tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Innovation (N Y)
. 2020 May 21;1(1):100006.
doi: 10.1016/j.xinn.2020.04.006. Epub 2020 May 20.
What Is Required to Prevent a Second Major Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 upon Lifting Quarantine in Wuhan City, China
Lei Zhang[SUP] 1 2 3 4 [/SUP], Mingwang Shen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xiaomeng Ma[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Shu Su[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wenfeng Gong[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Jing Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yusha Tao[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Zhuoru Zou[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Rui Zhao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Joseph T F Lau[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Wei Li[SUP] 9 [/SUP], Feng Liu[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Kai Ye[SUP] 11 12 13 14 [/SUP], Youfa Wang[SUP] 15 [/SUP], Guihua Zhuang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Christopher K Fairley[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: The Chinese government implemented a metropolitan-wide quarantine of Wuhan city on 23[SUP]rd[/SUP] January 2020 to curb the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19. Lifting of this quarantine is imminent. We modelled the effects of two key health interventions on the epidemic when the quarantine is lifted.
Methods: We constructed a compartmental dynamic model to forecast the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic at different quarantine lifting dates and investigated the impact of different rates of public contact and facial mask usage on the epidemic.
Results: We projected a declining trend of the COVID-19 epidemic if the current quarantine strategy continues, and Wuhan would record the last new confirmed cases in late April 2020. At the end of the epidemic, 65,733 (45,722-99,015) individuals would be infected by the virus, among which 16,166 (11,238-24,603, 24.6%) were through public contacts, 45,996 (31,892-69,565, 69.7%) through household contact, and 3,571 (2,521-5,879, 5.5%) through hospital contacts (including 778 (553-1,154) non-COVID-19 patients and 2,786 (1,969-4,791) medical staff). A total of 2,821 (1,634-6,361) would die of COVID-19 related pneumonia in Wuhan. Early quarantine lifting on 21[SUP]st[/SUP] March is viable only if Wuhan residents sustain a high facial mask usage of ≥85% and a pre-quarantine level public contact rate. Delaying city resumption to mid/late April would relax the requirement of facial mask usage to ≥75% at the same contact rate.
Conclusions: The prevention of a second epidemic is viable after the metropolitan-wide quarantine is lifted but requires a sustaining high facial mask usage and a low public contact rate.
. 2020 May 21;1(1):100006.
doi: 10.1016/j.xinn.2020.04.006. Epub 2020 May 20.
What Is Required to Prevent a Second Major Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 upon Lifting Quarantine in Wuhan City, China
Lei Zhang[SUP] 1 2 3 4 [/SUP], Mingwang Shen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xiaomeng Ma[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Shu Su[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wenfeng Gong[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Jing Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yusha Tao[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Zhuoru Zou[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Rui Zhao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Joseph T F Lau[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Wei Li[SUP] 9 [/SUP], Feng Liu[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Kai Ye[SUP] 11 12 13 14 [/SUP], Youfa Wang[SUP] 15 [/SUP], Guihua Zhuang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Christopher K Fairley[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33458717
- PMCID: PMC7237941
- DOI: 10.1016/j.xinn.2020.04.006
Abstract
Background: The Chinese government implemented a metropolitan-wide quarantine of Wuhan city on 23[SUP]rd[/SUP] January 2020 to curb the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19. Lifting of this quarantine is imminent. We modelled the effects of two key health interventions on the epidemic when the quarantine is lifted.
Methods: We constructed a compartmental dynamic model to forecast the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic at different quarantine lifting dates and investigated the impact of different rates of public contact and facial mask usage on the epidemic.
Results: We projected a declining trend of the COVID-19 epidemic if the current quarantine strategy continues, and Wuhan would record the last new confirmed cases in late April 2020. At the end of the epidemic, 65,733 (45,722-99,015) individuals would be infected by the virus, among which 16,166 (11,238-24,603, 24.6%) were through public contacts, 45,996 (31,892-69,565, 69.7%) through household contact, and 3,571 (2,521-5,879, 5.5%) through hospital contacts (including 778 (553-1,154) non-COVID-19 patients and 2,786 (1,969-4,791) medical staff). A total of 2,821 (1,634-6,361) would die of COVID-19 related pneumonia in Wuhan. Early quarantine lifting on 21[SUP]st[/SUP] March is viable only if Wuhan residents sustain a high facial mask usage of ≥85% and a pre-quarantine level public contact rate. Delaying city resumption to mid/late April would relax the requirement of facial mask usage to ≥75% at the same contact rate.
Conclusions: The prevention of a second epidemic is viable after the metropolitan-wide quarantine is lifted but requires a sustaining high facial mask usage and a low public contact rate.