tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
[h=1]Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak[/h] Shi Zhao[SUP]a[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP][SUP]b[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]
[SUP],[/SUP]
Correspondence information about the author Shi Zhao
Email the author Shi Zhao
, Qianyin Lin[SUP]c[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]Email the author Qianyin Lin
, Jinjun Ran[SUP]d[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]Email the author Jinjun Ran
, Salihu S Musa[SUP]e[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]Email the author Salihu S Musa
, Guangpu Yang[SUP]f[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP][SUP]g[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]Email the author Guangpu Yang
, Weiming Wang[SUP]h[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]Email the author Weiming Wang
, Yijun Lou[SUP]d[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]Email the author Yijun Lou
, Daozhou Gao[SUP]i[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]Email the author Daozhou Gao
, Lin Yang[SUP]j[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]Email the author Lin Yang
, Daihai He[SUP]e[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]
[SUP],[/SUP]Correspondence information about the author Daihai HeEmail the author Daihai He
, Maggie H Wang[SUP]a[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP][SUP]b[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]Email the author Maggie H Wang
Open Access [h=2]Highlights[/h]
[h=2]Abstract[/h] [h=3]Backgrounds[/h] An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city of China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number,R[SUB]0[/SUB], of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak.
[h=3]Methods[/h] Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (γ), we estimated R[SUB]0[/SUB] by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI.
[h=3]Findings[/h] The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the meanR[SUB]0[/SUB] ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96-2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89-4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of R[SUB]0.[/SUB]
[h=3]Conclusion[/h] The mean estimate ofR[SUB]0[/SUB] for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30053-9/fulltext
Correspondence information about the author Shi ZhaoEmail the author Shi Zhao, Qianyin Lin[SUP]c[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]
Email the author Qianyin Lin, Jinjun Ran[SUP]d[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]
Email the author Jinjun Ran, Salihu S Musa[SUP]e[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]
Email the author Salihu S Musa, Guangpu Yang[SUP]f[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP][SUP]g[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]
Email the author Guangpu Yang, Weiming Wang[SUP]h[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]
Email the author Weiming Wang, Yijun Lou[SUP]d[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]
Email the author Yijun Lou, Daozhou Gao[SUP]i[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]
Email the author Daozhou Gao, Lin Yang[SUP]j[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]
Email the author Lin Yang, Daihai He[SUP]e[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]
Correspondence information about the author Daihai HeEmail the author Daihai He, Maggie H Wang[SUP]a[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP][SUP]b[/SUP][SUP],[/SUP]
Email the author Maggie H WangOpen Access [h=2]Highlights[/h]
- • The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia has caused 2033 confirmed cases including 56 deaths in mainland China by 2020-01-26 17:06.
- • We aim to estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan China using the exponential growth model method.
- • The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R[SUB]0[/SUB] ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96-2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89-4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate.
- • Changes in reporting likely occurred and should be taken into account in the estimation of R[SUB]0[/SUB].
[h=2]Abstract[/h] [h=3]Backgrounds[/h] An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city of China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number,R[SUB]0[/SUB], of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak.
[h=3]Methods[/h] Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (γ), we estimated R[SUB]0[/SUB] by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI.
[h=3]Findings[/h] The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the meanR[SUB]0[/SUB] ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96-2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89-4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of R[SUB]0.[/SUB]
[h=3]Conclusion[/h] The mean estimate ofR[SUB]0[/SUB] for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30053-9/fulltext