tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Epidemiol Infect. 2012 Jul 16:1-12. [Epub ahead of print]
Investigation into sampling strategies in response to potential outbreaks of low pathogenicity notifiable avian influenza initiated in commercial duck holdings in Great Britain.
Arnold ME, Irvine RM, Tearne O, Rae D, Cook AJ, Breed AC.
Source
Biomathematics and Statistics, Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency (AHVLA), New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, UK.
Abstract
SUMMARY The aim of this study was to evaluate potential sampling strategies for detection of infected flocks that could be applied during an outbreak of low pathogenicity notifiable avian influenza (LPNAI) initiated in duck holdings, following initial detection. A simulation model of avian influenza virus transmission and spread within and between holdings, respectively, was used to predict the impact on the size and duration of an outbreak of (i) changing the tracing window within which premises that might be the source of infection or that may have been infected by the index premises were sampled and (ii) changing the number of birds sampled in the flock being tested. It has shown that there is potential benefit in increasing the tracing window in terms of reducing the likelihood of a large outbreak. It has also shown that there is comparatively little benefit from increasing the number of birds sampled per flock.
PMID:
22793646
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22793646
Investigation into sampling strategies in response to potential outbreaks of low pathogenicity notifiable avian influenza initiated in commercial duck holdings in Great Britain.
Arnold ME, Irvine RM, Tearne O, Rae D, Cook AJ, Breed AC.
Source
Biomathematics and Statistics, Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency (AHVLA), New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, UK.
Abstract
SUMMARY The aim of this study was to evaluate potential sampling strategies for detection of infected flocks that could be applied during an outbreak of low pathogenicity notifiable avian influenza (LPNAI) initiated in duck holdings, following initial detection. A simulation model of avian influenza virus transmission and spread within and between holdings, respectively, was used to predict the impact on the size and duration of an outbreak of (i) changing the tracing window within which premises that might be the source of infection or that may have been infected by the index premises were sampled and (ii) changing the number of birds sampled in the flock being tested. It has shown that there is potential benefit in increasing the tracing window in terms of reducing the likelihood of a large outbreak. It has also shown that there is comparatively little benefit from increasing the number of birds sampled per flock.
PMID:
22793646
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22793646