tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Int J Infect Dis
. 2021 Dec 10;S1201-9712(21)01213-3.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.12.319. Online ahead of print.
Age dependence of the natural history of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): An analysis of Diamond Princess data
Tetsuro Kobayashi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Keita Yoshii[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Natalie M Linton[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Motoi Suzuki[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Hiroshi Nishiura[SUP] 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: Following an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the cruise ship Diamond Princess, passengers and crew were followed up to determine prognosis. We examined the epidemiological determinants of COVID-19 natural history using these follow-up data.
Methods: We analysed infection status, diagnosis, clinical symptoms and prognosis for all passengers and crew members on the Diamond Princess. We estimated the risk of infection associated with exposure within cabin rooms as well as the risks of various clinical manifestations of disease, along with their epidemiological determinants.
Results: The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of infection for individuals tested by PCR on or after 12 February 2020 compared with before this date was 0.53 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.39-0.72], reflecting decreased transmission during onboard quarantine. Among infected individuals, older age was associated with elevated odds of symptomatic illness (aOR 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00-1.02), severe disease (aOR 1.08, 95% CI: 1.05-1.12), and death (aOR 1.12, 95% CI: 1.05-1.21).
Conclusions: Severe COVID-19 disease, death, and symptomatic illness were more frequent among older individuals on Diamond Princess. Older elderly cases (age ≥80 years) had the highest risks of severe disease and death. Inter-room transmission was successfully prevented by the onboard quarantine.
Keywords: Asymptomatic ratio; Case fatality ratio; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Natural history; Secondary attack rate; Secondary transmission.
. 2021 Dec 10;S1201-9712(21)01213-3.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.12.319. Online ahead of print.
Age dependence of the natural history of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): An analysis of Diamond Princess data
Tetsuro Kobayashi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Keita Yoshii[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Natalie M Linton[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Motoi Suzuki[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Hiroshi Nishiura[SUP] 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34902585
- DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.12.319
Abstract
Background: Following an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the cruise ship Diamond Princess, passengers and crew were followed up to determine prognosis. We examined the epidemiological determinants of COVID-19 natural history using these follow-up data.
Methods: We analysed infection status, diagnosis, clinical symptoms and prognosis for all passengers and crew members on the Diamond Princess. We estimated the risk of infection associated with exposure within cabin rooms as well as the risks of various clinical manifestations of disease, along with their epidemiological determinants.
Results: The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of infection for individuals tested by PCR on or after 12 February 2020 compared with before this date was 0.53 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.39-0.72], reflecting decreased transmission during onboard quarantine. Among infected individuals, older age was associated with elevated odds of symptomatic illness (aOR 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00-1.02), severe disease (aOR 1.08, 95% CI: 1.05-1.12), and death (aOR 1.12, 95% CI: 1.05-1.21).
Conclusions: Severe COVID-19 disease, death, and symptomatic illness were more frequent among older individuals on Diamond Princess. Older elderly cases (age ≥80 years) had the highest risks of severe disease and death. Inter-room transmission was successfully prevented by the onboard quarantine.
Keywords: Asymptomatic ratio; Case fatality ratio; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Natural history; Secondary attack rate; Secondary transmission.
