

Re: Tropical Storm Irene expected to strengthen and pass near Puerto Rico tonight

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

...IRENE APPROACHING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 63.7W
ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...ESE OF ST CROIX
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO
FRANCES VIEJO ON THE NORTH COAST

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE
WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY...NEAR OR
OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES TODAY...AND IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER PUERTO RICO INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA TONIGHT...AND OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3
TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/211731.shtml
 
Re: Tropical Storm Irene expected to strengthen and pass near Puerto Rico tonight

Re: Tropical Storm Irene expected to strengthen and pass near Puerto Rico tonight

rb-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-l.jpg

rb-l.jpg


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg
 
Re: Tropical Storm Irene expected to strengthen and pass near Puerto Rico tonight

Re: Tropical Storm Irene expected to strengthen and pass near Puerto Rico tonight

Continuing Promise Mission Team to Suspend Operations in Haiti due to Tropical Storm Irene

<!--Start If Image-->
The Continuing Promise 2011 (CP11) mission team, embarked in USNS Comfort (T-AH 20), will suspend operations in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, August 21, in anticipation of severe weather heading toward the area.

Tropical storm Irene is expected to make landfall in the vicinity of Hispaniola between Monday evening and Tuesday morning. Comfort and its crew have been directed by Commander, United States Naval Forces Southern Command to depart the area and seek safe haven until the tropical storm has passed. Comfort will remain in the area while damage assessments are being conducted.

Haiti is the ninth and final stop of the CP11 deployment, a five-month humanitarian assistance mission providing medical, dental, veterinary and engineering support to the Caribbean Basin and Central and South America.

Since its arrival to Port-au-Prince Aug. 18, the Comfort has treated approximately 1,450 patients and performed 15 surgeries.

http://haiti.usembassy.gov/
 
Re: Tropical Storm Irene expected to strengthen and pass near Puerto Rico tonight

Re: Tropical Storm Irene expected to strengthen and pass near Puerto Rico tonight

Tropical Storm Irene barrels toward Puerto Rico

</SPAN>Associated Press
Posted on August 21, 2011 at 2:41 PM

Excerpt:

In advance of Irene, Puerto Rican authorities urged islanders to secure their homes and pick up debris that high winds could turn into dangerous projectiles. Maritime officials advised people to stay away from the ocean because Irene could bring a dangerous storm surge to the coast.

"I strongly recommend that swimmers and recreational boaters avoid the ocean and that the general public stay away from shoreline rocks until the tropical storm passes and weather and surf conditions normalize," said Capt. Drew Pearson, a U.S. Coast Guard commander.

The Coast Guard closed the port in St. Croix, the largest and poorest of the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Early Sunday, the storm churned up rough surf along a group of small islands in the eastern Caribbean that includes Antigua & Barbuda, St. Kitts & Nevis, Guadeloupe, and St. Maarten.

The storm caused some flooding in low-lying areas, and several countries and territories reported scattered power outages, but there were no immediate reports of serious damage or injuries. The storm was expected to dump up to 7 inches (18 centimeters) of rain on the islands.

"We are hoping that it won't be too bad for us because we just can't take this storm," said James Henry, a fisherman on the island of Dominica who braved a gusty squall early Sunday to pull his small boat ashore.

In Antigua, the airport authority closed the V.C. Bird International Airport during the storm's passage. The tiny country of St. Kitts also closed its airport, stranding travelers who had hoped to beat the storm.

Full text:
http://www.wwltv.com/news/128147058.html
 
Tropical Storm Irene - Hurricane warning for Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra, the entire coastline of the Dominican Republic

Tropical Storm Irene - Hurricane warning for Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra, the entire coastline of the Dominican Republic

000
WTNT34 KNHC 212351
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE MOVING PAST ST. CROIX...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
SPREADING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 64.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF
IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND NEAR OR OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IRENE IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY ON MONDAY. WEAKENING IS
LIKELY LATER ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER. ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
69 MPH...111 KM/H. A PUERTO RICO SEISMIC NETWORK STATION AT
FAJARDO PUERTO RICO RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 35 MPH...
56 KM/H AND A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE DATA FROM ST. CROIX IS
995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES THIS
EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA TONIGHT...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3
TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/212351.shtml
 
Re: Hurricane Irene heading for the Southeastern Bahamas

Re: Hurricane Irene heading for the Southeastern Bahamas

Hurricane IRENE Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 220859
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

IRENE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
DESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF PUERTO
RICO...AND A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN IMAGERY FROM THE FAA
TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. ALSO...LARGE PATCHES OF DOPPLER
VELOCITY VALUES AS HIGH AS 75-82 KT AT 1000-1500 FT AND 85-91 KT
AT 2000-3000 FT HAVE BEEN INDICATED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS...WHICH EQUATES TO AT LEAST
65-KT SURFACE WINDS. SOME DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 72 KT HAVE
ALSO BEEN DETECTED AT 500-600 FT OVER WATER. AS A RESULT OF THESE
DATA...IRENE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS YIELDS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF ABOUT 290/10 KT. UPPER-AIR DATA
AT 00Z INDICATE 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE NOT CHANGED AT BERMUDA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF IRENE REMAINS QUITE STRONG. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP
IRENE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION OFF THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND JUST SKIRTING THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE SPECIFICS OF HOW LARGE A
BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT 72 HOUR AND BEYOND...WHICH WILL ALLOW
IRENE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODELS
ARE THE RIGHTMOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND KEEP IRENE
WELL EAST OF FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE UKMET AND THE GFDL MODELS ARE
THE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS AND TAKE IRENE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THE GFS AND THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
PACKED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND TAKE IRENE THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS
THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW
OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS
AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT IRENE WILL NOT INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA AS MUCH
OR AS LONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IRENE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
THE MODELS TO HAVE A VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...INCLUDING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ABOUT
1200 NMI EAST OF THE CYCLONE ACTING AS A MASS SINK. WITH IRENE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SSTS NEAR 30C AFTER 48 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS IRENE...IT
WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT
SOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME LIKE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE
FORECASTING.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE
ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 18.4N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.9N 68.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 19.7N 70.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1800Z 20.4N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/0600Z 21.3N 74.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 24.0N 77.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 30.9N 81.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/220859.shtml?
-------------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane IRENE Public Advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 221302
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
900 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE HEADING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 67.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ENE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA HAS BEEN
REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* ALL OF HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE IS MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO AND AT
900 AM AST...1300 UTC...THE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
150 MILES...240 KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY. THE
HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS
WELL AS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/221302.shtml
 
Re: Hurricane Irene heading for the Southeastern Bahamas

Re: Hurricane Irene heading for the Southeastern Bahamas

Posted on Monday, 08.22.11


Hurricane Irene threatens South Florida

​
By CURTIS MORGAN​


Excerpt:​

Rain bands and gusty winds flood streets and left tens of thousands without power outages in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and shut down the airport in San Juan, packed with passengers stranded by canceled flights.​

...​


?It would not surprise me if this cyclone became a major hurricane at some time during its lifetime,?? wrote senior hurricane specialist Stacy Steward in the center?s 5 a.m. analysis.

Haiti and the Dominican Republic were bracing for impacts. The Dominican Republic, which saw bridges and roads washed away by Emily, could again see damaging deluges.​

In Port-au-Prince, the government put residents on red alert and urged the half-million still living in makeshift tent communities a year after a devastating earthquake to seek shelter with friends and family... ​

 
Re: Hurricane Irene heading for the Southeastern Bahamas

Re: Hurricane Irene heading for the Southeastern Bahamas

Irene May Strike Southeast US as a Major Hurricane

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
Aug 22, 2011; 4:22 AM ET

"[A track to the Carolina coast] would give Irene time to...become an even greater danger to lives and property at landfall."

Irene remains destined to strike the southeastern United States later this week as a major hurricane. Residents from Florida's east coast to North Carolina are urged to begin preparations today.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is expecting Irene to target the Southeast coast as a strengthening hurricane after emerging from the Bahamas on Thursday.

More...
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/54053/irene-destined-for-us.asp?partner=accuweather
 
Re: Hurricane Irene heading for the Southeastern Bahamas

Re: Hurricane Irene heading for the Southeastern Bahamas

<CENTER>
square_green_sm.jpg
<= 6 hrs. old,
square_yellow_sm.jpg
<= 12 hrs. old,
square_red_sm.jpg
> 12 hrs. old</CENTER><CENTER><TABLE border=0><TBODY><TR><TH><TABLE border=0><TBODY><TR><TH>09L.IRENE, TRACK_VIS, 22 AUG 2011 1410Z </TH><TH align=middle><FORM name=clockFormGMT action=POST><INPUT value=14:33:37 size=8 name=digits>UTC (Z)



</TH></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TH><TH><!-- Start of popup_info_training_buttons-->Tutorials:
Overview
COMET

<!-- End of popup_info_training_buttons-->


</TH></TR><TR><TH>Forecast by: National Hurricane Center
Graphic by: Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center



</TH><TH></TH></TR><TR><TH><!-- ################################################################################################### -->Latest ATCF Track: smal092011.11082206.gi






</TH><TH>
Latest vis/geo/1km_zoom/20110822.1410



</TH></TR><TR><TH colSpan=2>
(Click product for full sized image)


</TH></TR></FORM></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER>http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
 
Hurricane Irene heading for the Southeastern Bahamas - Predicted to become a major hurricane

Hurricane Irene heading for the Southeastern Bahamas - Predicted to become a major hurricane

Hurricane IRENE Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 221504
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. HOWEVER THE WINDS WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS AROUND 988 MB IN THE LAST
CENTER DROPSONDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70
KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS NOT
FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AND
THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE... THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND MAKES IRENE A
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IN
FACT...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. IRENE IS BECOMING
A LARGE CYCLONE...AND BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND 160 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. IRENE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST...BUT
STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH IT IS
TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE CURRENT GUIDANCE LESSENS THE THREAT
TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4
TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE
FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 19.2N 67.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 19.9N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 20.5N 71.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 21.2N 73.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 22.0N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 28.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 32.5N 80.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/221504.shtml?

------------------------------------------------------

Hurricane IRENE Public Advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 221503
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 67.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK THE CORE OF IRENE SHOULD BE PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AND REACH THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN PUERTO
RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LATER TODAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/221503.shtml?
 
Re: Hurricane Irene heading for the Southeastern Bahamas - Forecast to become a major hurricane

Re: Hurricane Irene heading for the Southeastern Bahamas - Forecast to become a major hurricane

Irene Marks the First Hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic Season - FEMA Urges Residents to Be Prepared

Visit Ready.gov or Listo.gov for tips on creating your family emergency plan and putting together an emergency supply kit.

Release Date: August 22, 2011
Release Number: HQ-11-130

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- As Hurricane Irene intensifies, the Federal Emergency Management Agency is coordinating federal response efforts to support territory and local officials in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, while urging families along coastal areas of the southeastern U.S. to closely monitor the storm and to take steps to prepare for potential severe weather in the coming days.

According to the National Weather Service, earlier today Irene strengthened into the first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. At the direction of President Obama and Department of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, FEMA has been closely monitoring the storm through its regional offices in New York City, Atlanta and its Caribbean Area Office in Puerto Rico, and remains in constant contact and coordination with emergency management officials in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. FEMA has also been proactively reaching out to states along the Gulf Coast and East Coast as they prepare for Irene.

"FEMA, along with the entire federal family, is closely monitoring Hurricane Irene, and is coordinating with all of our state and territorial partners that have or could potentially be impacted by this storm. We stand ready to support the areas that have already been impacted and encourage those residents to continue listening to the instructions of their local officials," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "For residents in states that may be affected later this week, it's critical that you take this storm seriously and take steps now to prepare your families, homes and businesses. Visit Ready.gov or Listo.gov to learn how."

According to the National Weather Service, Hurricane Irene could impact the southeastern U.S. later this week. Read the most recent forecast from the National Weather Service's National Hurricane Center.

FEMA encourages everyone in the impacted areas to continue to monitor weather conditions and listen to the direction of local and territory officials.

In advance of the storm, FEMA proactively deployed regional Incident Management Assistance Teams to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to coordinate with territory and local officials to identify needs and possible shortfalls impacting potential disaster response and recovery efforts. Additionally, FEMA has embedded staff in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico emergency operations centers, to further strengthen coordination.

At all times, FEMA maintains commodities, including millions of liters of water, millions of meals and hundreds of thousands of blankets, strategically located at distribution centers throughout the United States and its territories. In Puerto Rico, for instance, FEMA has more than 200,000 liters of water, more than 400,000 meals and more than 1,400 cots and blankets. These commodities are meant to supplement territorial resources if needed, but it's critical that individuals and families build their own emergency supply kits, so that in the event of a disaster, state and local resources can be focused on our most vulnerable residents.

FEMA encourages everyone, regardless of whether they live in a hurricane-prone area, to take steps to ensure their family, homes and businesses are prepared for a possible emergency. Important items to have ready in case of an emergency include a battery-powered radio (like a NOAA Weather Radio), flashlight, extra batteries, medicines, non-perishable food, hand-operated can opener, utility knife and first aid supplies. Important documents, such as medical records, contracts, property deeds, leases, banking records, insurance records and birth certificates, should be copied and kept in a safe place.

As is always the case, state and local officials make decisions on issuing evacuation orders, so remember to listen to the direction of your local officials and be sure to know your evacuation route in case evacuation orders are given.

For more information on individual and family preparedness, visit www.Ready.gov or www.Listo.gov. Information can also be found on your smartphone at m.fema.gov.

Follow FEMA online at blog.fema.gov, www.twitter.com/fema, www.facebook.com/fema, and www.youtube.com/fema. Also, follow Administrator Craig Fugate's activities at www.twitter.com/craigatfema.

The social media links provided are for reference only. FEMA does not endorse any non-government websites, companies or applications.

FEMA's mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.

Last Modified: Monday, 22-Aug-2011 14:46:52

http://www.fema.gov/news/newsrelease.fema?id=57328
 
Re: Hurricane Irene heading for the Southeastern Bahamas - Forecast to become a major hurricane

Re: Hurricane Irene heading for the Southeastern Bahamas - Forecast to become a major hurricane

Hurricane IRENE Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 230300
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

AFTER DEEPENING QUICKLY EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE INTENSITY OF
IRENE APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF A BIT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 980 MB ...AND MAXIMUM WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED SINCE THE EARLIER MAXIMUM OF 106 KT AT 850 MB.
THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
OVERALL THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...
WITH A LARGE CDO FORMING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER AND THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTING A CLOSED EYEWALL. SOUTHERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 10
KT IS PRESENT OVER IRENE ACCORDING TO SATELLITE ANALYSIS FROM
UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SPECIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS
IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS AND REACHING A
PEAK OF 115 KT IN 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS AFTER THAT TIME.

AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THAT THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED
A BIT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/10. OVERALL THE
TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED...AS IRENE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO ON THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED EAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL LIFT OUT WITHIN 24
HOURS...LEAVING A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IRENE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD
AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY DAYS 2 AND 3. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
TRACK OF IRENE APPEARS TO BE SENSITIVE TO THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES/CANADIAN BORDER. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME RUN-TO-RUN
VARIABILITY IN HOW MUCH THESE SHORTWAVES WILL AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN
THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WILL BE
CRITICAL TO HOW SOON IRENE TURNS NORTHWARD OR EVEN EAST OF DUE
NORTH AT DAYS 4 AND 5. OVERALL...THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE
HAS DECREASED THIS CYCLE...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE SLIGHT
RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION AND A SLIGHT WESTWARD
SHIFT IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS RESULTS IN ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS A SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWING THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE
THAT KEEPS THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE AT DAY 5.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR
AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.

OF NOTE...SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE FLIGHTS FROM THE NOAA G-IV AND AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE C-130 AIRCRAFT PROVIDED NUMEROUS DROPSONDES FOR
ASSIMILATION INTO THE 0000 UTC MODEL CYCLE. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE
THE ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND AND UPSTREAM OF IRENE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 19.9N 69.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 20.4N 70.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 21.1N 72.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 22.2N 74.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 23.5N 75.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 26.5N 78.0W 115 KT 135 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 30.0N 79.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 33.5N 78.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/230300.shtml?

----------------------------------------------------------

Hurricane IRENE Public Advisory
000
WTNT34 KNHC 230258
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 69.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9
TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. STORM SURGE
WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/230258.shtml?
 
Re: Hurricane Irene heading for the Southeastern Bahamas - Forecast to become a major hurricane

Re: Hurricane Irene heading for the Southeastern Bahamas - Forecast to become a major hurricane

Hurricane IRENE Forecast Discussion
000
WTNT44 KNHC 230838
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

SMOOTHING THROUGH ALL OF THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SINCE IRENE MOVED OFF
THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO MORE THAN 18 HOURS AGO YIELDS A LONG TERM
MOTION OF 295/10 KT...WHICH IS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE
23/00Z G-IV JET AIRCRAFT AND AIR FORCE C-130 DROPSONDE DATA APPEAR
TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN THE MODELS...AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLY LESS
DIFFERENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW. THE OVERWHELMING
CONSENSUS IS THAT IRENE WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH A DEVELOPING BREAK IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
LIES VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.

AN EARLIER RECON FLIGHT INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD ONLY FALLEN BY 2
MB DOWN TO 978 MB...AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS A RESULT...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 85 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.
IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SSTS NEAR 30C. THAT COMBINATION...ALONG WITH
EXPANDING OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...SHOULD ALLOW FOR IRENE TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE
CLEARS THE EFFECTS OF HISPANIOLA...AND PROBABLY MAINTAIN MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 5-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL MODEL INTENSITY
FORECASTS...AND CONVERSION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURES DEPICTED IN THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED BASED ON A BLEND OF RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS...SFMR WINDS...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

IRENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGER THAN AVERAGE HURRICANE. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR
AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 20.3N 70.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 20.9N 71.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 73.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 22.9N 74.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 24.3N 76.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 28.0N 78.0W 115 KT 135 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 31.5N 78.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 35.0N 78.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/230838.shtml?

-----------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane IRENE Public Advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 231150
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...CORE OF IRENE HEADED TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 70.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CORE OF IRENE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/231150.shtml?
 
Re: Hurricane Irene heading for the Southeastern Bahamas - Forecast to become a major hurricane

Re: Hurricane Irene heading for the Southeastern Bahamas - Forecast to become a major hurricane

Haiti - Irene : Heavy rain and winds from North to South
23/08/2011 11:23:06


<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD>
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</TD><TD>
tr.gif
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Currently located to 20.5 degrees north and 71 degrees West, Irene is currently moving at 19 km/h (12 mph) along a trajectory West Northwest, its center is currently located 78 km (48 mi) Esat of the Haitian border. This motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on wednesday.

This system should pass off the coast this afternoon, although the effects are already widely felt this morning in the north-east of the country, with sustained winds (maximum) of 160 km/h (100 mi/h), with higher gusts. Winds extend outward up to 85 km (50 mi) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 335 km (205 mi), of the center. The winds should be felt throughout the country.

Rainfall on the South
The National Meteorological Center (CNM) indicates that Irene can produce between 10 to 15 cm of rain in the plains, with excess rainfall in mountainous regions of North and central of Haiti today. A large area of precipitation is developing in the south of the Dominican Republic, giving currently very heavy rain, it could also reach the southern region of Haiti in the coming hours.

More...
http://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-3647-haiti-irene-heavy-rain-and-winds-from-north-to-south.html
 
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