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Influenza viruses resistant to oseltamivir, news and updates

Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

""kent nickell, we are not so much concerned about quick and appropriate
treatment of actual patients.""

Finding effective treatment for the few can translate into effective treatment for many (in many countries)

Also quick and appropriate treatment can help contain clusters...
 
Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Hopes and dreams (with a pseudo-math overlay)?
Knowing Gs as you do, that was almost funny.
To the comedy room you shall go with remarks like that.
 
Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Knowing Gs as you do, that was almost funny.
To the comedy room you shall go with remarks like that.
I was going to post an alternative methodology involving 100 pieces of paper numbered 1-100 and throwing them in the air, while closing my eyes and clicking my heals, but I excercised restraint.
 
Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Update through June 2 shows a major increase (doubling the total number of positives) in resistance in Japan (20 new positives in the most 184 most recent H1N1 cases):

SEARO Total 13 1 (8%)​
WPRO Australia 83 3 (4%)
China 1 0
China, Hong Kong SAR 581 68 (12%)
Guam 15 0
Japan 1544 42 (3%)
Malaysia 13 0
Mongolia 4 0
New Zealand 88 0
Philippines 37 0
Republic of Korea 99 0
Singapore 7 0​
WPRO Total 2472 113 (5%)​
Grand Total 6978 1077 (15%)

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/ResistanceTable200806013.pdf
 
Re: _|ANTIVIRALS RESISTANCE BAFFLED SCIENTISTS|_

Re: _|ANTIVIRALS RESISTANCE BAFFLED SCIENTISTS|_

I agree although I am not surely a specialist in this field...



I think the single viral isolation in Italy may be taken with caution...

It is hard to understand for me. Thus, I hope someone among the experts at Ft may clarified a bit this strange situation, also for people like me that cannot share the same level of knowledge.
Italy appears to be low due to a lag in sampling. Most countries that had low values in 2007 saw higher levels in 2008. In Japan, there was only 1 positive in late 2007 (out of 279). The numbers increased in 2008. In March, the postives were 3 out of 45 and more recently the numbers were 20 out of the last 186 so the recent frequency was 30 fold higher than late 2007.

In Italy there were 0 positives out of 94 tested in Dec 2007 or Jan 2008. In Feb the number was 1 in 12 and there was no testing after that, so Italy could easily have frequencies above 10% for the Feb-Apr months, but really has only tested 12 samples collected in that period (and 1 was positive).
 
Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Thank you dr Niman for the quick response.
 
Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

I was going to post an alternative methodology involving 100 pieces of paper numbered 1-100 and throwing them in the air, while closing my eyes and clicking my heals, but I excercised restraint.

Ohhh, the mental image!!

So based on your analysis, what is your estimate of probability in the next 12 months?
 
Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

I'm not so fluent in nimanese, but "hopes and dreams",
doesn't it mean, his estimate is larger ?

Waiting for some comment, which let's me establish
an upper bound now...

(and then improve the bounds)

People do have estimates, even when they say they don't.
 
Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Thank you dr Niman for the quick response.
The numbers in the US are also heavily skewed. So far all positive public sequences in the 2007/2008 season have been clade 2B (Brisbane/59 - like). The recent MMWR report on influenza in the US indicates 3/4 of the H1N1 isolates have been Solomon Island (clade 2A) and there were only 70 Brisbane. However, under the resistant section the number of H274Y positives is 84 (out of 824), which means that many more were tested (sequenced?) for resistance than reported as Brisbane.

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5715a4.htm

I have been mapping the positives based on sequence and this season there are 24 (11 in 2007) that have been made public so far and I have about 80 something Clade 2B isolates on my tree (but I think it has holes), so of the public sequences H274Y is in more than 30% on my tree (but the % with H274Y is probably a bit lower because I haven't filled in the holes which are from H274Y negative sequences).

In the US, the H1N1 frequency overall went down in 2008, so the total numbers are low in the US because of more Solomon Island at the beginning of the season, and more H3N2 at the end of the season.

Thus, for the US the frequency may have bene closer to 30% of Brisbane isolates, but largely limited to Dec 2007 and Jan 2008. Moreover, most of the H1N1 was said to be in western states, which isn't all that obvious from the public sequences, which clearly respresent a subset of the total (and the representation may be heavily biased because there also are not that many US public Solomon Island isolates from the 2007/2008 season).
 
Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

I'm not so fluent in nimanese, but "hopes and dreams",
doesn't it mean, his estimate is larger ?

Waiting for some comment, which let's me establish
an upper bound now...

(and then improve the bounds)

People do have estimates, even when they say they don't.

"Hopes and dreams" might translate into "not realistic".
His estimate is higher than yours, if I'm understanding correctly.
 
Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

CDC said:

> WHO collaborating laboratories had characterized 290 H1N1 :
> 200 were Solomon and 70 Brisbane
> 84 from 824 tested H1N1 had H274Y

[by any lab, not necessarily WHO-collaborating ?]

> 4 from 588 had H274Y in 2006/7

if all the resistant viruses were Brisbane, then we had
42% resistance in Brisbane !
I assume there was almost no Solomon in Europe,
all Brisbane
 
Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

13 Brisbane
1 Solomon
1 inbetween

2 Caledonia


the length of the horizontal lines alone determines the distance,
while vertical lines are only mental "connections" ?
 
Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

CDC said:

> WHO collaborating laboratories had characterized 290 H1N1 :
> 200 were Solomon and 70 Brisbane
> 84 from 824 tested H1N1 had H274Y

[by any lab, not necessarily WHO-collaborating ?]

> 4 from 588 had H274Y in 2006/7

if all the resistant viruses were Brisbane, then we had
42% resistance in Brisbane !
I assume there was almost no Solomon in Europe,
all Brisbane
The numbers from the MMWR really don't add up. The above data would be CDC data. In 2006/2007 there were five positives - four by CDC and one by SDI under NIAID.

All of the MMWR data would be by the CDC. If the ratio of 3/1 of Solomon to Brisbane held, then about 40% of the Brisbane isolate would have had H274Y as indicated earlier

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04200804/H274Y_Brisbane.html

So far there have only been 23 positive in the public sequences from the US this season and all are Brisbane. The percentage on released sequences is closer to 30%.

It is likely that the H274Y frequency in the US is 30-40% and all will be Brisbane (and I suspect the number of independent introductions will be markedly higher that the 3 seen for the first 23 - which I think will be true for other countries). Many will start with "Northern EU" and then spread to other clade 2B isolates that map to additional branches which contain isolates without H274Y.

Of course the more data that is released, the more problems for a "random mutation" explanation (which is why it is headed for the circular file).
 
Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Influenza Activity in Europe

During week 10 2008, the majority of European countries reported decreasing activity. Widespread influenza activity was reported in eight countries, regional activity in one country (Germany), local activity in six countries,
sporadic activity in 13 countries and no activity was reported in Wales. Influenza virus type B accounted for 63% of the total positive specimens collected during week 10 2008; however the majority of virus detections since the start of the season were influenza A (H1N1) viruses. Based on (sub)typing data of all influenza virus detections this season (N=13278; sentinel and non-sentinel data), 4871 (37%) were influenza A (unsubtyped), 4305 (32%) were A (H1), 121 (1%) were A (H3) and 3981 (30%) were B.

Based on the antigenic and/or genetic characterisation of 2913 influenza viruses, 60 were A/New Caledonia/20/99 (H1N1)-like, 1993 were A/Solomon Island/3/2006 (H1N1)-like, 17 were A/Wisconsin/67/2005 (H3N2)-like, 55 were A/Brisbane/10/2007 (H3N2)-like, 774 were B/Florida/4/2006-like (B/Yamagata/16/88 lineage) and 14 were B/Malaysia/2506/2004-like (B/Victoria/2/87 lineage).

Despite the mismatch of the circulating influenza B viruses with the vaccine strain, it is expected that the 2007/2008 vaccine still provides valuable protection due to cross reactive antibodies induced by the vaccine. A
number of recent A (H1N1) viruses are distinguishable from the vaccine virus in antigenic analyses. <b>As these viruses show better antigenic match to A/Brisbane/59/2007, the WHO has recommended that an A/Brisbane/59/2007-like virus is included in the vaccine for the 2008/2009 season. As there is still significant antigenic similarity, the present vaccine is expected to provide protection against the current H1N1 viruses.</b>

Influenza Weekly Surveillance Report
Week 11 2008 (10th? 16th March 2008)
A REPORT BY THE HEALTH PROTECTION SURVEILLANCE CENTRE
THE NATIONAL VIRUS REFERENCE LABORATORY &
THE DEPARTMENTS OF PUBLIC HEALTH

==============
Caught this on an internet search, posted 2002 meeting presentation slides.

http://images.medscape.com/pi/editorial/cmecircle/2002/1840/zangwill/slide11.gif

Influenza Viruses Resistant to Oseltamivir and Representing Three Distinct NA Genotypes Isolated by Hoffmann LaRoche from Clinical Studies Employing Oseltamivir as Treatment

Yes+, especially at lower infectious doses

H274Y ? interact with functional (histidine to tyrosine)
Only oseltamivir
A/New Caledonia/99
(H1N1)
[A/Texas/36/91-like]

Yes+, instability of NA but not enzyme activities
^E119V ? framework
(glutamic acid to valine)

Only oseltamivir
A/Wuhan/359/95-like
(H3N2)

Yes+ , serious effect on NA activity
*R292K ? functional
(arginine to lysine)

Both oseltamivir and zanamivir

A/Sydney/5/97-like
(H3N2)


Neuraminidase Inhibitor-Resistant Influenza Viruses May Differ Substantially in Fitness and Transmissibility. Webster et al. Antimicrob Agents Chemother. 2005 49(10):4075?4084.
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1251536

Several studies in animal models have examined the infectivity of NAI-resistant viruses with mutations at the conserved NA residues. These viruses exhibited reduced virulence in mice and ferrets (3, 14, 19, 33). However, A/Wuhan/359/95-like (H3N2) virus with the E119V NA mutation was recently reported to be transmitted as efficiently as the wild-type virus in ferrets (15). This finding contrasted with previous observations that A/Sydney/5/97-like (H3N2) influenza virus with the R292K NA mutation was not transmissible under conditions in which the wild-type virus was efficiently transmitted (14) and that A/New Caledonia/20/99-like (H1N1) virus with the H274Y NA mutation required a challenge dose 100 times higher and was less transmissible than the wild-type virus (14).

~

Webster/Hoffman LaRoche appear to have forecast the result obtained in the 2007-08 influenza season, although transmission efficiency results were not quite in line with reality.

I think the Tamiflu makers were well aware that these strains would give rise to drug resistant mutants. Nobody said peep-one that they were integral to years of commercial influenza vaccines, however, since it would result in a hard hit to drug sales (which had been flagging anyway, due to cautionary reports of child/adolescent drug neurological side effects, 2006-07 out of Japan and hit-ir-miss protection against seasonal influenza).

Far as I can tell, the influenza vaccine and antiviral drug industry set up conditions ripe for widespread resistance.
 
Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Seems that the Europeans just don't distinguish Solomon and Brisbane H1N1,
both are subsumed under Solomon.

> Yes+, especially at lower infectious doses

Are you saying H274Y preferrably occurs at lower infectious doses ? Why is it ?

> Far as I can tell, the influenza vaccine and antiviral drug industry set up conditions ripe for
> widespread resistance.

deliberately ? ["scientists are buffled..."]
I can't see how vaccine should contribute to drug resistance.
And whether drug use contributed is still being debated.
 
Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Antiviral mutation occurs when drug dosage is ineffective, when the drug is given too late to be effective, or when other factors interfere with drug efficacy. OR when environmental conditions provide selective pressure for naturally occurring polymorphisms (either single or multiple acquisitions).

" According to a study from the United States, "Antigenic variation is a viral strategy exploited to promote survival in the face of the host immune response and represents a major challenge for efficient vaccine development. Influenza viruses are pathogens with high transmissibility and mutation rates, enabling viral escape from immunity induced by prior infection or vaccination. Intense selection from neutralizing antibody drives antigenic changes in the viruses."

Perforin and Fas pathways affect influenza CD8+ escape variants. (2005)
Journal of Virology, July 2005, p. 8545-8559, Vol. 79, No. 13
http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/abstract/79/13/8545

The issue of widespread tamiflu resistance has nothing to do with drug use per se. It has everything to do with selection of naturally occurring but formerly low-abundance viral phenotypes. That is why pre drug use isolates demonstrating various polymorphic variations known to confer antiviral drug resistance were identified and reported quite some time ago (before significant antiviral resistance arose).

Why the heck do you think adamantane-derivative resistance came on like a sledgehammer? (essentially, one season).

Homo fecae, hetero deus.

If drug and vaccine companies knew of this polymorphic adaptation potential, and they continued to peddle product despite this knowledge, just what do suppose the sudden global acquisition of tamiflu-resistance is due to, gs?
 
Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

Re: _|ANTIVIRAL RESISTANCE BAFFLES SCIENTISTS|_

> pre drug use isolates demonstrating various polymorphic variations
> known to confer antiviral drug resistance were identified and
> reported quite some time ago (before significant antiviral resistance arose).

those polymorphisms were rare and the 31-mutation wasn't dominating


> adamantane-derivative resistance came on like a
> sledgehammer? (essentially, one season).

adamantane resistance grew from a few% to >90% in a few years (two?).
AFAIK it's still disputed whether drug use contributed

> Homo fecae, hetero deus

not found (typo?)

> If drug and vaccine companies knew of this polymorphic
> adaptation potential, and they continued to peddle product
> despite this knowledge, just what do suppose the sudden
> global acquisition of tamiflu-resistance is due to, gs?

they knew about the potential, but not that the danger was so big.
(see the headline of this thread)

I'm uncertain whether tamiflu-resistance is caused by drug use (50%)
 
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