tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Int J Infect Dis
. 2020 Oct 16;S1201-9712(20)32231-1.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.027. Online ahead of print.
Characteristics of COVID-19 epidemic and control measures to curb transmission in Malaysia
Chris Fook Sheng Ng[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xerxes T Seposo[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Meng Ling Moi[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Muhammad Abdul Basit Ahmad Tajudin[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Lina Madaniyazi[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Mazrura Sahani[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
The first wave of COVID-19 epidemic began in late January in Malaysia and ended with a very small final size. The second wave of infections broke out in late February and grew rapidly in the first 3 weeks. Authorities in the country responded quickly with a series of control strategies collectively known as the Movement Control Order (MCO) with different levels of intensity matching the progression of the epidemic. We examined the characteristics of the second wave and discussed the key control strategies implemented in the country. In the second wave, the epidemic doubled in size every 3.8 days (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.3, 4.5) in the first month and decayed slowly after that with a halving time of approximately 3 weeks. The time-varying reproduction number R[SUB]t[/SUB] peaked at 3.1 (95% credible interval: 2.7, 3.5) in the 3rd week, declined sharply thereafter and stayed below 1 in the last 3 weeks of April, indicating low transmissibility approximately 3 weeks after the MCO. Experience of the country suggests that adaptive triggering of distancing policies combined with a population-wide movement control measure can be effective in suppressing transmission and preventing a rebound.
Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; Prevention and control; Reproduction number; Transmission.
. 2020 Oct 16;S1201-9712(20)32231-1.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.027. Online ahead of print.
Characteristics of COVID-19 epidemic and control measures to curb transmission in Malaysia
Chris Fook Sheng Ng[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xerxes T Seposo[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Meng Ling Moi[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Muhammad Abdul Basit Ahmad Tajudin[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Lina Madaniyazi[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Mazrura Sahani[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33075527
- PMCID: PMC7567666
- DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.027
Abstract
The first wave of COVID-19 epidemic began in late January in Malaysia and ended with a very small final size. The second wave of infections broke out in late February and grew rapidly in the first 3 weeks. Authorities in the country responded quickly with a series of control strategies collectively known as the Movement Control Order (MCO) with different levels of intensity matching the progression of the epidemic. We examined the characteristics of the second wave and discussed the key control strategies implemented in the country. In the second wave, the epidemic doubled in size every 3.8 days (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.3, 4.5) in the first month and decayed slowly after that with a halving time of approximately 3 weeks. The time-varying reproduction number R[SUB]t[/SUB] peaked at 3.1 (95% credible interval: 2.7, 3.5) in the 3rd week, declined sharply thereafter and stayed below 1 in the last 3 weeks of April, indicating low transmissibility approximately 3 weeks after the MCO. Experience of the country suggests that adaptive triggering of distancing policies combined with a population-wide movement control measure can be effective in suppressing transmission and preventing a rebound.
Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; Prevention and control; Reproduction number; Transmission.