tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Int J Infect Dis
. 2020 Oct 7;S1201-9712(20)32210-4.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.007. Online ahead of print.
Spatial variability in reproduction number and doubling time across two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, February to July 2020
Eunha Shim[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Amna Tariq[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Gerardo Chowell[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Objectives: In South Korea, 13,745 cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have been reported as of 19 July, 2020. To examine the spatiotemporal changes in the transmission potential, we present regional estimates of the doubling time and reproduction number (R[SUB]t[/SUB]) of COVID-19 in the country.
Methods: Daily series of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the most affected regions were extracted from publicly available sources. We employed established mathematical and statistical methods to investigate the time-varying reproduction numbers of the COVID-19 in Korea and its doubling time, respectively.
Results: At the regional level, Seoul and Gyeonggi Province have experienced the first peak of COVID-19 in early March, followed by the second wave in early June, withR[SUB]t[/SUB] exceeding 3.0 and mean doubling time ranging from 3.6 to 10.1 days. As of 19 July, 2020, Gyeongbuk Province and Daegu are yet to experience a second wave of the disease, where the mean R[SUB]t[/SUB] reached 3.5-4.4 and doubling time ranging from 2.8 to 4.6 days during the first wave.
Conclusions: Our findings support the effectiveness of control measures against COVID-19 in Korea. However, the easing of the restrictions imposed by the government in May 2020 facilitated a second wave in the greater Seoul area.
Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; Reproduction number; Republic of Korea; Seoul; Social distancing.
. 2020 Oct 7;S1201-9712(20)32210-4.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.007. Online ahead of print.
Spatial variability in reproduction number and doubling time across two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, February to July 2020
Eunha Shim[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Amna Tariq[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Gerardo Chowell[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33038555
- DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.007
Abstract
Objectives: In South Korea, 13,745 cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have been reported as of 19 July, 2020. To examine the spatiotemporal changes in the transmission potential, we present regional estimates of the doubling time and reproduction number (R[SUB]t[/SUB]) of COVID-19 in the country.
Methods: Daily series of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the most affected regions were extracted from publicly available sources. We employed established mathematical and statistical methods to investigate the time-varying reproduction numbers of the COVID-19 in Korea and its doubling time, respectively.
Results: At the regional level, Seoul and Gyeonggi Province have experienced the first peak of COVID-19 in early March, followed by the second wave in early June, withR[SUB]t[/SUB] exceeding 3.0 and mean doubling time ranging from 3.6 to 10.1 days. As of 19 July, 2020, Gyeongbuk Province and Daegu are yet to experience a second wave of the disease, where the mean R[SUB]t[/SUB] reached 3.5-4.4 and doubling time ranging from 2.8 to 4.6 days during the first wave.
Conclusions: Our findings support the effectiveness of control measures against COVID-19 in Korea. However, the easing of the restrictions imposed by the government in May 2020 facilitated a second wave in the greater Seoul area.
Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; Reproduction number; Republic of Korea; Seoul; Social distancing.