tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Int J Infect Dis
. 2021 Jan 27;S1201-9712(21)00069-2.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.01.058. Online ahead of print.
Moving Epidemic Method applied on influenza surveillance in Guangdong, China
Min Kang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xiaohua Tan[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Meiyun Ye[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Yu Liao[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Tie Song[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Shixing Tang[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Objectives: The moving epidemic method (MEM) has been implemented well for assessing seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions. We used the MEM to establish epidemic threshold for influenza in Guangdong, a subtropical province in China.
Methods: Influenza virology surveillance data from 2011/2012 to 2017/2018 seasons in Guangdong were applied in MEM to calculate the epidemic threshold and timeliness of the detection of epidemic for 2018/2019 influenza season. Weekly positive proportion of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), B/Victoria-lineage and B/Yamagata-lineage were separately adapted to calculate the subtype-specific epidemic threshold. The performance of MEM was evaluated using a cross-validation procedure.
Results: For 2018/2019 influenza season, the epidemic threshold of weekly positive proportion was 15.08%. The timeliness of epidemic detection for 2018/2019 season was 1 week. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, B/Yamagata-lineage and B/Victoria-lineage prevailed during winter and spring and their epidemic threshold was 5.12%, 4.53% and 4.38% respectively. Influenza A(H3N2) was active in the summer with an epidemic threshold of 11.99%.
Conclusions: The MEM using influenza virology surveillance data stratified by types of influenza virus was implemented effectively in Guangdong, China. This study provided a practical manner for subtropical regions to establish local influenza epidemic threshold.
Keywords: MEM; Seasonal influenza; Surveillance.
. 2021 Jan 27;S1201-9712(21)00069-2.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.01.058. Online ahead of print.
Moving Epidemic Method applied on influenza surveillance in Guangdong, China
Min Kang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xiaohua Tan[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Meiyun Ye[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Yu Liao[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Tie Song[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Shixing Tang[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33515775
- DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.01.058
Abstract
Objectives: The moving epidemic method (MEM) has been implemented well for assessing seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions. We used the MEM to establish epidemic threshold for influenza in Guangdong, a subtropical province in China.
Methods: Influenza virology surveillance data from 2011/2012 to 2017/2018 seasons in Guangdong were applied in MEM to calculate the epidemic threshold and timeliness of the detection of epidemic for 2018/2019 influenza season. Weekly positive proportion of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), B/Victoria-lineage and B/Yamagata-lineage were separately adapted to calculate the subtype-specific epidemic threshold. The performance of MEM was evaluated using a cross-validation procedure.
Results: For 2018/2019 influenza season, the epidemic threshold of weekly positive proportion was 15.08%. The timeliness of epidemic detection for 2018/2019 season was 1 week. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, B/Yamagata-lineage and B/Victoria-lineage prevailed during winter and spring and their epidemic threshold was 5.12%, 4.53% and 4.38% respectively. Influenza A(H3N2) was active in the summer with an epidemic threshold of 11.99%.
Conclusions: The MEM using influenza virology surveillance data stratified by types of influenza virus was implemented effectively in Guangdong, China. This study provided a practical manner for subtropical regions to establish local influenza epidemic threshold.
Keywords: MEM; Seasonal influenza; Surveillance.