tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Epidemiology. 2015 Oct 1. [Epub ahead of print]
[h=1]Interpreting sero-epidemiologic studies of influenza in a context of non-bracketing sera.[/h] Tsang TK[SUP]1[/SUP], Fang VJ, Perera RA, Ip DK, Leung GM, Peiris JS, Cauchemez S, Cowling BJ.
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]BACKGROUND:[/h] In influenza epidemiology, analysis of paired sera collected from people before and after influenza seasons has been used for decades to study the cumulative incidence of influenza virus infections in populations. However, interpretation becomes challenging when sera are collected after the start or before the end of an epidemic, and do not neatly bracket the epidemic.
[h=4]METHODS:[/h] Serum samples were collected longitudinally in a community-based study. Most participants provided their first serum after the start of circulation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09virus in 2009.We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to correct for non-bracketing sera and estimate the cumulative incidence of infection from the serological data and surveillance data in Hong Kong.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] We analyzed 4843 sera from 2097 unvaccinated participants in the study, collected from April 2009 through December 2010. After accounting for non-bracketing, we estimated that the cumulative incidence of H1N1pdm09 virus infection was 45% (95% credible interval, CI: 40%, 49%), 17% (95% CI: 13%, 20%) and 11% (95% CI: 6%, 18%) for children0-18y, adults 19-50y and older adults <50y respectively. Including all available data substantially increased precision compared to a simpler analysis based only on sera collected at 6-month intervals in a subset of participants.
[h=4]CONCLUSIONS:[/h] We developed a framework for the analysis of antibody titers that accounted for the timing of sera collection with respect to influenza activity and permitted robust estimation of the cumulative incidence of infection during an epidemic.
PMID: 26427725 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
[h=1]Interpreting sero-epidemiologic studies of influenza in a context of non-bracketing sera.[/h] Tsang TK[SUP]1[/SUP], Fang VJ, Perera RA, Ip DK, Leung GM, Peiris JS, Cauchemez S, Cowling BJ.
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]BACKGROUND:[/h] In influenza epidemiology, analysis of paired sera collected from people before and after influenza seasons has been used for decades to study the cumulative incidence of influenza virus infections in populations. However, interpretation becomes challenging when sera are collected after the start or before the end of an epidemic, and do not neatly bracket the epidemic.
[h=4]METHODS:[/h] Serum samples were collected longitudinally in a community-based study. Most participants provided their first serum after the start of circulation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09virus in 2009.We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to correct for non-bracketing sera and estimate the cumulative incidence of infection from the serological data and surveillance data in Hong Kong.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] We analyzed 4843 sera from 2097 unvaccinated participants in the study, collected from April 2009 through December 2010. After accounting for non-bracketing, we estimated that the cumulative incidence of H1N1pdm09 virus infection was 45% (95% credible interval, CI: 40%, 49%), 17% (95% CI: 13%, 20%) and 11% (95% CI: 6%, 18%) for children0-18y, adults 19-50y and older adults <50y respectively. Including all available data substantially increased precision compared to a simpler analysis based only on sera collected at 6-month intervals in a subset of participants.
[h=4]CONCLUSIONS:[/h] We developed a framework for the analysis of antibody titers that accounted for the timing of sera collection with respect to influenza activity and permitted robust estimation of the cumulative incidence of infection during an epidemic.
PMID: 26427725 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]